LOGO SHORT VIEW: CHINA Source: Updated: Reporter: 06 英 2 王超

LOGO  Markets think they can see a victory sign coming from China. They believe China has somehow executed a “V-shaped” recovery from its slowdown – and that this justifies buying stocks elsewhere. 

LOGO Yesterday's CLSA purchasing managers index for China, like the official survey last week, showed a sharp rise to bring Chinese manufacturing back into expansion mode. This is the fifth gain in succession and the first reading showing an expansion in nine months. On a graph, it is a perfect V-shape. The post-Lehman recovery dates from the Chinese government's stimulus package in November.

LOGO Data from other countries suggest that they are beginning to export again. South Korea, for which China is a vital trading partner, has seen exports rise for three months in a row. April's exports were up 44 per cent from a horrific low in January. Yesterday brought news that exports from Brazil, a supplier of commodities to China, were all rising.

LOGO All of this has had a dramatic effect on stocks. Since they reached their nadir last autumn, Brazil's Bovespa index has risen 82.9 per cent, South Korea's Kospi is up 71.7 per cent, and the Shanghai Composite itself is up 50.2 per cent. Does this make sense? China's recovery from what looked like the risk of outright contraction only months ago is so swift as to prompt analysts to question the data. China's emphasis on government spending, rather than getting consumers to stop saving, does not help deal with longer-term global imbalances

LOGO  But stocks at one point priced in a headlong fall into the abyss. That fall does seem to have been averted. Emerging market shares fell far more than in developed markets. So there is justification for a rebound.

LOGO Words Nadir:the worst moment of a particular situation 1 Contraction:the process of becoming smaller 2 Headlong:with the head first and the rest of the body following 3 Abyss:a very deep wide space that seems to have no bottom 4

LOGO Background CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets is the leading, independent investment Group in Asia focused investment banking, capital markets, equity Broking and asset management services and product to global Corporate and institutional clients. CLAS is renowned for its service excellence, product innovation, and Award-winning market intelligence. Founded in 1986 and headquartered In Hong Kong, CLSA has more than 1,000 dedicated professionals located in 13 Asian cities, plus Dubai, London and New York.

LOGO Background 于 1986 年创办的里昂证券新兴市场 (“ 里昂证券 ”) 系里 昂集团旗下从事股票相关服务的专业机构，是亚洲、拉丁 美洲、东欧、中东及非洲领先的投资银行及股票经纪行， 在 29 个新兴市场设有分支机构，全球雇员超过 700 人。 作为一家卓越的投资银行, 里昂证券在亚洲, 特别是中 国内地和香港市场, 创造了骄人的筹资和发行业绩。从 1999 年到 2002 年迄今, 里昂证券协助企业集资总金额超过 了 370 亿美元。 里昂证券和里昂集团在全球各交易所的会籍使得里昂 证券与 65 个股票市场有着直接的联系, 是全球最大的股票 经纪商之一。

LOGO  第一段翻译  市场认为，它们看到了来自中国的胜利迹 象。它们相信，中国已设法摆脱经济减缓， 实现了 V 字形复苏，而这也为购买其它地方 的股票提供了理由。

LOGO  第四段翻译  这些动态对股市产生了戏剧性影响。自去 年秋季达到低谷以来，巴西 Bovespa 股指已 大涨 82.9% ，韩国 Kospi 股指大涨 71.7% ， 中国的上证综指也大涨了 50.2% 。

LOGO