Climate History Leading up to 2002 Drought Colorado Climate Center Roger Pielke, Sr, Director and Nolan Doesken, Research Associate Prepared by Odie Bliss & Tara Green Prepared by Odie Bliss & Tara Green

Climate Prediction Is there skill? Is there skill? What spatial scales are required? What spatial scales are required? What is climate? What is climate?

COLORADO NEEDS What would be the impact today of historical droughts? What would be the impact today of historical droughts? What would be the impact today of paleo- droughts? What would be the impact today of paleo- droughts? What if the dry, warm weather reoccurred for ? What if the dry, warm weather reoccurred for ? How can we make Colorado more resilient to droughts? How can we make Colorado more resilient to droughts? What are the definitions of the multi- dimensional character of droughts. What are the definitions of the multi- dimensional character of droughts.

EXAMPLES OF DROUGHTS Snow does not fall in the mountains until late January Snow does not fall in the mountains until late January It is dry in April-July, but soaking rains occur in eastern Colorado in August It is dry in April-July, but soaking rains occur in eastern Colorado in August The weather of repeats for the next five years The weather of repeats for the next five years Colorado’s mountains have 90% of average snow for the next 20 years. Colorado’s mountains have 90% of average snow for the next 20 years.

Vulnerability Assessment A vulnerability assessment of risk to climate and other environmental stress is, therefore, more appropriate as guides to Policy Makers, than trying to predict only a subset of possible future climate conditions.

Websites Pielke Research Group Web site Pielke Research Group Web site – Colorado Climate Center Web site Colorado Climate Center Web site –

Image from Allen and Breshears, 1998, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 95, pp

From Edwards & McKee, 1997: Climo. Report 97-2

Figure courtesy of J.R. Hannamean

Figure courtesy of Jeff Lukas

Source:

Total Precipitation Analysis September 2001 – August 2002 Ranking by Station Climatic Stations Year of Record Rank Amount of Precipitation Grand Lake 1 NW Taylor Park Grand Junction WSO A Meeker Montrose No Mesa Verde NP Del Norte 2 E Center 4 SSW Colorado Springs WSO Pueblo WSO Rocky Ford 2 SE Cheyenne Wells Akron 4 E Leroy 7 WSW Kassler

Figure 2. Geographic anomalies in temperature trends in eastern Colorado. from Pielke et al., 2002, "Problems in evaluating regional and local trends in temperature: An example from Eastern Colorado USA", Int. J. Climatol., 22, Figure 2. Geographic anomalies in temperature trends in eastern Colorado. from Pielke et al., 2002, "Problems in evaluating regional and local trends in temperature: An example from Eastern Colorado USA", Int. J. Climatol., 22,

Water Year 2002 (Oct Sept. 2002) Precipitation % of Average

Klaus Wolter’s Climate Divisions

Temperature Anomaly June 2002

Temperature Anomaly July 2002

Temperature Anomaly August 2002

Fort Collins All STI Months by Year

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