1 Week 4 Decision Support System (DSS)/ Intelligent DSS

2 Case Scenario ABC Enterprise is a multinational company that offers multimedia content services in several regions in Asia. It has more than 2000 suppliers serving 6 millions content subscribers. For a company of this size, a major problem is to maintain its efficient operation with minimum costs. One problem that has caused trouble in the company’s information system’s department is how to maintain its more than 2000 suppliers. Every year, they have to retain or hire new suppliers from thousands of external application. The CEO of the company, Mr. Ridzuan wishes that the process of selecting supplier can be controlled in order to maximize its return. Thus, Mr. Ridzuan is thinking whether there is any system that can be built to assist in making decision of selecting new supplier based on criteria such as technical expertise, job quality, costs etc.

3 Concept of Decision Support Systems (DSS) DSS are interactive computer-based systems, which help decision makers utilize data and models to solve unstructured problems (Scott Morton, 1971) Decision support systems couple the intellectual resources of individuals with the capabilities of the computer to improve the quality of decisions. It is a computer-based support system for management decision makers who deal with semi-structured problems (Keen and Scott Morton, 1978) DSS: means different things to different people There is no universally accepted definition of DSS

4 DSS terms DSS is closely associated with the terms Online Analytical Processing (OLAP) and Data Warehousing (DW) OLAP refers to querying and accessing on- line database DW refers to specific technical architectures for storing and accessing large amounts of data

5 Characteristics and Capabilities of DSS DSS Provide support in semi-structured and unstructured situations. Support for various managerial levels. Support all phases of the decision-making process. Goal is to improve the effectiveness of decision making. Decision makers can make better, more consistent decisions in a timely manner.

6 DSS Components 1. Data Management Subsystem 2. Model Management Subsystem 3. Knowledge Management Subsystem 4. User Interface Subsystem 5. The User

7 Data Management Model Management Knowledge Management User Interface User Other Systems DSS Architecture

8 The Data Management Subsystem A data management system (DMS) is a computer program designed to manage a database (a large set of structured data), and run operations on the data requested by numerous clients. The DMS can be interconnected with the corporate data warehouse. Typical examples of DMS use include accounting, human resources and customer support systems. Some of the capabilities of DMS in a DSS are: Captures/extracts data for inclusion in a DSS database. Interrelates data from different sources. Performs complex data manipulation tasks based on user queries.

9 Data in DSS ETL DW ERP POS Mining Reports OLAP ODS Content Mgmt Product specs, web docs, video files, ads, CAD, R&D docs, word processing docs, , project plans, forms, audio files, brochures, manuals, legal contracts, graphic designs Unstructured Structured KNOWLEDGEKNOWLEDGE

10 The Model Management Subsystem The model base management system (MBMS) is a computer program that includes financial, statistical, management science or other quantitative models that provide the system’s analytical capabilities and appropriate software management. Usually, the models are customized using modeling languages (programming tools). Some of the capabilities of MBMS in a DSS are: Allows user to manipulate the models so they can conduct experiments and sensitivity analyses ranging from ‘what-if” to goal seeking. Catalogs and displays the directory of models for use by several individuals in the organization.

11 Categories of Models Optimization get the highest level of goal attainment from a given set of resources. Heuristics "rules of thumb" to arrive at satisfactory solutions. Simulation predict behavior of a system over time. Sensitivity analysis change inputs or parameters and look at model results. 2 approaches: What-if analysis – forward solution approach. Goal seeking – backward solution approach.

12 The Knowledge Management Subsystem Many unstructured and even semi-structured problems are so complex that their solutions require expertise. This can be provided by an expert system or other intelligent system. Some of the capabilities of KMS in a DSS are: Provides expertise in solving complex unstructured and semi-structured problems What models to use, how, and interpreting results Reasoning, handling uncertainty and learning from data Expertise provided by an expert system or other intelligent system (AI techniques)

13 Example: Knowledge Representation Production Rule (IF..THEN..ELSE) Examples: IF your income is high THEN your chance of being audited by the IRS is high. IF your income is high THEN your chance of being audited by the IRS is high ELSE your chance for being audited is lower. IF your income is high OR your deductions are unusual THEN your chance of being audited by the IRS is high ELSE your chance for being audited is low.

14 The User Interface (Dialog) Subsystem User interface (of a computer program) refers to the graphical, textual and auditory information the program presents to the user, and the control sequences (such as keystrokes with the computer keyboard, movements of the computer mouse, and selections with the touch screen) the user employs to control the program.

15 The User Managers Staff specialists Intermediary: 1. Staff assistant 2. Business (system) analyst 3. Group DSS Facilitator

16 Distinguishing DSS from Management Science and MIS DSS is a problem solving tool and is frequently used to address ad hoc and unexpected problems. DSS evolve as they develop.

17 DSS Example Expert Choice (HR Employee) (Vendor Selection) ProAct solutions.com/software/proact/screenshots/prodProf.htm (Product/Customer Profitability) solutions.com/software/proact/screenshots/prodProf.htm

18 Intelligence Density Dimension Response speed Flexibility Ease of use Computing resources