The Solar and Space Weather Reseach Group in Lund Space weather Solar activity - the driver Modelling and forecasting space weather and effects using KBN.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Space weather forecasting Henrik Lundstedt Swedish Institute of Space Physics, Lund, Sweden

Advertisements

Outline How do we define space weather? How do we observe it? What drives it (solar activity and solar phenomena)? Which are the impacts on: the atmosphere.

Cosmic Ray Using for Monitoring and Forecasting Dangerous Solar Flare Events Lev I. Dorman (1, 2) 1. Israel Cosmic Ray & Space Weather Center and Emilio.

Flare Luminosity and the Relation to the Solar Wind and the Current Solar Minimum Conditions Roderick Gray Research Advisor: Dr. Kelly Korreck.

The Sun – Describe characteristics of the Sun (S6C3PO2 high school)

Chapter 8 The Sun – Our Star.

Interaction of coronal mass ejections with large-scale structures N. Gopalswamy, S. Yashiro, H. Xie, S. Akiyama, and P. Mäkelä IHY – ISWI Regional meeting.

The Effects of Geomagnetic Storms on Power Systems Mary Holleboom Justin Voogt ENGR W82 January 22, 2002.

High-latitude activity and its relationship to the mid-latitude solar activity. Elena E. Benevolenskaya & J. Todd Hoeksema Stanford University Abstract.

HMI/AIA Science Team Meeting, HMI Science Goals Alexander Kosovichev & HMI Team.

Space Weather Forecast Models from the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling The Solar Wind Forecast Model Carrington Rotation 1896Carrington Rotation.

This Set of Slides This set of slides covers our Sun, nuclear processes, solar flares, auroras, and more… Units covered 49, 50, 51.

7 THE SUN The star we see by day. 7 Goals Summarize the overall properties of the Sun. What are the different parts of the Sun? Where does the light we.

Show 1 -- photosphere & sunspots SUN COURSE - SLIDE SHOW 3 Show 2 -- corona & solar cycle Today: SOHO.

Solar Activities and Halloween Storms Ahmed Hady Astronomy Department Cairo University, Egypt.

From Geo- to Heliophysical Year: Results of CORONAS-F Space Mission International Conference «50 Years of International Geophysical Year and Electronic.

1.B – Solar Dynamo 1.C – Global Circulation 1.D – Irradiance Sources 1.H – Far-side Imaging 1.F – Solar Subsurface Weather 1.E – Coronal Magnetic Field.

DOPPLER DOPPLER A Space Weather Doppler Imager Mission Concept Exploration Science Objectives What are the most relevant observational signatures of flare,

Space weather Henrik Lundstedt Swedish Institute of Space Physics, Lund, Sweden

HMI Science Objectives Convection-zone dynamics and the solar dynamo  Structure and dynamics of the tachocline  Variations in differential rotation 

Sung-Hong Park Space Weather Research Laboratory New Jersey Institute of Technology Study of Magnetic Helicity and Its Relationship with Solar Activities:

Solar Rotation Lab 3. Differential Rotation The sun lacks a fixed rotation rate Since it is composed of a gaseous plasma, the rate of rotation is fastest.

Youtube: Secrets of a Dynamic Sun The Sun – Our Star

The Sun and the Heliosphere: some basic concepts…

The Sun Chapter 29 Section 29.2 and Spaceweather.

COST Action 724 Space Weather Brussels November 24, 2003.

Living with our star Henrik Lundstedt Swedish Institute of Space Physics The Sun drives a space weather, that influences the atmosphere,

The Sun. Solar Prominence Sun Fact Sheet The Sun is a normal G2 star, one of more than 100 billion stars in our galaxy. Diameter: 1,390,000 km (Earth.

Katya Georgieva Boian Kirov Simeon Asenovski

Solar Weather and Tropical Cyclone Activity Abstract Worldwide tropical cyclone energy and frequency data was obtained from the Unisys Weather database.

Space Weather: What is it? How Will it Affect You? An introduction to Space Weather What is it? Where does it come from? What does it do? Rodney Viereck.

