Agriculture – Global, Regional and National Issues in Perspective Mangala Rai President National Academy of Agricultural Sciences New Delhi, India

Where We Stand ? First World Food Summit promised to “eradicate world hunger within a decade”. Since then, 3 World Food Summits held and resolved to reduce world hunger only to half by 2015. Different scenarios depict 2.3% to 3.3% global economic growth and population varying from 8.1 to 14.0 billion in 2080.

People at risk of hunger, baseline projection REF-01 Million 2000 2010 2020 2030 2050 Africa 198 253 289 319 326 Asia, East 172 142 111 80 35 Asia, South 359 361 303 219 72 Latin America 58 61 55 51 30 Middle East & N. Africa 43 50 49 39 Rest of World 53 47 46 33 World 884 918 854 765 536

Impact of climate change on land suitability and potential production of cereals on current rainfed cultivated land, HadCM3 A2, 2020s, 2050s, 2080s Source: Fischer et al., 2008.

Impact of climate change on land suitability and potential production of cereals on rainfed cultivated land, HadCM3 A2 2080s Source: Fischer et al., 2008.

Economic Impacts of Climate Change Hadley A1F1 Scenario 2080 % Ag GDP % Cereal Production World -1.5 -1.4 Developed -0.5 2.8 North America 7.5 1.3 Europe -14.7 -3.4 Developing -1.9 -3.9 Africa -4.9 -0.6 Latin America 3.7 15.9 Asia -4.3 -8.6 World Market prices( % change from Ref Scenario) Cereals : 19.5% All crops : 10.5%

Agriculture Spending to Total Spending by Developing Country Governments Year Africa Asia Latin America 1980 6.4 15.0 8.0 2002 4.5 5.6 2.5

Country Background Source : FAO database.

Trend in Food Inflation Year on Year (%) Change Food inflation started rising from 2004. Reached double digit during 2008. It is continuing to remain high even during 2009.

Projected impacts of climate change Increasing temperature would increase fertilizer requirement for the same production targets; and result in higher emissions Increasing sea and river water temperatures are likely to affect fish breeding, migration, and harvests. Coral reefs start declining from 2030. Increased water, shelter, and energy requirement for livestock

These emissions are largely from the industrialized countries as is evident from the per capita emission of greenhouse gases of different regions

How can we Reduce Emission of Greenhouse Gases from Agriculture? Improve management of water and fertilizers in rice paddies; use nitrification inhibitors, fertilizer placement/schedules Improve management of livestock population and its diet Increase soil carbon: minimal tillage, residue management Improve energy use efficiency in agriculture: better designs of machinery, and by conservation practices Change land use: increasing area under biofuels, agro-forestry - but trade-off with food production.

How to adapt Agriculture to Climate Change? Investments in adaptation research capacity: varieties, land use systems, resource conservation technologies, pest surveillance Changes in policies e.g. incentives for conservation of carbon, water, and energy; and use efficiency, pricing of resources Investments in infrastructure for water management Greater insurance coverage for the farm Improved communication of climate changes and options to adapt to them Creating alternate livelihood options and reducing dependence on agriculture

Enhance Research Capacity and International Collaboration Development of climate responsive crops and land use systems Seasonal weather forecasts Regionally differentiated contingency plans for increased risk management Reexamine water and fertilizer management with added dimension of reducing GHG emissions. Determine optimal size of livestock population considering milk requirement, diet, greenhouse gas emissions, and social issues. Development of decision support systems for policy guidance

Strengthen Institutions Establish an Agricultural Intelligence System for impact of weather and inputs on production of important commodities at national as well as international level. Increase pest surveillance Explore feasibility of establishing feed, fodder, and seed banks Increase farm insurance coverage using weather derivatives Enhance climate literacy

Major Challenges in Agriculture Raise and sustain agriculture growth Enhance income and employment Ensure food and nutrition security Adapt to climate change Adjust to changes in energy scenario Maintain bio safety and bio security Make sustainable use of natural resources Protect bio-diversity Adjust to global shocks

New Opportunities Biotechnology and Nanotechnology opens new vistas Renewed emphasis on agriculture likely to turn the environment favourable Trend towards Bios: Bio pesticide, bio sensors, bio remediation, bio molecules, bio medicine, bio cosmetics New Commerce and trade: Food chain, processing, value addition Regional cooperation in pest management, technology generation, adoption, human resource development

Green Revolution to Gene Revolution 18

Rate of Gain in Ag. Productivity is Declining Why Transgenics ? Rate of Gain in Ag. Productivity is Declining Developing countries World Developed countries 1 2 3 Percentage increase per year 1967–1982 1982–1994 1995–2020 This is important because agricultural yield increases are less than half what they were 30 years ago. 19

Why Transgenics? More food Better quality food Safer food Healthier foods Designer foods 20

Why Transgenics ? The projected world population growth 70-75 millions per year for next 50 years

Microbes are the Factory of Metabolic Products Amino acids Nucleotides Vitamins Solvents Organic acids Hypocholesterolemic agents Enzyme inhibitors Immunosuppressants Biopesticides. Microherbicides Plant growth promoters and disease suppressor Biocontrol agents Biofertilizers Millions tons are produced each year with a total multibillion dollar market Markets of over 50 billion dollars per year. Markets of over 700 billion dollars per year.

CA Systems: Rely on Multi-Disciplinary Efforts Good CA-based Implements (Ag Engineering) Efficient Genotypes (Breeding/Physiology/Protection) Good Crop Management (Agronomy/Soils) Profitable CA based technologies that Farmers can Adopt and Use

Generic areas for priority attention Hybrid culture in Agriculture Transgenic culture in Agriculture Water productivity enhancement and multiple use of water Input use efficiency enhancement Increasing precision in agriculture Enhanced protected cultivation Biosensors, Biofuels, Biomolecules, Biofortification, Biosafety, Biosecurity, Bioremediation, Biofertilization IT-based decision support systems for technology transfer Processing, storage and loss reduction Capacity building

Generic areas for priority attention contd.. Making land and water resources development and utilization economically viable Enforcing environmental laws to control water pollution, land degradation and erosion Providing adequate public funds for conducting frontier research Mass movement and large-scale people’s participation in development, supply and utilization of water and land resources at all levels

Generic areas for priority attention contd.. Enhance investment in irrigation infrastructure, and efficient water use technologies. Develop policy framework for greater adoption of scientific pricing policies for water, land, energy, and other resources. Consider financial incentives for improved land management, e.g. resource conservation/ enhancement (water, carbon). Consider incentives to industry and farmers for reducing emissions such as for neem coated urea Explore international partnerships for joint research and technology development

Thanks