Microsimulation in the UK: the current state of play Dr Paul Williamson Dept. of Geography University of Liverpool.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

School of Geography FACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT Spatial Microsimulation for City Modelling, Social Forecasting and Urban Policy Analysis Mark Birkin

Advertisements

Households Below Average Income 23 rd April 2007 Presentation at FRS User Group Meeting By Nick Herbert - DWP.

ESRC Seminar, London, 02/04/09 Dynamic microsimulation with spatial interactions B.M.Wu, M.H.Birkin and P.H.Rees School of Geography University of Leeds.

Household Projections for England Yolanda Ruiz DCLG 16 th July 2012.

Introduction to STINMOD and Microsimulation Modelling in Australia Ben Phillips: Principal Research Fellow, NATSEM, 21 Feb 2015.

How many questions can you get that give you the answer Migration.

1.2.4 Statistical Methods in Poverty Estimation 1 MEASUREMENT AND POVERTY MAPPING UPA Package 1, Module 2.

DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AT THE LOCAL LEVEL IN BRAZIL Ernesto F. L. Amaral Advisor: Dr. Joseph E. Potter Population Research Center.

A model-based approach for estimating international emigration for local authorities Brian Foley, Office for National Statistics BSPS day meeting London.

Modelling Crime: A Spatial Microsimulation Approach Charatdao Kongmuang School of Geography University of Leeds Supervisors Dr. Graham Clarke, Dr. Andrew.

Understanding Population Trends and Processes: Links between internal migration, commuting and within household relationships Oliver Duke-Williams School.

The Rural Housing Data Portal Information for Rural America Housing Assistance Council.

Availability of population estimates and projections Project EASY nowfuture -2-3 ONS Borough Ward LSOA EASY ONS EASY GLA Social Infrastructure Planning.

Sample of Anonymised Records: User Meeting Propensity to migrate by ethnic group: 1991 & 2001 Paul Norman 1, John Stillwell 2 & Serena Hussain 2 School.

Adding Census Geographical Detail into the British Crime Survey for Modelling Crime Charatdao Kongmuang Naresuan University, Thailand Graham Clarke and.

Quantitative Evidence for Marketing Data Library, Rutherford North 1 st Floor Chuck Humphrey Data Library October 26, 2009.

Geography and Geographical Analysis using the ONS Longitudinal Study Christopher Marshall & Julian Buxton CeLSIUS.

1 Moving from a dynamic cohort microsimulation model to a dynamic population microsimulation model Moving from a dynamic cohort microsimulation model to.

The Social Profile of Rural Britain: Insights from longitudinal datasets Heather Joshi Gareth Hughes & Brian Dodgeon Centre for Longitudinal Studies Institute.

Creating synthetic sub-regional baseline populations Dr Paul Williamson Dept. of Geography University of Liverpool Collaborators: Robert Tanton (NATSEM,

CCG 1 MoSeS Introduction and Progress Report Andy Turner

The ONS Longitudinal Study. © London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine The Office for National Statistics Longitudinal Study (LS) o What is it o.

Census 2001 Your window to Census information. What is a Census? The Census of population and housing is undertaken every 5 years by the ABS. It aims.

Synthetic data, microsimulation and socio-demographic forecasting Mark Birkin School of Geography Professor of Spatial Analysis and Policy.

Census Bureau – Fernando Casimiro, Coordinator Lisboa IPUMS - Portugal Country Report.

National Population Projections and the challenges of an ageing population Helen Bray and Shayla Goldring ONS.

© Institute for Fiscal Studies Child poverty, tax and benefit policy and the labour market since Robert Joyce.

Population and places through time: Grid-square data and the NILS Ian Shuttleworth QUB and NILS-RSU.

BC Jung A Brief Introduction to Epidemiology - IV ( Overview of Vital Statistics & Demographic Methods) Betty C. Jung, RN, MPH, CHES.

The new HBS Chisinau, 26 October Outline 1.How the HBS changed 2.Assessment of data quality 3.Data comparability 4.Conclusions.

SPATIAL MICROSIMULATION: A METHOD FOR SMALL AREA LEVEL ESTIMATION Dr Karyn Morrissey Department of Geography and Planning University of Liverpool Research.

The micro-geography of UK demographic change Paul Norman School of Geography, University of Leeds understanding population trends and processes.

Computing SubLHIN Population Projections in the South East Region August 2014 Update.

Microsimulation in a Cold Climate David Bell University of Stirling.

Estimating energy consumption in Australia using a spatial microsimulation model Presentation to ANZRSAI Conference, 2014 Robert Tanton 15 November2014.

PROJECTIONS OF INCOMES, PENSIONS AND LONG-TERM CARE WORKPACKAGE 5.

Introduction to the Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) File from the American Community Survey Updated February 2013.

Welfare Reform and Lone Parents Employment in the UK Paul Gregg and Susan Harkness.

Microsimulation in the UK: the current state of play Dr Paul Williamson Dept. of Geography University of Liverpool.

School of something FACULTY OF OTHER School of Geography FACULTY OF EARTH AND ENVIRONMENT MOSES: A Synthetic Spatial Model of UK Cities and Regions Mark.

Éric Caron Malenfant, André Lebel, Laurent Martel Lisbon, April 2010

School of Geography FACULTY OF EARTH & ENVIRONMENT Relationships between migration, commuting and household structure Oliver Duke-Williams

EDAT 17 December 2014 Local demographic trends – An older and ageing population Andy Cornelius Corporate Research & Consultation Team.

Robin Edwards Hampshire County Council and Chairman of the Demography Sub Group, South East England Regional Assembly Household projections in the South.

The grand apartheid spatial legacy Population Structure of South Africa national and provincial pyramids what do they tell us Migration patterns and implications.

