1 Road Transport Projections: April 2009 Base Tim Murrells & Yvonne Li Air Pollution Research in London – Transport & Noise Group Meeting Imperial College.

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Presentation transcript:

1 Road Transport Projections: April 2009 Base Tim Murrells & Yvonne Li Air Pollution Research in London – Transport & Noise Group Meeting Imperial College 6th July 2009

Road Transport Projections: Methodologies & Assumptions in April 2009 Version (1) DfT/TRL vehicle emission factors, emission degradation rates and fuel effects (finalised versions, April 2009) Euro 5/V and 6/VI vehicle emission standards and EU Fuel Quality Directives DfT traffic projections for GB (exc London): November 2008 BAU by road, vehicle, area type TfL traffic projections for London Revised data on vehicle speeds (road, vehicle, area type) Revised (higher) catalyst failure assumptions (DfT) Diesel car penetration rates reach 43% by 2020 (slower rate of increase than before) Different diesel/petrol car mix on different road types (more mileage by diesel cars on motorways) London LEZ (all phases included) Biofuel uptake and effects on emissions

Road Transport Projections: Methodologies & Assumptions in April 2009 Version (2) Revised vehicle turnover assumptions: –New vehicle sales –Vehicle survival rates –Other TfL fleet composition data (London buses & taxis) –Car fleet in N Ireland Revised cold start emission methodology Revised evaporative emission methodology

UK Road Transport Emissions: NO x

Causes of Changes in UK NO x Emissions in 2010

UK Road Transport Emissions: PM

Causes of Changes in UK PM Emissions in 2010

Other Pollutants: Projections completed for: NH 3, NMVOCs, CO and SO 2 N 2 O, CH 4