Dr. László JAGER University of West-Hungary Sopron, Hungary Some links between environment, innovation and forestry

1. Referendum for a nuclear plant NO YES

price euro equal to establishment of ha new forest 2. Referendum for the longest bridge of Central-Europe NO YES

Starting point: a simple system start end growing speed : double in every minute How do they feel 5 minutes before the collapse?

A complex system number of possible positions: 9.49*10 53 mass of the Earth: 5,97 *1024 kg

An even more complex system Forecast: 1 day5 days 2 week 90% 60% 20% 10 years ?

The risk function timef1f2f3f4output =100/(f4*100)+f3+f2+f1

Environmental factors: Sustainable development Waste Noise Air pollution Water Nature and biodiversity Soil protection Climate change changes unpredictable random fast risk adaptation innovation

Some facts of environmental features

Some facts of environmental features

Some environmental facts

The balance of the world? Tree and human strategies in a changing world

Adaptation to changing environmental factors tree level population level ecosystem level

Adaptation to changing environmental factors population level

Adaptation on the level of the ecosystem different species strategies oakbirch adaptation for sudden changes?

Adaptation on the level of the ecosystem human strategies.....

The situation is risky but I can handle it

Up to now the situation is not too bad...

Positive outcomes of global warming? The previous chapters have shown that global warming would, in all probability, produce gains for most Americans. Somewhat higher temperatures would improve health, cut death rates, facilitate transportation, reduce heating bills, and help satisfy people’s taste for warm weather. The major costs would come from higher sea levels and an increase in smog, which rises when temperatures climb. In most cases, those undesirable side effects could be mitigated at reasonable cost. From an American point of view, spending anything to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases is unwarranted.

Anticipation of the behaviour of - mankind – global level - countries - single human beings

The global scale

Kyoto protocol

Data Sources: United States Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook, 1998 and How much will the Kyoto Protocol reduce emissions?

EU ETS - The European Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) is a mandatory compliance programme for large emitters in the 25 European Union Member States, making it the largest corporate emissions trading scheme in the world.EU ETS CDMCDM - The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) creates credits Certified Emission Reductions (CERs) from emission abatement projects in developing countries. CERs can be used for compliance in the EU ETS and other national schemes, such as Canada and Japan. JIJI - Joint Implementation (JI) creates credits - Emission Reduction Units (ERUs) - from projects in developed countries that are signatories to the Kyoto Protocol. In practise most JI activity happens in the former CIS (USSR). National SchemesNational Schemes - There are local domestic schemes for trading carbon in many countries, including the USA, UK, Canada, New Zealand and Japan. Carbon trade mechanism

Carbon trade mechanism in practice wonderful theory + market failure

Carbon trade mechanism – the business model

price of the co 2 in everyday life

Your household CO 2 (kg) Your personal share of CO 2 (kg) UK average household CO 2 (kg) UK average CO 2 per person (kg) Gas, coal and oil4, ,8761,615 Electricity1, ,1271,303 Private Car4,9912,6001,083 Public Transport Holiday Flights6001, Total Primary Footprint6,80312,0345,013 Food and Drink 585 *1, Clothes and Shoes 486 *1, Car Manufacture 715 *1, Buildings, Furniture and Appliances 982 *2, Recreation and Services 1,546 *3,7111,546 Finance and other services 361 * Share of Public Services 1,276 * 3,0621,276 Total Secondary Footprint 5,950 *14,2825,950 TOTAL FOOTPRINT 12,75326,31610,963

Global warming and forests

Forest activities

Products

What are you expectations for the future? greatest risk factors: external factors nuclear war bird flu global warming earthquakes internal factors