Elevated CO 2 and the global C cycle I. Is atmospheric CO 2 increasing? - Historic, millenial, and ice age patterns II. Is it caused by humans? - 3 lines.

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Presentation transcript:

Elevated CO 2 and the global C cycle I. Is atmospheric CO 2 increasing? - Historic, millenial, and ice age patterns II. Is it caused by humans? - 3 lines of evidence III. Consequences A.Direct B.Indirect

Rising atmospheric CO 2 Schlesinger 1997

Questions 1. How does this fit into Earth’s long-term history? 2. How do we know if recent changes are caused by human activities? 3. What might be the consequences?

23.22

23.21

Here’s the more recent 650,000 year record from the EPICA ice core in Antarctica. The black line is the temperature proxy.

Questions 1. How does this fit into Earth’s long-term history? 2. How do we know if recent changes are caused by human activities? a. Timing b. C budgeting c. C signatures – 14 C 3. What might be the consequences?

Rising atmospheric CO 2 Schlesinger 1997

Global carbon budgeting

The Global Carbon Cycle s Units Gt C and Gt C y -1 The KP seeks to reduce net carbon emissions by about 0.3 Gt C below 1990 levels from industrial countries Atmosphere Fossil Deposits Plants Soil Oceans ,000 About 16, …are leading to a build up of CO 2 in the atmosphere. Fossil emissions... …and land clearing in the tropics...

Questions 1. How does this fit into Earth’s long-term history? 2. How do we know if recent changes are caused by human activities? 3. What might be the consequences?

Consequences of Elevated CO 2 1.Direct effects – more on these later a.On plant growth b.On decomposition 2. Indirect effects a.Warming b.Effects of warming i.Sea level rise ii.Changes in precipitation iii.Storm frequency and intensity? iv.Biological changes: species range shifts, diseases?

Enhanced greenhouse effect Starr&Taggart Fig

And other greenhouse gases…

Elevated CO 2 effects: increased temperature

Global Warming effects –sea level rise

Global Warming effects – extreme weather

Remaining questions: How much warming will occur? How distributed? Consequences? What can be done? (Adaptation, mitigation)

Greenhouse gas emission scenarios

Global Warming effects – long-term

The Global Carbon Cycle s Units Gt C and Gt C y -1 The KP seeks to reduce net carbon emissions by about 0.3 Gt C below 1990 levels from industrial countries Atmosphere Fossil Deposits Plants Soil Oceans ,000 About 16, …are leading to a build up of CO 2 in the atmosphere. Fossil emissions... …and land clearing in the tropics...

Questions What causes uptake by natural systems? How much capacity to continue absorbing CO 2 ? What might limit their uptake capacity? What can we do to enhance ecosystem uptake and thereby slow the atmospheric increase?

The End

Global Warming effects – change in precipitation