The Sun By: Kristel Curameng and Courtney Lee. The Sun The Sun is the most prominent feature in our solar system. The largest object and contains approximately.

Modern Solar Mysteries Dr. David H. Hathaway NASA/MSFC National Space Science and Technology Center Dr. David H. Hathaway NASA/MSFC National Space Science.

STEREO Planned Launch November, Stereo imaging of Sun; coronal mass ejections from birth to Earth impact. What determines geo-effectiveness of solar.

Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display 1 Announcements: Homework #6 due Tuesday Last problem requires.

Chapter 24 Studying the Sun. Electromagnetic radiation includes gamma rays, X- rays, ultraviolet light, visible light, infrared radiation, microwaves,

Advanced Solar Theory (MT5810) OUTLINE 1.Observational properties of the Sun 2.MHD equations (revision) 3.Induction equation - solutions when R m >1 4.Magnetic.

Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications: Introduction to NASA’s Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications:

Sunspots. X-ray solar image Solar Flair Solar Corona.

SOLAR FLARES AND ERUPTIONS Lyndsay Fletcher University of Glasgow.

THE SUN. The Sun The sun has a diameter of 900,000 miles (>100 Earths could fit across it) >1 million Earths could fit inside it. The sun is composed.

THE EARTH’S MAGNETIC FIELD Note; The geographical north pole acts like the south pole of a magnet.

SOLAR VARIABILITY AND CLIMATE. HAS THE EARTH WARMED? Climatic Research Unit, UK.

The Sun – Our Star Our sun is considered an “average” star and is one of the 100 BILLION stars that make up the Milky Way galaxy. But by no MEANS does.

Michael L. Kaiser STEREO Project Scientist NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center STEREO May 2, 2008 STEREO at 1.25 years.

Solar weather consists of the Sun’s effects upon its planetary system and the solar activities it causes. Solar activities, such as flares and CMEs, form.

Solar Astronomy Space Science Lab 2008 Pisgah Astronomical Research Institute.

Global Structure of the Inner Solar Wind and it's Dynamic in the Solar Activity Cycle from IPS Observations with Multi-Beam Radio Telescope BSA LPI Chashei.

Units to cover: 52, 53, Observatories in Space.

Our Star The Sun C. Alex Young NASA Goddard Space Flight Center July 21, 2006 NASA GSFC Visitor’s Center.

Modeling 3-D Solar Wind Structure Lecture 13. Why is a Heliospheric Model Needed? Space weather forecasts require us to know the solar wind that is interacting.

What is a geomagnetic storm? A very efficient exchange of energy from the solar wind into the space environment surrounding Earth; These storms result.

Reading Unit 31, 32, 51. The Sun The Sun is a huge ball of gas at the center of the solar system –1 million Earths would fit inside it! –Releases the.

Solar & Space Physics Decadal Survey Leading Principle: To make transformational scientific progress, the Sun, Earth, and heliosphere must be studied as.

The Sun Part 2.

Analysis of 3 and 8 April 2010 Coronal Mass Ejections and their Influence on the Earth Magnetic Field Marilena Mierla and SECCHI teams at ROB, USO and.

The CME geomagnetic forecast tool (CGFT) M. Dumbović 1, A. Devos 2, L. Rodriguez 2, B. Vršnak 1, E. Kraaikamp 2, B. Bourgoignie 2, J. Čalogović 1 1 Hvar.

Outer Layers of the Sun Photosphere –Limb darkening –Sun spots Chromosphere Corona Prominences, flares, coronal mass ejections Reading

Sunspots, Solar Cycle, and Observing the Sun. What We Don’t Know  What are the precise causes of flares and CMEs?  Why do sunspots cycle in an 11 year.

Solar variability and its impact on climate Laura Balmaceda 4 th El Leoncito Solar Physics School November, 2008.

Helioseismology for HMI Science objectives and tasks* Data analysis plan* Helioseismology working groups and meetings *HMI Concept Study Report, Appendix.

한 미 려 – Introduction (1) 2.Instrument & Observe 3.Science 2.

Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO)

Magnetic Field.

COST Action 724 Space Weather Brussels November 24, 2003

Space Weather: Science, Effects, Forecasts and Services.

Space Weather: Modeling with Intelligent Systems

Classroom Rocket Scientist

Grades 9-12: Introduction

Added-Value Users of ACE Real Time Solar Wind (RTSW) Data

Presentation transcript:

The Solar and Space Weather Reseach Group in Lund Space weather Solar activity - the driver Modelling and forecasting space weather and effects using KBN ESA/Lund Space Weather Forecast Service Regional Warning Center Sweden in Lund

Space weather The solar activity causes conditions that can influence the Earth’s atmosphere, technological systems, and endanger human health and life. We call that space weather

SOHO Solar Heliospheric Observatory was launched on December 2, 1995 SOHO carries three instruments observing the solar interior, six the solar corona and three the solar wind

Stanford collaboration

MDI/SOHO reveals the interior MDI shows how magnetic elements form sunspots MDI shows how the dynamo changes Sunspots are footpoints of emerging magnetic flux tubes

Sunspots observed on solar surface Schwabe found the 11- year sunspot solar cycle. R = k(10g + f) The two peaks of solar activity, 1.3 years separated!

Gleissberg solar cycle in sunspot group number Gleissberg found an amplitude modulation of the 11-year cycle of years, as seen by the sunspot group number

High solar activity and warm climate, low and cold climate The solar activity during years derived from C14 measurments in old trees. Cold climate in England, Holland during Little Ice Age. Vikings settled down in Greenland during warm Middle Age.

Possible physical explanation of solar climate relation The solar coronal magnetic flux has increased with 131% since High solar activity Cosmic ray decreases Cloud coverage decreases Higher temperature Clouds effect climate 100 times more effectively than CO 2.

Solar activity and North Atlantic Oscillation Index

CMEs cause the most severe space weather effects Halo CMEs are most geoeffective Mass: 5-50 billion tons Frequency: 3.5/day (max), 0.2/day (min) Speed: km/s

Early CME signal in wavelet power spectra of MDI data

Wavelet power spectra of MDI magnetic mean field Upper panel shows for 53 CME events. Lower panel shows for times without CMEs.

Probing CMEs with a solar radar antennas with sensors and emitters, organized in 100 clusters distributed within a circular region of about 350 km diameter. Frequency MHz (30-1.5m). The total data rate will be 2.5 Tbits/s.

Modelling and forecasting with KBN The basis of using neural networks as mathematical models is ”mapping”. Given a dynamic system, a neural network can model it on the basis of a set of examples encoding the input/output behavior of the system. It can learn the mathematical function underlying the system operation (generalize), if the network is properly designed (architecture, weights) and trained (learning algorithm). Both architecture and weights can be determined from differential equations which describe the causal relations between the physical variables (the solution of the diff equation is approximated with a RBF). The network (KBN) is then trained with observations. The architecture (number of input and hidden nodes) can also be determined from dynamic system analysis (reconstruction of attractor from time series gives dimension). Neural network can discover laws from regularities in data (e.g. Newton’s law). If one construct a hierachy of neural networks where networks at each level can learn knowledge at some level of abstraction, even more advanced laws can be dicovered.

Workshops arranged by us Workshops on ”Artificial Intelligence Applications in Solar-Terrestrial Physics” were held in Lund 1993 and 1997.

Real-time forecasts and warnings based on KBN Solar wind observations with ACE make accurate forecasts 1-3 hours ahead possible. Solar observations with SOHO make warnings 1-3 days ahead possible. Solar input data

ESA Space Weather Programme Study

ESA/Lund Space Weather Forecast Service

Near and farside solar activity from MDI/SOHO observations

Latest information on arrival of halo CME at L1

Latest info on forecasts of satellite anomalies

Latest information on forecasts of Kp, Dst, AE and GIC

Test Dst forecasts

Neural network forecasts of Dst vs other methods

Regional Warning Centers RWC-Sweden in Lund

Forecasts of aurora as SMS or voice messages

Where to learn more about us