Effects of Climatic Variability and Change on Forest Resources: A Scale- based Framework for Analysis David L. Peterson USDA Forest Service, PNW Station.

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Presentation transcript:

Effects of Climatic Variability and Change on Forest Resources: A Scale- based Framework for Analysis David L. Peterson USDA Forest Service, PNW Station UW College of Forest Resources UW Climate Impacts Group

Temperature varies over time

Forest vegetation varies over time

PDO affects tree growth Subalpine fir in the Cascade and Olympic Mountains From Peterson et al. (2002)

Low elevation forest Summer precipitation Summer temperature PDSI PDO Summer soil moisture

PDO affects growth of semi-arid tree species Ponderosa pine in the Cascade Range Data from G. Ettl

Subalpine conifer regeneration warm, cool, dry wet

Limiting factors in forest ecosystems High-elevation forests Duration of growing season at treeline Summer soil moisture at lower and drier locations Low-elevation forests Summer soil moisture Semi-arid forests Summer soil moisture

How does climatic variability affect wildfire?

Years with fire area > 80,000 hectares National Forest data, Warm-phase PDO Cool-phase PDO Idaho 14 7 Oregon 14 5 Washington 10 2 TOTAL 38 (73%) 14 (27%)

Climatology affects wildfire in the Pacific Northwest Extreme wildfire years are forced at least in part by antecedent drought and summer blocking in the 500 hPa height field. From Gedalof et al. (2004)

Climatic change effects From McKenzie et al. (2004) Temperature ( o C) Precipitation (%) Fire area Oregon

Stress Interactions, Disturbance Increased fire risk Higher fire frequency Higher fire intensity, esp. eastside where fuel hazard is high Increased insect outbreaks, esp. eastside Postfire stress Low vigor stands with high stem density

Forest Carbon Budgets Storage (quantity) vs. uptake (rate) Young forest Storage Uptake Mg/ha Mg/ha/yr Old forest ? (600?)

Local (small watershed) Subregional (large watershed, national forest) Regional PaleoecologyLowModerateLow Growth and productivity HighModerateModerate, depends on ecosystem CarbonModerateLow RegenerationModerateLow GeneticsLow Disturbance ecology HighModerateModerate, mostly for fire Scale-based framework: knowledge base

Management authority Federal Forest Service Bureau of Land Management State WA Department of Natural Resources OR Department of Forestry Private Industrial forest Nonindustrial forest

Response capacity Federal Carbon management (storage, LCA) Altered planting strategies Fire mitigation State Carbon management (storage) Private Industrial forest -- Genotype management -- Carbon management (storage, LCA) Nonindustrial forest -- None; default carbon storage?

THANK YOU! David L. Peterson