Grand Overview 1. Over consumption will lead to resource scarcity eventually 2. Resource scarcity changes traditional economi models and puts us in new territority 3. That time is near for fossil fuels as our energy foundation 4. New solutions do exist – implementation takes leadership and the ability to think big

What has changed in the last Year The Obama Unit is now established – insufficient Federal funding for alternative energy infrastructure. The Obama Unit is now established – insufficient Federal funding for alternative energy infrastructure. Optimistic discovery potential of new NG reserves keeps on BAU pathway Optimistic discovery potential of new NG reserves keeps on BAU pathway Despite a massive corporate oil spill in the Gulf BAU continues unabated Despite a massive corporate oil spill in the Gulf BAU continues unabated

Resource Scarcity Depression At any given time, humanity always thinks its doomed – yet we survive At any given time, humanity always thinks its doomed – yet we survive Don’t be depressed – be angry and be proactive Don’t be depressed – be angry and be proactive Consume less; Subversive messaging works; convince your peer network to consume less. Consume less; Subversive messaging works; convince your peer network to consume less. Become Fred Become Fred

Consumption is the sole end and purpose of all production Consumption is the sole end and purpose of all production Adam Smith – right up there with Aristotle!

1942 Lecture I do not think we will ever escape from the appalling squirrel-cage of economic confusion in which we have been madly turning for the last three centuries – the cage in which we landed ourselves by acquiescing in a social system based upon Envy and Avarice. A society in which consumption has to be artificially stimulated in order to keep production going is a society founded on trash and waste and such a society is a house built upon sand.I do not think we will ever escape from the appalling squirrel-cage of economic confusion in which we have been madly turning for the last three centuries – the cage in which we landed ourselves by acquiescing in a social system based upon Envy and Avarice. A society in which consumption has to be artificially stimulated in order to keep production going is a society founded on trash and waste and such a society is a house built upon sand.

Consumption with a Conscience

The traditional Economic Argument Does Not Scale!

Global Consequences of Global Consumption

And Now we are at an Interesting Point ($ for crude oil)  worldwide economic volatility

The Business As Usual Future – what’s the point – its time to grow up now JUST SAY NO TO THIS PATH

Continued Climate Change

What Are the BAU Options? LNG development LNG development “Clean Coal” “Clean Coal” Fast Breeder Reactors Fast Breeder Reactors Unconventional Oil sources (shale oil and tar sands) Unconventional Oil sources (shale oil and tar sands) Fastest gateway to energy economy Fastest gateway to energy economy Leads to Growth of GDP Leads to Growth of GDP Accelerates Global CO 2 Deposition Accelerates Global CO 2 Deposition Reinforces BAU – mine the planet Reinforces BAU – mine the planet

Breaking out of BAU  Consume less  Drive less  Plan ahead  Invest in Renewable Energy infrastructure  Have long term governmental goals  Requires some component of morality based decision making  Requires leadership  Requires world cooperation Is this just too Damn Hard to Do?

But Many Options Now Exist Solar PV Solar PV Solar CSP; Solar Thermal Electric Solar CSP; Solar Thermal Electric Wind (ON shore and Off Shore) Wind (ON shore and Off Shore) Alternative Fuels (biodiesel, ethanol (grain and celluolistic, hydrogen, hybrids) Alternative Fuels (biodiesel, ethanol (grain and celluolistic, hydrogen, hybrids) Biomass Co-Generation Biomass Co-Generation OTEC; Gulf Current OTEC; Gulf Current

Barriers to Renewables High capital cost; long payback times High capital cost; long payback times Lack of any vision or out of the box thinking on truly large scale projects Lack of any vision or out of the box thinking on truly large scale projects NIMBY reactions to anything and everything makes implementation difficult NIMBY reactions to anything and everything makes implementation difficult Technology uncertainty Technology uncertainty Electrical Grid limitations Electrical Grid limitations

