Weather Patterns and What’s on the Ground Is this a drought year?

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Presentation transcript:

Weather Patterns and What’s on the Ground Is this a drought year?

SeasonSWE as of 01/08 Season SWE ?10 in in in in.24.5 in in in in.64.8 in. (6 th biggest winter on record :3.44 in in in in. 7 drier winters as of 1/8/2006 (8.57 in SWE):

Snow Depth 1/12/06: 102 in. Running SWE 1/12/06: in.

Steenburgh et al in “One Hundred Inches in One Hundred Hours: Evolution of a Wasatch Mountain Winter Storm Cycle” (2003) describe the intrusion of low equivalent potential temperature (  e ) air aloft in advance of a surface based cold front. Vertical motion maxima accompany the low level zone of warm advection.

Forecasting "A computer lets you make mistakes faster than any other invention, with the possible exception of handguns and tequila." - D. W. McArthur

Photo from Dragon’s Tail 2: 1/6/2006

Striations!

Cornice 2.0 Nearest Neighbors Forecasting System. Plots meteorological variables in a multidimensional space. Variables are scaled (0-100) to take into account differences in units. A genetic algorithm then assigns weights to each of the variables used, since certain variables are more important than others. Historic morning observations for Main Lodge which most closely resemble today (neighbors) are found and ranked according to a Euclidean distance. Today’s forecast consists of today’s observations plus the previous three days. Neighbors are found based on closest days and previous three days to that day.

MESOWEST University of Utah Department of Meteorology ( /mesowest/) - allows us to easily view and plot current and historical weather data for our 5 weather sites - data comes directly off our patrol page - >10,000 actively reporting stations located throughout western US