US Policy Options Towards Iran’s Nuclear Development National Security Council Report December 8, 2005.

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Presentation transcript:

US Policy Options Towards Iran’s Nuclear Development National Security Council Report December 8, 2005

Overview History of Iran-US relations Overview of current Iranian nuclear development 4 scenarios The status quo option Recommendations

US-Iran Relations Historical relations Before 1953 coup d’etat 1953 coup d’etat After 1979 hostage crisis After Sept. 11 Iran’s America problem America’s Iran problem Current developments

Iran’s Nuclear Development History of Iranian nuclear program Uranium enrichment Plutonium development Assistance from other nations & organizations Civilian or military? EU-3 negotiations Current American policy

Nuclear Scenarios 1. Status quo Iran continues current policy, negotiations stall 2. Iran carries out a nuclear test 3. Intelligence indicates Iran transfers a nuclear device to a non state actor 4. Iran demonstrates that its nuclear program is civilian in purpose only

The Status Quo Option Continuation of current process Iran continues semi-cooperation with IAEA EU negotiations continue to ebb and flow United States continues to view Iran with skepticism

Status Quo (continued) Israel and Iran continue arms race China, Russia, G77 continue to block Iran being referred to UN Security Council “Dilemma of two clocks” Russia and China continue balance-of-power negotiations and deals with Iran Iran continues to meddle in Iraqi Shiite politics Neighbors continue to oppose Iranian nuclear development

Recommendations Continued negotiations through the EU Constructive engagement with Iran “Grand bargain?” through 6 party talks Regional security WTO & trade Iraq and Afghanistan agreement Regional security guarantee