The project for developing the methodology of register- based censuses in Estonia Kristi Lehto Statistics Estonia Methodology and analysis department Senior.

Woodville, Mississippi Community Data Profile W. Base Data Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2000 Population, Housing and Income Trends ESRI.

Displacement and Densification: Tracing Spatial Impacts of Migration Inflows to London Ian Gordon Geography Department, LSE London and Spatial Economics.

Housing Studies Association conference paper Assessing the growth of the private rented sector: choice versus constraints Paul Sissons and Donald Houston.

Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Practices by Proxy Climate, Consumption and Water (and troubles.

Poverty and Income Inequality in Edinburgh September 2015.

Paying for pensions and long-term care: combining separate projections of long-term care and pension costs and the distributional consequences of reform.

The micro-geography of UK demographic change Paul Norman Cathie Marsh Centre for Census & Survey Research (CCSR), University of Manchester ESRC.

1 1 Topics difficult to measure in a register-based census Harald Utne Census Project Statistics Norway UNECE-Eurostat Meeting on Population.

Using Census Data for Monitoring Millennium Development Goals Session 2 Subregional Workshop on Dissemination and Use of Population and Housing Census.

Population Projections Input Data & UN Model Tables

Interregional migration England and Wales Emily Grundy and Rachel Stuchbury CeLSIUS The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.

Spatial microsimulation approach: A journey of explanation and exploration! Dr Malcolm Campbell Director Geohealth Laboratory and Department of Geography,

Exploring Microsimulation Methodologies for the Estimation of Household Attributes Dimitris Ballas, Graham Clarke, and Ian Turton School of Geography University.

Mapping Social Indicators for South East Coastal Adaptation project Yogi Vidyattama, Binod Nepal and Itismita Mohanty The National Centre for Social and.

Roots. Demography Demography is the study of population characteristics Changing population trends in the UK is an important topic for Geographers to.

The micro-geography of UK demographic change Paul Norman School of Geography, University of Leeds understanding population trends and processes.

The micro-geography of UK demographic change Paul Norman School of Geography, University of Leeds understanding population trends and processes.

Roots. Demography Demography is the study of population characteristics Changing population trends in the UK is an important topic for geographers to.

Samples of Anonymised Records from the U.K. Census 1991 and 2001 Integrating Census Microdata Workshop Barcelona th July 2005 Dr. Ed Fieldhouse Cathie.

Demographics 1.Studying Population 2.Population Pyramids 3.Global Village.

Kobe Boussauw – 15/12/2011 – Spatial Planning in Flanders: political challenges and social opportunities – Leuven Spatial proximity and distance travelled:

Recommended Population and Housing Census Topics

Social Infrastructure Planning

Census topics selection

Presentation transcript:

Microsimulation in the UK: the current state of play Dr Paul Williamson Dept. of Geography University of Liverpool

ModelInstitutionStaticDynamicABMTax-benefitDemographicOtherPublic MultipleDWPXXXX MultipleTreasuryXXXX PPIXXX IFSXX OPERAStirlingXXX MOSESLeedsXX SCOTSIMLiverpoolXX SAGEMODSouthamptonXXX SimBritainSheffieldXXX EUROMODEssexXXX LawsonEssexX?XXX AndersonEssex S-ParamicsSIASXXX SimDELTADSCXXX SOCSIMLSEXXX CARESIMUEAXXX FEARLUSMLURIX ADaPTSouthamptonXX ?YorkX ?LeedsXXX Current MSM in the UK: an overview

% of non-fitting synthetic combinations PARTIALLY CONSTRAINED DISTRIBUTIONS DistributionRural (South West) ‘Middling England’ (East Mids.) Deprived industrial (North) Deprived urban (Outer London) SEG / Household composition 0000 SEG / Rooms Household composition / Dependants 0000 Dependants / Tenure0000 Sex / marital status / tenure Illness / sex Synthetically estimated spatial microdata

Telephony: 2005/6 Simulated household weekly telephone bill (landlines) (FES 2005/6) EEDA, LSOA level Ward level comparison with BT billing data (EEDA, Ward level) Spearman rho = , p < 0.001

Simulated ‘work time’ ONS Time-Use Survey (2001) and Census 2001 East of England, LSOA Validation: –(Spearman rho = , p < 0.001) –Strong correlation with Census 2001 ‘work time’

% More happy than usual

Happiness & Life Events EventCorrelation Top 5 negative associations Relationships (mine ending) Death (parent) Healthparent Death (other) Employment job loss Top Five positive associations Relationships (mine starting)0.160 Employment job gain0.097 Finance (house)0.097 Pregnancy (mine)0.084 Pregnancy (child's)0.053

OPERA (1) Costs (% disposable income) of various Local Tax structures

(2) Change in costs given changing Dementia prevalence

Workflow Research Object Portlet MOSES

Simulation Database Aggregate To Migrant Population Aggregate To Vacant Dwellings Migrant generation model Spatial Interaction Model Compute dwelling preference for each migrant Update Location and Dwelling Characteristics ‘Conventional’ migration distribution procedure

ABM in MOSES Observed MSM ABM

Modelling Individual Consumer Behaviour

ABM v. MSM?

t4t4 t1t1 t2t2 t3t3 The Global Epidemic Simulator

Modelling Needs and Resources of Older People to 2030 (MAP2030)

SOCSIM

Average number of living grand children and grand parents (complete)

CARESIM: adding new cohort of people now aged Need to simulate pensions & retirement

CONCLUSION In a number of fields UK MSM is world-leading Challenges All models Maintenance/updating/upgrading/validation Increased collaboration Increasing user base Academic models Greater public policy influence