2011 Swedish Schumpeter Lecture William B. Gartner

Has it failed?

Are solutions to yesterday’s problems. - William B. Gartner

Will what we learned about “yesterday” work today?

Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it

History repeats itself, and that's one of the things that's wrong with history.

History repeats itself. Historians repeat each other.

History repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as farce.

Inflation - 9% Unemployment – 9%

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This is like deja vu all over again.

This process of Creative Destruction is the essential fact about capitalism.

Is the business environment.

Financial period Net sales (Mil USD) Net profits (Mil USD) Revenue growth Return on net sales FY unknown--- FY %10% FY %8% FY 19841, %4% FY 19851, %3% FY 19861, %8% FY 19872, %8% FY 19884, %10% FY 19895, %9% FY 19905, %9% FY 19916, %5% FY 19927, %7% FY 19937, %1% FY 19949, %3% FY , %4% FY 19969, %-8% FY 19977,081-1,045-28%-15% FY 19985, %5% FY 19996, %10% FY 20007, %10% FY 20015, %0% FY 20025, %1% FY 20036, %1% FY 20048, %3% FY ,9311,32868%10% FY ,3151,98939%10% FY ,5783,49527%14% FY ,4916,11953%16% FY 2009 [60] [60] 42,9058,23514%19% FY ,22514,01352%21%

1976: Apple 1

1977: Apple II

1980: Apple III

1984: MacIntosh (9/84 - $25.12)

1985: MacIntosh XL (9/85 - $ 15.75) * 1986: MacIntosh Plus (9/86 - $ 33.50) 1987: MacIntosh II (9/87 - $ 56.50)

1988: (9/88 - $ 43.25) 1989: MacIntosh Portable (9/89 - $ 44.50) 1990: MacIntosh Classic (9/90 - $29.00)*

1991: Quadra + Powerbook (9/91 - $ 49.50) 1992: (9/92 - $ 45.13) 1993: Newton (9/93 - $ 23.27)

1994: (9/94 - $33.69) 1995: (9/95 - $37.25) 1996: (9/96 - $22.19)* 1997: G3 (9/97 – $21.69) **

1998: (9/98 – $38.13) 1999: IBook (9/99 - $63.31) 2000: (9/00 - $25.75)

2001: IPod (9/01 - $15.51) 2002: (9/02 - $14.50) 2003: ITunes (9/03 – $20.72)

2004: (9/04 - $38.75) 2005: (9/05 - $53.61) 2006: MacBook (9/06 - $76.98)

2007: IPhone, Nano, Touch (9/07 - $153.47) 2008: IPhone 3G (9/08 - $113.66) 2009: IPhone 3GS (9/09 - $185.35)

2010: IPad (9/10 - $283.75) 2011: IPad 2 (9/11 - $381.32)

Persistence pays off?

Success comes out of failure?

All good things must come to an end.

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Play by Rules Competition is Visible Understandable Score Keeping Failure is not Devastating (You Play Again)

Transparency of Process (Know That You Are Failing!)

Affordable Loss

Measurable Milestones (Outcomes)

Uncertainty and Ambiguity Requires Experimentation

In Order to Fail You Have to Try.

Evolution begins with variation.

Act always so as to increase the number of choices. Handle stets so, daß die Anzahl der Wahlmöglichkeiten größer wird.

Evolution is not “progressive.” There is no inevitability that we will be better off.