The August 9, 2001 Lake Breeze Severe Weather Event Across New York and Western New England Thomas A. Wasula NOAA/NWS WFO at Albany.

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Presentation transcript:

The August 9, 2001 Lake Breeze Severe Weather Event Across New York and Western New England Thomas A. Wasula NOAA/NWS WFO at Albany

Motivation  CSTAR II Project –Northeast Warm Season Severe Weather –Identify the role terrain features and land/water boundaries (i.e. Great Lakes, Long Island Sound, Chesapeake Bay, etc.) have on convective development and evolution –Several case studies will analyzed and a climatology will attempt to be developed –Mesoscale datasets (observational and model)

Contributors to CSTAR II Project  Thomas Niziol, (MIC) WFO at Buffalo  Bob LaPlante, (SOO) WFO at Cleveland  Steven Zubrick, (SOO) WFO at Sterling  Dr. Lance Bosart, University at Albany  Dr. Daniel Keyer, University at Albany  Warren Snyder, (SOO) WFO at Albany

Data  Surface and Upper Air Data (SPC)  Soundings from SPC archive  40-km RUC, 80 km ETA grids  Satellite imagery  Radar data (High resolution KENX Archive Level IV)

Background August 9, 2001 Event  A hot and very humid air mass was in place over NY and New England  Surface temps ranging from 32˚C to 37˚C (Syracuse high temp of 100˚F )  Surface dewpoints 20-25˚C coupled with large values of surface based CAPE (exceeding 2000 J/kg)  Numerous reports of straight line wind damage (60 to 80 mph) in the Mohawk Valley and hail to the size of hen eggs (2 inches or 5.1 cm)

Severe Weather Reports

Storm Reports across Northeast NY-VT-NH-ME 21 Wind Reports 2 Hail Reports

9 AUG 2001/1200 UTC 500 hPa Raob Heights, Temps and Isotachs

9 AUG 2001/1200 UTC 850 hPa Raob Heights, Temps, Dewpoints and Isotachs

9 AUG 2001/1200 UTC 250 hPa Raob Heights, Temps and Isotachs

9 AUG 2001/1200 UTC ALB Sounding

9 AUG 2001/1200 UTC BUF Sounding

10 AUG 2001/0000 UTC BUF Sounding

10 AUG 2001/0000 UTC ALB Sounding

Lake Ontario SST’s

SPC1300 UTC and 1630 UTC DAY 1

ETA: 9 August 2001/1200 UTC Initial Analysis MSLP (hPa) Solid lines and (hPa) thickness dashed 500 hPa Heights (dam) solid lines and Absolute Vorticity (10x -5 s -1 ) shaded

ETA: 9 August 2001/1200 UTC Initial Analysis 250 hPa Heights (dam) Solid lines and Isotachs (m s -1 ) shaded 850 hPa Heights (dam) solid lines, and Theta-e (K) dashed and shaded (every 5K)

ETA: 9 AUG 2001/1200 UTC Initial Analysis 500 hPa Vorticity Advection (x s -1 ) shaded and Heights (dam) solid lines 250 hPa Heights (dam) solid lines and Isotachs (m s -1 ) shaded

ETA: 9 August 2001/1200 UTC 6-hr and 12-hr Forecasts for 1800 UTC and 0000 UTC

ETA: 9 August 2001/1200 UTC 6-hour Forecast for 18 UTC MSLP (hPa) Solid lines and (hPa) thickness dashed 500 hPa Heights (dam) solid lines and Absolute Vorticity (10x -5 s -1 ) shaded

ETA: 9 August 2001/1200 UTC 6-hour Forecast for 18 UTC 250 hPa Heights (dam) Solid lines and Isotachs (m s -1 ) shaded 850 hPa Heights (dam) solid lines, and Theta-e (K) dashed and shaded (every 5K)

ETA: 9 AUG 2001/1200 UTC 6- hr forecast for 1800 UTC 700 hPa Heights (m) solid lines and omega (microbars/second); Warm colors indicate ascent and cool colors descent 850 hPa Winds (kts), hPa lapse rates (°C) and theta-e (K) shaded

ETA: 9 August 2001/1200 UTC 12-hour Forecast for 00 UTC MSLP (hPa) Solid lines and (hPa) thickness dashed 500 hPa Heights (dam) solid lines and Absolute Vorticity (10x -5 s -1 ) shaded

