Scientific Creativity, Logic, and Chance: The Integration of Product, Person, and Process Research Traditions

Introduction n The Metasciences –History of Science –Philosophy of Science –Sociology of Science –Psychology of Science

The Two Psychologies of Science n Experimental –The Process of Scientific Discovery –Creativity as Logical Problem Solving n Correlational –The Person of the Creative Scientist –Creativity as Personal Attribute

Potential Integration? n Third Point of Attack n The Product n Behavioral rather than Experimental or Psychometric n in vivo rather than in vitro (Dunbar)

Creative Products n Scientific Careers: –Publications n Scientific Communities: –Multiples

Publications n Individual Variation n Longitudinal Change

Individual Variation n Skewed Cross-sectional Distribution

Individual Variation n Skewed Cross-sectional Distribution –Lotka’s Law

Individual Variation n Skewed Cross-sectional Distribution –Lotka’s Law –Price’s Law

Individual Variation n Skewed Cross-sectional Distribution –Lotka’s Law –Price’s Law n Quantity-Quality Relation

Individual Variation n Skewed Cross-sectional Distribution –Lotka’s Law –Price’s Law n Quantity-Quality Relation –Mass Producers and Perfectionists?

Individual Variation n Skewed Cross-sectional Distribution –Lotka’s Law –Price’s Law n Quantity-Quality Relation –Mass Producers and Perfectionists? –No … the Equal-Odds Rule –Continuum Connecting the Silent and the Prolific

Longitudinal Change n Randomness of Career-Wise Output –No “runs” –Poisson Distribution n Quantity-Quality Relation –Random Fluctuation Around Quality Ratio Baseline –Hence, the Equal-Odds Rule

Multiples n Distribution of Multiple Grades

Multiples n Distribution of Multiple Grades n Temporal Separation of Multiple Discoveries

Multiples n Distribution of Multiple Grades n Temporal Separation of Multiple Discoveries n Individual Variation in Multiple Participation

Multiples n Distribution of Multiple Grades n Temporal Separation of Multiple Discoveries n Individual Variation in Multiple Participation n Degree of Multiple Identity

Combinatorial Processes n Definitions n Assumptions n Implications n Elaboration n Objections

Definitions n Individual n Domain n Field

Assumptions n Individual Samples from Domain Ideas

Assumptions n Individual Samples from Domain Ideas n Within-Field Variation in Sample Size

Assumptions n Individual Samples from Domain Ideas n Within-Field Variation in Sample Size n Quasi-Random Combination of Ideas

Assumptions n Individual Samples from Domain Ideas n Within-Field Variation in Sample Size n Quasi-Random Combination of Ideas n Variation in Quality of Combinations

Assumptions n Individual Samples from Domain Ideas n Within-Field Variation in Sample Size n Quasi-Random Combination of Ideas n Variation in Quality of Combinations n Variation in Size of Fields

Assumptions n Individual Samples from Domain Ideas n Within-Field Variation in Sample Size n Quasi-Random Combination of Ideas n Variation in Quality of Combinations n Variation in Size of Fields n Communication of Ideational Combinations

Implications n Research Publications –Cross-sectional Variation –Longitudinal Change n Multiple Discoveries –Multiple Grades

Implications n Research Publications –Cross-sectional Variation –Longitudinal Change n Multiple Discoveries –Multiple Grades –Temporal Separation

Implications n Research Publications –Cross-sectional Variation –Longitudinal Change n Multiple Discoveries –Multiple Grades –Temporal Separation –Multiples Participation

Implications n Research Publications –Cross-sectional Variation –Longitudinal Change n Multiple Discoveries –Multiple Grades –Temporal Separation –Multiples Participation –Multiple Identity

Elaboration n Aggregated Data on Career Output –Aggregated Across Time Units –Aggregated Across Scientists n Cognitive Combinatorial Model –Longitudinal Submodel –Individual-Differences Submodel –Integrated Model

Objections n Alternative Explanations? –Multiplicative Models? –Cumulative Advantage? n Explanatory Limitations? –Too Abstract? –Yes, so...

Scientific Activity n Individuals: Research Programs n Fields: Peer Review n Domains: Disciplinary Zeitgeist

Individuals: Research Programs n The Features of High-Impact Programs n Repercussions of those Features

The Features of High-Impact Programs n Multiple Projects n Network of Enterprises (Gruber) n Variability in Nature of Projects

Projects Vary According to... n Research Topic n Degree of Risk n Intrinsic Importance n Programmatic Relevance n Amount of Progress n Type of Research n Current Degree of Effort

Repercussions of those Features n Crosstalk n Priming Effects n Serendipitous Events n Stochastic Ideational Output

Fields: Peer Review n Individuals as Members of Fields –Correspondence –Professional Meetings –Readings –Manuscript and Proposal Reviews n Hence Arises the Peer Review Paradox

Peer Review Paradox n Exposure to Explicit Standards for –Submitted Manuscripts –Grant Proposals n Internalization of Those Standards n Improvement with Practice n Inconsistency with Equal-Odds Rule

Resolution of Paradox n Low Reliability n Low Predictive Validity n Low Inferential Capacity

Domains: Disciplinary Zeitgeist n Two Forms of Zeitgeist –Sociocultural (e.g., communication systems) –Disciplinary (i.e., the ideational content of the domain at a particular point in time) n Yet Neither Can Ensure Deterministic Inevitability

Two Implications n Creative Ideas the Joint Product of –The Size of the Field –The Richness of the Domain n Variation in Individual Output Increases with Size of Field

Creative Scientists n Premise: Dispositional Characteristics and Developmental Experiences Should Correspond with the Hypothesized Combinatorial Process n However: Domain Contrasts in Degree of Constraint Imposed on Creativity –Scientific versus Artistic Creativity –Revolutionary versus Normal Science

Creative Scientists n Hence, NSC > RSC > AC Regarding Degree of Constraint

Creative Scientists n Hence, NSC > RSC > AC Regarding Degree of Constraint n With Corresponding Expectations Regarding Disposition and Development

Disposition n Intellectual Capacity –Intelligence Sufficient for Domain Mastery –Associative Richness for Combinatorial Capacity

Disposition n Intellectual Capacity –Intelligence Sufficient for Domain Mastery –Associative Richness for Combinatorial Capacity n Personal Qualities

Disposition n Intellectual Capacity –Intelligence Sufficient for Domain Mastery –Associative Richness for Combinatorial Capacity n Personal Qualities –Openness to Experience

Disposition n Intellectual Capacity –Intelligence Sufficient for Domain Mastery –Associative Richness for Combinatorial Capacity n Personal Qualities –Openness to Experience –Psychopathology

Development n Home Environment –Shared Effects –Nonshared Effects n Education and Training –Scholastic Performance –Level of Formal Education –Mentoring n Sociocultural Context

Scientific Discovery n Logical Processes: –The Newell-Simon Paradigm – Limitations of the Paradigm n Chance Processes –Insight Problems –Creative Production –Computer Problem Solving –Group Creativity

Conclusion: Scientific Creativity n The Three Alternative Perspectives: –Experimental Studies of the Discovery Process –Psychometric Studies of Creative Scientists –Behavioral Studies of Actual Creative Behavior in Science n Can Be Successfully Integrated n Using a Combinatorial Model