Solar Pros and Cons Pros Pros Resource is available Resource is available CSP technology rapidly improving CSP technology rapidly improving Many small scale applications Many small scale applications Thermal Electric is dispatchable Thermal Electric is dispatchable Can co-locate with Fossil Plan Can co-locate with Fossil Plan Cons Cons Large $/Watt installation costs Large $/Watt installation costs Large Scale (1000 MW or greater) facilities difficult Large Scale (1000 MW or greater) facilities difficult Requires Significant Energy storage for 24x7 Requires Significant Energy storage for 24x7

Wind Pros and Cons Pros Pros Low levelized costs Low levelized costs Small footprint on the Land Small footprint on the Land Applicable on both large and small scale Applicable on both large and small scale Some wind resources is usually always present Some wind resources is usually always present Cons Cons Visual Pollution Visual Pollution Resource is erratic in nature and therefore requires energy storage Resource is erratic in nature and therefore requires energy storage Transmission line expense for remote wind farms is large Transmission line expense for remote wind farms is large

Transportation Changes Pros Pros Single biggest lever arm for energy conservation Single biggest lever arm for energy conservation Single biggest lever to mitigate climate change Single biggest lever to mitigate climate change Single biggest influence on development Single biggest influence on development Cons Cons Marx says we can’t Marx says we can’t Our whole economic structure is based on private vehicles Our whole economic structure is based on private vehicles Vast amounts of jobs are associated with our current structure Vast amounts of jobs are associated with our current structure

Indexing - Solar 1. ~20 (averaged over 24 hour day) = 1 1. ~20 (averaged over 24 hour day) = 1 2. ~3 tons per kw = 1 2. ~3 tons per kw = 1 3. ~3 jobs per MW 3. ~3 jobs per MW 4. ~10 MW per month 4. ~10 MW per month 5. ~3$ per watt real facility cost 5. ~3$ per watt real facility cost cents per KWH cents per KWH

OTEC; Gulf Current Pros Pros Has enough capacity to sustain world for centuries Has enough capacity to sustain world for centuries In situ Hydrogen Production for transport economy In situ Hydrogen Production for transport economy Cons Cons Gigantic up front costs Gigantic up front costs Engineering challenge Engineering challenge Requires world cooperation Requires world cooperation

Evaluation Rubric For All forms of Renewables 1. MW output per surface area (MW/KM 2 ) 2. MW output per material use (MW/Ton) 3. MW output per job created (Jobs/MW) 4. MW output versus production time scale to bring on line (months/MW) 5. Capital cost per MW ($/Watt) 6. Realistic Levelized Cost (cents per KWH)

To Evaluate Electricity Generating Technologies Develop an internally consistent indexing system for the 6 attributes listed previously (the dow jones is an index) Use real world data and real world physics to best determine the values Weight the indexes appropriately (real world cares about $/Watt and Jobs Created) Choose Baseline – we will use Solar in the following exercise

IndexSolarWindWavesBiomass Cumulative Index = 1+2+(1.5) (5)+1.25(6)

Relative Ranking Solar = 7 Solar = 7 Waves =7.5 Waves =7.5 Biomass =11 (because of jobs created) Biomass =11 (because of jobs created) Wind = 24 (because of excellent material ratio and low Levelized costs) Wind = 24 (because of excellent material ratio and low Levelized costs)

Thinking Big -Solar Sonoran Desert Project: Sonoran Desert Project: 300,000 square 2% coverage yields 100,000 MW

Thinking Big - Wind Lake Michigan Wind project down North South Axis: Populate 400 x 30 km box with 30 legs each containing MW turbines: 180,000 MW

Thinking Real Big - Wind Great Prairie Wind Farm with 100 MW vertical Wind Turbines: Construct 10,000 of these (Space Needle Size) and each per 125 square km. This produces 1TW of electricity and effectively replaces all other forms of electricity generation in the US.

Be Optimistic Change can occur – this class is part of this process Individual attitudes matter and multiply (Ideas are Bulletproof) European Union is providing a good example of government driven initiatives for a new energy economy Technology is rapidly improving Wisdom can be re-acquired –remember Fred!