ETA: 9 August 2001/1200 UTC 12-hour Forecast for 0000 UTC 250 hPa Heights (dam) Solid lines and Isotachs (m s -1 ) shaded 850 hPa Heights (dam) solid lines, and Theta-e (K) dashed and shaded (every 5K)

1500 UTC 9 AUG 2001 Surface Analysis

1745 UTC 9 AUG 2001 Visible Satellite

1800 UTC 9 AUG 2001 Surface Analysis

1845 UTC 9 AUG 2001 Visible Satellite

2215 UTC 9 AUG 2001 Visible Satellite

40 km RUC Analyses 9 AUG 2001/ UTC

RUC: 9 August 2001/1500 UTC Analysis 2-meter Temps (˚C) Solid lines shaded 32˚C and greater and 10 meter winds (knots) 2-meter Dewpoints (˚C) and 10 meter winds (knots)

RUC: 9 August 2001/1600 UTC Analysis 2-meter Temps (˚C) Solid lines shaded 32˚C (every 2)and greater and 10 meter winds (knots) 2-meter Dewpoints (˚C) and 10 meter winds (knots)

RUC: 9 August 2001/1700 UTC Analysis 2-meter Temps (˚C) Solid lines shaded 32˚C (every 2)and greater and 10 meter winds (knots) 2-meter Dewpoints (˚C) and 10 meter winds (knots)

RUC: 9 August 2001/1800 UTC Analysis 2-meter Temps (˚C) Solid lines shaded 32˚C (every 2)and greater and 10 meter winds (knots) 2-meter Dewpoints (˚C) and 10 meter winds (knots)

RUC: 9 August 2001/1800 UTC Analysis MSLP (hPa) Solid lines and hPa thickness (dam) Pressure tendency (mb/hour)

RUC: 9 August 2001/1900 UTC Analysis 2-meter Temps (˚C) Solid lines shaded 32˚C (every 2)and greater and 10 meter winds (knots) 2-meter Dewpoints (˚C) and 10 meter winds (knots)

RUC: 9 August 2001/2000 UTC Analysis 2-meter Temps (˚C) Solid lines shaded 32˚C (every 2)and greater and 10 meter winds (knots) 2-meter Dewpoints (˚C) and 10 meter winds (knots)

RUC: 9 August 2001/2100 UTC Analysis 2-meter Temps (˚C) Solid lines shaded 32˚C (every 2)and greater and 10 meter winds (knots) 2-meter Dewpoints (˚C) and 10 meter winds (knots)

2100 UTC 9 AUG 2001 Surface Analysis

AUG UTC Surface Analysis with Radar and Satellite

RUC: 9 August 2001/2200 UTC Analysis 2-meter Temps (˚C) Solid lines shaded 32˚C (every 2)and greater and 10 meter winds (knots) 2-meter Dewpoints (˚C) and 10 meter winds (knots)

0000 UTC 10 AUG 2001 Surface Analysis

KENX Radar Analysis Highlights of the Severe Weather Event across New York and Western New England

1958 UTC KENX 0.5° Base Reflectivity

2100 UTC KENX 0.5° Base Reflectivity

2142 UTC KENX VIL Product

2141 UTC KENX Comp Ref X-Section Herkimer Co. Storm

2146 UTC KENX 0.5° SRM and MESO Product

2156 UTC KENX COMP REF2156 UTC KENX Echo Tops

2156 UTC KENX VIL Product2156 UTC KENX 0.5° Velocity

2156 UTC KENX Comp Ref X-Section Herkimer Co. Storm

2202 UTC KENX VIL Product VIL=80 kg/m^ 2

2212 UTC KENX 0.5° SRM and MESO Product

2258 UTC KENX 0.5° Base REF2258 UTC KENX 0.5° Velocity

0000 UTC KENX 0.5° Base REF2354 UTC KENX VWP

0057 UTC KENX 0.5° Base Reflectivity

Preliminary Results  Lake breeze boundary from Lake Ontario sparked a cluster of well-organized severe thunderstorms, some of which were supercellular (marginal shear)  Boundary interacted with a hot, humid and unstable air mass and continued over a large area  850 hPa theta-e values advected into central and eastern NY in excess of 350K  Surface based CAPE values well in excess of 2000 J/kg (as high as possibly 5000 J/kg) provided plenty instability and surface dewpoints in excess of 21°C an incredible amount of moisture

Future Work  To further explore mesoscale observational and model data (10-km ETA and 20-km RUC)  Create cross-sections of the evolution and movement of the lake breeze boundary  To compare this case with other possible Lake Ontario and Lake Erie cases