13 July 2004 STC Directors VideoConference W. Jeffrey Hughes, Director What is Space Weather? The Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling –Research Results and Plans –Education & Knowledge Transfer –Organization

13 July 2004 STC Directors VideoConference Basic Elements of Space Weather: The Sun is a remarkably constant object as viewed in visible light. After taking ~million-years to reach the Sun’s surface, photons take just ~8 minutes to travel to Earth. The Sun’s irradiance is nearly constant at 1370 W/m 2, varying only fractionally over a solar cycle.

13 July 2004 STC Directors VideoConference What is Space Weather? The Sun as imaged recently by SOHO in white light

13 July 2004 STC Directors VideoConference The Sun as imaged in white light by SOHO on 29 October 2003

13 July 2004 STC Directors VideoConference The Sun as imaged by SOHO in EUV (Extreme Ultraviolet 195 A) at about the same time

13 July 2004 STC Directors VideoConference

13 July 2004 STC Directors VideoConference

13 July 2004 STC Directors VideoConference

13 July 2004 STC Directors VideoConference

13 July 2004 STC Directors VideoConference

13 July 2004 STC Directors VideoConference The Solar Wind creates the Magnetosphere

13 July 2004 STC Directors VideoConference

13 July 2004 STC Directors VideoConference The Aurora imaged in UV by DE2 The Auroral Oval as imaged by the DE satellite in ultraviolet light

13 July 2004 STC Directors VideoConference

13 July 2004 STC Directors VideoConference

13 July 2004 STC Directors VideoConference GOES Solar Proton Flux GOES Solar X-ray Flux GOES Magnetic Field

13 July 2004 STC Directors VideoConference EPRI, 1996 How are We Affected by Space Weather? NASA Ionosphere L1 L2 GPS Receiver GPS R. Viereck, NOAA/SEC Telstar 401 Satellite Systems Power Transmission Space Habitation Nav/ Comm Systems

13 July 2004 STC Directors VideoConference November 6, 1997 Sun Earth ? Coronal Mass Ejection Observed by SOHO LASCO C2 Coronagraph Coronal mass ejections are observed in the solar wind. However, final destination and strength are difficult to predict – MODELS ARE AN IMPERATIVE ! BRING ON THE VIRTUAL REALITY!

13 July 2004 STC Directors VideoConference Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling GOAL: Create a physics-based numerical simulation model that describes the space environment from the Sun to the Earth. USES: Scientific tool for increased understanding of the complex space environment. Specification and forecast tool for space weather prediction. Education tool for teaching about the space environment. MANDATE: in the National Space Weather Program plan

13 July 2004 STC Directors VideoConference CISM Goals Introduce Sun-to-Earth Community Models into space physics Introduce physics-based numerical models into space weather operational prediction and forecasting Imbue the notion that sun-earth science is a single unified discipline

13 July 2004 STC Directors VideoConference Inner Magnetosphere Coupled Physics-based Model Solar Corona MAS Solar Wind ENLIL Ionosphere TING Active Regions SEP Ring Current RCM Radiation Belts Exosphere Plasmasphere MI Coupling Magnetosphere LFM

13 July 2004 STC Directors VideoConference CISM Organization Solar/Heliosphere, Magnetosphere, and ITM Thrusts: Research directed towards constructing or improving the component models. Code Coupling Thrust: Defines and/or develops computational science coupling tools; Couples component models into comprehensive model. Validation and Metrics Thrust: Tests and validates the comprehensive models. Empirical & Forecast Modeling Thrust: Develops comprehensive empirical model. Knowledge Transfer: Provides the models to the research and forecasting communities. Education and Diversity: Uses models in education programs.

