Comparing Dynamic Decision- Making Practices with the Aid of an Interactive Microworld Simulator of an International Conflict Presented by Ranan Kuperman University of Haifa's Forum on Research Methods Workshop in Experimental Research May 28, 2006

The Advantages of Experiments 1)Control over variation 2)Safety 3)Repetition of observations 4)No Missing Data

The Disadvantages of Simulated Experiments 1)Ethical limitations (harming subjects or the environment) 2)Simulations (playing games) do not reflect the reality

Microworld Simulators 1)Environment operates according to rules dictated by a computer program 2)Environment is influenced and responds to policies dictated by decision maker 3) Decision maker can repeatedly make decisions and therefore can respond and adapt to environment

The Fishing Dispute Microworld 1) Objectives: a) Maximize fishing yields b) Minimize security expenses c) Minimize human casualties 2) Options: a) Do nothing b) Agree to share disputed waters c) Threaten d) Mobilize forces e) Apply military force 3) Constraints: a) Simulator operates in real-time (represses rational choice) b) Knowledge can be obtained only by experience (encourages learning)

Normative Assumption of International Relations: Norms are applied regardless even if national interests are compromised Realist Assumption of International Relations: Norms are compromised whenever abiding by the norm compromises national interests

Initial Observations 1)Poor learning patterns – evolutionary rationality failed 2)Very similar failure patterns among subjects

Percentage of subjects per day engaged in agreements to share disputed waters

Average number of patrol boats per day sent to disputed region

Comparison between Israel and US tendencies to maintain agreements

Comparison between Israeli and US tendencies to dispatch patrol boats