Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty Cedar River Sockeye Hatchery Proposed Adaptive Management Plan

Landsburg Dam Prior to fish passage improvements

Salmon Life Cycle Courtesy:Bellevue Utilities

Blockage to sockeye Natural spawning area Sockeye rearing area

Project Goals Meet sockeye mitigation concerns Meet sockeye mitigation concerns –Provide additional fishing opportunity –Avoid or minimize adverse effects

Project Background Mitigation responsibility to compensate for lost production potential due to blockage to sockeye at Landsburg Dam Mitigation responsibility to compensate for lost production potential due to blockage to sockeye at Landsburg Dam Sockeye fry hatchery improves survival allowing more fish to be produced than would be the case naturally. Sockeye fry hatchery improves survival allowing more fish to be produced than would be the case naturally. Hatcheries are being evaluated due to concerns about undesirable impacts on natural spawners Hatcheries are being evaluated due to concerns about undesirable impacts on natural spawners

Challenge How to achieve project benefits while minimizing risk in face of uncertainty? How to achieve project benefits while minimizing risk in face of uncertainty? For this project - How to operate a hatchery to produce more sockeye and provide additional fishing opportunity while minimizing risks to naturally spawning salmon populations and ecosystem? For this project - How to operate a hatchery to produce more sockeye and provide additional fishing opportunity while minimizing risks to naturally spawning salmon populations and ecosystem?

Approach Links hatchery production with natural production Emphasis on maintaining reproductive fitness Emphasis on limiting risks to naturally reproducing stocks Commitment to adaptive management

Adaptive Management Program Designed to: Designed to: –force definition of key uncertainties –focus limited monitoring funds on addressing key uncertainties –incorporate learning into future project decisions –incorporate scientific and public input in open decision making process

Uncertainty Hatchery effects are subject to scientific debate; many variables Hatchery effects are subject to scientific debate; many variables Project has 12 years of prototype testing; however, future conditions will change, leading to uncertainty of future effects Project has 12 years of prototype testing; however, future conditions will change, leading to uncertainty of future effects Lake Washington ecosystem is changing Lake Washington ecosystem is changing

Uncertainties What are they? What are they? Which are the most critical to meeting goals? Which are the most critical to meeting goals? –Production –Effects

Examples of Uncertainties Effects on reproductive potential of sockeye that spawn naturally Effects on reproductive potential of sockeye that spawn naturally Impacts on chinook Impacts on chinook Sufficiency of food supply in Lake Washington to support more fry Sufficiency of food supply in Lake Washington to support more fry Effects of release strategies on survival rates Effects of release strategies on survival rates

Addressing Uncertainty Formulating testable hypotheses Formulating testable hypotheses Monitoring and research Monitoring and research Analyses Analyses Project guidance Project guidance Updating program as questions are addressed and new ones develop Updating program as questions are addressed and new ones develop

Examples of Decisions Level of hatchery production Level of hatchery production Allocation of resources to monitoring activity Allocation of resources to monitoring activity Production strategies Production strategies

Decisions Who needs to be involved? Agencies (federal, state and local) Agencies (federal, state and local) Tribes Tribes Stakeholders (fishing groups, wild fish advocates) Stakeholders (fishing groups, wild fish advocates) Public Public

Decisions How to enhance credibility and acceptance? Scientific Guidance Scientific Guidance –Clear role for scientists in decision-making process –Technical Work Group selected for knowledge in applicable disciplines selected for knowledge in applicable disciplines –Independent Science Advisors used to provide peer review used to provide peer review

Decisions How to enhance credibility and acceptance? Public Involvement Public Involvement –Access to data –Open meetings –Public deliberation and decision-making –Public input

Summary Natural resource projects like this are experiments - some learning must occur by doing Natural resource projects like this are experiments - some learning must occur by doing Risk can be analyzed and incorporated into decisions (managed) despite uncertainty Risk can be analyzed and incorporated into decisions (managed) despite uncertainty

Summary Learning and decision-making processes are complex and require a structure that encourages: Learning and decision-making processes are complex and require a structure that encourages: –participation by affected parties –open access to information –sound scientific process –transparent process that incorporates evolving knowledge into project decisions