13 July 2004 STC Directors VideoConference Solar/Heliosphere Magnetosphere Ionosphere/ Thermosphere Thrusts Time (years) Technology Gen 1 OOP 1 Gen 0 Ad Hoc Gen 2 OOP 2 Gen 2 OOP 2 Gen 2 OOP 2 Gen 1 OOP 1 Gen 1 OOP 1 Gen 0 Ad Hoc Gen 0 Ad Hoc Code Coupling Model Validation Community Access CISM Numerical Model Development Plan

13 July 2004 STC Directors VideoConference May 12, 1997 Event – CISM Initial MHD Results Dynamic pressure pulse in correct ambient solar wind test

13 July 2004 STC Directors VideoConference CME Propagation to 5 AU Black Contours: B out of plane (flux rope) Red Contours: scaled density

13 July 2004 STC Directors VideoConference

13 July 2004 STC Directors VideoConference CISM Summer School 2004 Material: the space environment (reality), effects of the environment on technical systems (harsh reality), and the use of models (virtual reality). Target audience: beginning graduate students; young professionals from NOAA, Air Force, industry. Dates: July 26– August Oversubscribed: over 40 applications, 32 attending. Goal: to provide a national resource for space weather education that presents the entire sun-earth system as a unified whole

13 July 2004 STC Directors VideoConference CISM Graduate Student Retreat Essex Conference Center, Essex MA September CISM PhD students from 4 Institutions spent the weekend together. Goals & Activities: –Get to know each other. –Obtain an overview of CISM. –Discuss Science Ethics “On Being a Scientist” –Learn Graduate Student Survival Skills (Thanks to David Murr and Niescja Turner)

13 July 2004 STC Directors VideoConference NOAA Space Environment Center Forecast Operations Center, Boulder, Colorado

13 July 2004 STC Directors VideoConference CISM Director W. J. Hughes Assistant Dir. K. Nottingham ITM Killeen/Solomon NCAR Magnetosphere M. Hudson Dartmouth Solar & SW J. Luhmann Berkeley A. Richmond A. Burns W. Wang G. Lu N. Maruyama G. Millward NCAR A. Sussman, J. Drake Maryland J. Lyon A. Clark S. Merkine BU D. K.-Varbam G. Fisher I. Roth T. Magara W. Abbett Y. Li Berkeley P. Scherrer T. Hoeksema Yang Liu K. Hayashi Stanford J. Linker Z. Mikic P.Riley R. Lionello SAIC D. Odstrcil G.de Toma CU N. Crooker M. Owens BU J. Hughes G. Siscoe H. Spence BU M.Wiltberger NCAR F. Toffoletto A. Chan T. Hill S. Sazykin Rice NSF OIA GEO Advisory Council CISM Organizational Chart V. Pizzo NOAA/SEC J. Drake Maryland Code Coupling C. Goodrich BU Science Advisor G. Siscoe BU S. Gibson NCAR N. Arge AFRL M.Wiltberger, W. Wang NCAR J. Linker, R. Lionello, Z. Mikic SAIC D. Odstrcil CU F. Toffoletto S. Sazykin Rice J. Hughes C. Goodrich M. Owens S. Merkine BU R. Lopez N. Turner UTEP S. Solomon G.de Toma A. Burns NCAR R. Lal M. Schamschula A. Tan AAMU N. Arge AFRL Validation H. Spence BU KT & FM D. Baker CU H. Singer T. Onsager NOAA/SEC R. Weigel M. Gehmeyr S. Elkington X. Li CU G. Siscoe N. Crooker H. Spence BU D. Vassiliadis GSFC N. Arge AFRL Ed & Div R. Lopez UTEP G. De Francis Dartmouth J. Hughes BU N. Turner R. Bruntz UTEP R. Lal AAMU R. Johnson NCAR P. Reiff Rice D. Scherrer Stanford B. Lotko J. Lyon B. Kress P. Ricci Dartmouth B. Lotko D. Murr S. Shephard Dartmouth H. Spence J. Hughes BU Boston Univ Provost Dean of A&S G. Crowley SwRI S. Elkington CU