Capital Markets Master Deck August 2009. Debt Market Overview.

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Presentation transcript:

Capital Markets Master Deck August 2009

Debt Market Overview

CB Richard Ellis | Page 3 CBRE Capital Markets U.S. Commercial & Multifamily Outstanding Source: Mortgage Bankers Association May 2009 BY CAPITAL SOURCE Total $3.5 Trillion

CB Richard Ellis | Page 4 CBRE Capital Markets Loan Maturities By Lender Type Source: MBA

CB Richard Ellis | Page 5 CBRE Capital Markets Source: Realpoint Maturing CMBS Mortgages By Property Type

CB Richard Ellis | Page 6 CBRE Capital Markets The Boom n’ Bust Led by CMBS Issuance Billions Source: Commercial Mortgage Alert August 2009

CB Richard Ellis | Page 7 CBRE Capital Markets Commercial Real Estate Transaction Volume…Debt Spawns and Stalls Activity Source: Real Capital Analytics, Commercial Mortgage Alert

CB Richard Ellis | Page 8 CBRE Capital Markets Delinquencies Source: Mortgage Bankers Association

CB Richard Ellis | Page 9 CBRE Capital Markets CMBS Spreads… Source: Commercial Real Estate Direct

CB Richard Ellis | Page 10 CBRE Capital Markets Source: Mortgage Bankers Association Little Help on the Originations Side Commercial/MH Mortgage Bankers Originations Index by Investor Group

CB Richard Ellis | Page 11 CBRE Capital Markets 2009: What’s In & What’s Out INOUT On-Book LendingCMBS Conservative LeverageHigh Octane Capital Stack Equity In-DealCash Out Financing Risk Based PricingInefficient Pricing of Capital Correspondent & Relationship LendingLoan Brokerage High Touch Loan ServicerSecuritized/Impersonal Servicer Amortization Year ScheduleInterest Only Reserves Funded in CashNo Funded Escrow 450+/- Spreads100+/- Spreads Floor RatesUnlimited Float DCR’s In-PlaceProforma DCR’s RecourseNon-recourse

CB Richard Ellis | Page 12 CBRE Capital Markets Source: Mortgage Bankers Association Market is De-Leveraging Yesterday and Today Equity, 2 % Pref. Equity, 8% Mezzanine, 10% B-Note, 15% A-Note, 65% $80 Million 1 st Trust 2007 Loan Breakout 2009 $100 $90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0 Value A-Note, 45% B-Note, 15% Mezzanine, 15% Equity, 25% $45 Million 1 st Trust

CB Richard Ellis | Page 13 CBRE Capital Markets Capital Markets in Perspective * For multifamily product amortization schedule will usually be spread over 30 years.

CB Richard Ellis | Page 14 CBRE Capital Markets Current Retail Transaction

CB Richard Ellis | Page 15 CBRE Capital Markets Rent Roll Tenant Rentable Area (SF)% TotalRent/SFMonthly RentAnnual RentLease StartLease Expire Lowes 0%$0.00 $0NA Dollar General11,41612%$7.00$6,659.33$79,912Aug-04Aug-14 Stage22,40024%$3.56$6,645.33$79,744Oct-04Jan-15 Furniture Gallery15,00016%$7.25$9,062.50$108,750Jul-08Jul-18 Snap Fitness4,0004%$15.50$5,166.67$62,000Oct-07Jan-12 Woksom, Brown2,0002%$9.50$1,583.33$19,000Dec-05Dec-10 Verizon2,0802%$13.00$2,253.33$27,040Aug-09Sep-12 GNC1,7702%$9.00$1,327.50$15,930Sep-06Aug-11 Subway1,8002%$12.00$1,800.00$21,600Nov-09Oct-14 Blockbuster6,7202%$9.00$5,040.00$60,480Jul-89Jul-10 Army National Guard1,6227%$11.63$1,571.99$18,864Jun-06May-10 Agilus Health4,5202%$11.50$4,331.67$51,980Sep-06Sep-09 Little Ceasers1,4005%$12.75$1,487.50$17,850Apr-89Jul-13 Affordable Dentures2,8461%$8.00$1,897.33$22,768Nov-05Nov-10 Computers 2 suit1,1533%$13.50$1,297.13$15,566May-08Jun-13 Money to Lend2,1601%$9.38$1,688.40$20,261Nov-04Nov-14 Dillon's Rest. LOI4,0022%$14.00$4,669.00$56,028Apr-10Mar-20 CENLA Dentistry1,8004%$17.50$2,625.00$31,500Sep-09Sep-07 Wing Stop1,5012%$17.50$2,188.96$26,268Apr-09Apr-14 Firestone6,1216%$12.52$6,386.24$76,635May-88May-13 Occupied Total94, %$8.61$67,681.22$812,175 Vacant %$10.00$0.00$0 Totals94,311100%$8.61$67,681.22$812,175

