T.D. McBride, William Scanlon, Jose Camacho, Alice Larson 2/16/11

Overview Topical areas in the scope of sub-sub committee Poverty/income Uninsured Unemployment Major points: these are inputs into other measures other groups are considering We are “in the weeds” and exploring complicated and important data and measurement issues

Poverty/income Data sources Likely we need to use American Community Survey (ACS), given it has samples at small areas Concerns: in small areas, need to use multi-year samples Larger than 65,000: 1-year sample; 20,000-65,000: 3-year; <20,000: 5-year samples Breakdown by county: Greater than 65,000 (805 counties or 25% of counties); 20,000-65,000 (1,083 or 34% of counties); Less than 20,000 (1,333, 41%) Concern that is raised: For the reasons above, and because of using longer time frame: In small areas there is a bigger confidence interval around estimate than in larger areas How to handle this? Recommendations? [no consensus yet]

Poverty/income [continued] Measures and thresholds Current method relates to 100% of official poverty line Concerns: Does not allow for consideration of levels that are higher (such as in the ACA) Does not recognize geographic cost-of-living (COL) adjustments Tied to centuries-old measure of poverty Possible solutions Use income rather than poverty to move away from poverty threshold Adjust for geographic differences in COL Problems with these adjustments Which COL measure to use? [committee has considered many alternatives but reached no consensus] Recently we discovered: Census is producing Supplemental Poverty Measure; we will explore Can data support anything other than number below poverty or <200% poverty in ACS? Recommendations? [no consensus yet]

Uninsured [NOTE: our discussion of this is at an early stage] Data sources Major controversies over multiple data sources: CPS, MEPS, SIPP, NHIS Concerns relate to many differences: measured at different points in time, using different time frames and questions Short- and long-term retrospective time frames Concerns over “Medicaid undercount” New data set in the neighborhood: ACS v. CPS Significant differences between counts from ACS and CPS In 2009: CPS: 50.7 million; ACS: 45.7 million Growing consensus in literature: Some (or many) controversies are unresolved, but… less difference between estimates than people think CPS estimate is close to others when you consider it a point in time estimate Recommendation? [no consensus yet]

Unemployment Methodological issue: unemployment is a very maligned concept by economists It undercounts the number of people looking for work; only counts those as unemployed if they are looking for work Better measure: the percent of non-elderly adults who are not employed Data source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), same as source for unemployment

Questions?