2008 and Beyond: A new electoral landscape? Todd Donovan Western Washington University

Themes What might be unprecedented about the 2008 election? Any change in the party system on horizon?

Stability and Change in US Election Most elections replicate past results Some are “realignments” 1932, 1968, New landscape, new coalitions

Recent Electoral Coalitions New Deal New Deal Democrats strongest in South; GOP in NE Regan Revolution Regan Revolution as precursor Clinton coalition as interlude Stalemate Stalemate

New Deal Coalition 1930s Democrats dominate Congress & White House GOP success with White House 1952 Dems enduring majority party GOP = West, New England, OH/IN Dems = South, PA, NY, MA, unions, blue collar, Catholics Issue: New Deal economics Issue: New Deal economics

New Deal Coalition 1944 FDR 432 (53.4) Dewey 99 (45.9) GOP competitive in CA, NY, IL, MI, CT, PA…

Post New Deal Coalition 1968 Humphrey 191 (42.7) Nixon 301 (43.4) Wallace 46 (13%) Democratic Party in South splitting Issue: Race

Post New Deal Coalition 1976 Carter 297 (55%) Ford 240 (45%) Last time Dems carry the South

Post New Deal Coalition After 1968 New issue divide drives people to different parties No majority party: Divided government Civil rights drives white southerners away from New Deal coalition Takes decades for GOP to get fully established in South

Reagan Revolution Realignment of South to GOP deepens Dems down to 30% of white southern vote Rocky Mountain West more solidly GOP What was changing? Decline of class-based voting (not income) rise of ‘values’ issues & values voters in GOP coalition Emerging gender split in voting

Reagan Revolution RR 50.7% End of Democratic dominance in South GOP gains in US House GOP controls US Senate

Reagan Revolution Bush 426 (53%) Dukakis 111 (46) Democrats maintain control of US House; regain Senate

Clinton Coalition (interlude) Clinton wins some South (not down ballot) End of Democratic Majorities in Congress Higher gender gap, higher urban / rural gap; economic concerns high Democrats party of the two coasts Polarization of parties?

Clinton Coalition = GOP gains incumbent Dem Senators lose (GA, NC) 2 incumbent GOP Senators lost (CA, WI) Net loss of 9 Dem House seats (AR, GA, AL, FL, SC) 1994 Dems lose 54 US House Seats, lose majority Southerners, Whites, men largest vote shift to GOP

Clinton Coalition Clinton 370 (43%) Bush 168 (37%) LA, AR, TN, KY, FL all Dem lose Dems lose seats in US House, lose 55 seats in ‘94

Clinton Coalition Clinton 379 (49%) Dole 159 (41%) LA, AR, MO, TN, KY, FL all Dem.

: Deadlock Near even division presidential election a tie Senate a tie, US House 12 seats Old South now solid GOP (not so much with AR, LA, FL) Social issues, security trumped economics in 2000, 2004

: Deadlock Rise of large generational split 2000 & % of those under 30 voted Democrat If they vote…. Growth of Latino vote (8% in 2004) trending Democrat (out of FL) 2006 Midterm vote referendum on Bush

The Old (?) Map 2000 Stalemate 2000 Stalemate Bush 271 (48%) Gore 266 (48.4) NH, OH GOP NM, IA Dem

The Old (?) Map 2004 Stalemate 2004 Stalemate Bush 286 (53%) Kerry 251 (47%) NH Dem NM, OH, IA GOP

A Realignment in 2008? ?? “Durable change in party coalitions” New issues that break old coalitions New parties High interest, high turnout

What Changed in 2008? GOP Nomination of “Outsider” No clear consensus about candidate High turnout Not leading in fundraising Defending 12 of 13 most vulnerable Senators

What Changed in 2008? Democrats Nomination of “Outsider” No clear consensus Huge generation split Huge racial split Modest gender split High turnout Nearly as high as 1972 Lead in fundraising

McCain vs Obama Dynamic Different than McCain vs. Clinton Obama and the west a new coalition (CO, NV, AZ, WI, MN, OR, WA) Clinton and the Midwest the old coalition (OH, PA) Both appealed to independent voters

Where was the Change? New Map: West more “Blue” IN +11 Obama ND + 9 Obama MT +9 Obama NE +9 Obama (+1 EC vote) DE +9 Obama UT +8 Obama VT +8 Obama MA +8 Obama VA +7 Obama (+13 EC votes)

Where was the Change? New Map: West more “Blue” NV +7 Obama (+5 EC votes) NM +7 Obama (+ 5 EC votes) CT +7 Obama WI +7 Obama CA +7 Obama CO +7 Obama (+ 9 EC votes) SD +6 Obama MI +6 Obama NC +6 Obama (+ 15 EC votes)

Where was the Change? New Map… MD + 6 Obama GA +6 Obama KS +5 Obama Same old thing WA + 5 Obama ME + 4 Obama IA, FL, NH, NJ, NY, PA + 4 Obama (+ 34 EC votes) OH + 2 Obama (+20 EC votes)

No change…. Many w/ GOP gains over 2004 OK AR AL LA TN KY WV

Who is changing? Age Young voters (% Dem) % 54% 66% (+18 vs. Gore) Over 65 voters % 48% 45% (-5 vs Gore)

Who is changing? Partisans Independents (% Dem) % 49% 52% (+7 vs. Gore)

Who is changing? Race/Ethnicity African Americans (% Dem) % 88% 95% Latinos (% Dem) % 53% 67%

Who is changing? Race/Ethnicity White women (% Dem) % 44% 46% (-2 vs. Gore) White men (% Dem) % 37%41% (+5 vs Gore)

What is Changing? Issue effects Economy top concern again Iraq fading…. Any realigning issue? slavery, industrialization, Great Depression, Civil Rights...

Shades of Realignment First Dem w/ popular majority since Carter Big Dem gains in US Senate (+7?) OR, NM, CO, VA, NC, NH (AK, MN, GA in play) LBJ Last Dem to carry seats (+2 in 1964) RR came in w/ +12 Senate seats in 1980 Dem gains in US House 1930s Last time a party gained +20 in 2x elections

Shades of Realignment 2008 a referendum on Bush, the economy Any Democrat would have won… What realigning issue? Can Democrats build an enduring majority? New coalition based on younger voters, people of color, Independents, westerners…..