CB Richard Ellis | Page 16 CBRE Capital Markets Operating Statement Income Base Rental Revenue $ 812,175 Tenant Expense Reimbursements 165,044 Gross Rental Revenue $ 977,219 Less: Economic Vacancy & Collection Loss10% (97,722) Effective Rental Revenue $ 879,497 Other Income $ - Effective Gross Income $ 879,497 Expenses Per SF CAM ,685 Insurance ,192 Real Estate Taxes ,513 Administrative ,000 Non-Reimburseable OpEx ,373 Management4.00% ,180 Total Operating Expenses ,943 Replacement Reserves$ ,147 Net Operating Income $ 638,407

CB Richard Ellis | Page 17 CBRE Capital Markets Loan Analysis 2009 Loan Analysis Income Capitalization 2008 Net Operating Income 1 $ 638,407 Capitalization Rate9.25% Estimated Value-Building & Primary Site Area $ 6,901,699 Rounded $ 6,900,000 Per Square Foot $ Loan Request $ 4,500,000 Per Square Foot $ Loan to Value Ratio65% Loan Terms Term10 years Interest Rate TypeFixed Index Yield3.50% Interest Rate Spread3.50% Effective Interest Rate7.00% Requested Amortization25 years Monthly Debt Service($31,805.06) Annual Debt Service($381,660.77) Debt Service Coverage Ratio1.67x Debt Constant8.48% Debt Yield14% 1 Brought forward from Operating Statement

CB Richard Ellis | Page 18 CBRE Capital Markets Loan Analysis 2007 Loan Analysis Income Capitalization 2008 Net Operating Income 1 $ 638,407 Capitalization Rate7.25% Estimated Value-Building & Primary Site Area $ 8,805,617 Rounded $ 8,810,000 Per Square Foot $ Loan Request $ 7,048,000 Per Square Foot $ Loan to Value Ratio80% Loan Terms Term10 years Interest Rate TypeFixed Index Yield4.63% Interest Rate Spread1.20% Effective Interest Rate5.83% Requested Amortization30 years Monthly Debt Service($41,489.10) Annual Debt Service($497,869.19) Debt Service Coverage Ratio1.28x Debt Constant7.06% Debt Yield9% 1 Brought forward from Operating Statement

Distressed Market Overview

CB Richard Ellis | Page 20 CBRE Capital Markets Distressed Market Source: RCA Troubled Assets Radar – US, As of June 26, 2009 $83.6 B Troubled $15.8 B Restructured Modified $10.5 B Lender REO $109.9 B Current Distressed

CB Richard Ellis | Page 21 CBRE Capital Markets The Volume of Distressed Deals is Rising Rapidly Source: RCA Troubled Assets Radar, June 2009 Lender REO now accounts for 9.4% of total Distressed Assets

CB Richard Ellis | Page 22 CBRE Capital Markets Largest Owners of Distressed Properties Source: RCA Troubled Assets Radar and TWR, June 2009 OwnerValue (in Millions) General Growth Properties$ 15,113 Centro Properties Group$ 6,064 Lightstone Group JV$ 5,925 Macklowe Properties$ 3,848 Centro Properties JV Watt Cmmcl Props$ 2,318 Broadway Partners$ 1,741 Cabi Developers (GICSA)$ 1,606 American International Group (AIG)$ 1,402 Sunwest Management$ 1,279 Columbia Sussex Group $ 1,136 Bethany Group$ 1,124 Deutsche Bank AG$ 1,000 DBSI Group$ 839 Boca Developers$ 835 Glen Smith & Glen Development$ 800 Sault Ste. Marie Tribe$ 755 Babcock & Brown$ 748 Elad Properties JV IDB Group$ 625 Tarragon Corporation$ 607

CB Richard Ellis | Page 23 CBRE Capital Markets Largest Holders of REO Properties Source: RCA Troubled Assets Radar and TWR, June 2009 HolderValue (in Millions) Deutsche Bank$ 1,000 Wachovia$ 726 Corus Bank$ 656 iStar Financial$ 450 JP Morgan Chase$ 407 GE Capital$ 323 Goldman Sachs$ 222 Bank of America$ 192 Eurohypo AG$ 189 UBS Bank Corp. $ 158 Fremont Investment and Loan$ 141 LaSalle Bank$ 127 Lehman Brothers$ 111 Credit Suisse$ 110 Colonial Bank$ 100 UMB Bank NA$ 98 Legg Mason Real Estate$ 81 Allianz SE$ 72

CB Richard Ellis | Page 24 CBRE Capital Markets Trouble Was Brewing in the Most Recent Quarter Source: RCA Trouble Assets Radar, June 2009

CB Richard Ellis | Page 25 CBRE Capital Markets Metros with Most Distressed and Potentially Troubled Assets Source: TWR, RCA Troubled Assets Radar, June 2009 The Metros below account for 63.5% of Distressed and Potentially Troubled Assets

CB Richard Ellis | Page 26 CBRE Capital Markets Implications: What does this all mean? Lack of trades creates a question of an asset’s value. Without comparable data points, sellers do not feel the pressure to realize losses. As a result of high loan to value (LTV) ratios for maturities in 2010–12 and a high absolute volume of maturities, the catalysts for acquisition opportunities is expected to be front-loaded in the 2009–14 window. Once incentives to trade are reinstated and banks’ balance sheets are cleared of toxic assets via government programs, the commercial real estate market will be poised for a high volume of transactions and financing opportunities.

Equity Overview

CB Richard Ellis | Page 28 CBRE Capital Markets Commercial Real Estate Transaction Volume…Debt Spawns and Stalls Activity Source: Real Capital Analytics, Commercial Mortgage Alert

CB Richard Ellis | Page 29 CBRE Capital Markets *Includes Privatizations Capital Markets Activity includes all investment sales and financings in said period. Investment Sales data from Real Capital Analytics 1 st Half 2009 Production Activity US Capital Markets Activity Levels Property TypeCBRETotal Market* 1 st half 091 st half 08% chg1 st half 091 st half 08% chg Office$1.1B$7.0B-84.3%$5.7B$30.9B-81.6% Retail$0.4B$1.1B-63.6%$3.5B$12.7B-72.4% Industrial$0.5B$2.8B-82.1%$3.6B$13.7B-73.7% Multi-Housing$1.3B$4.0B-67.5%$4.8B$23.4B-79.5% Hotels$0.1B$0.5B-80.0%$1.2B$7.8B-84.6% Land$0.1B$0.4B-75.0%N/A Inv. Sales Volume$3.5B$15.8B-77.8%$18.8B$88.5B-78.8% Loan Origination Volume$3.2B$5.6B-43.9%N/A US Capital Markets Activity$6.7B$21.4B-68.7%$18.8B$88.5B-78.8%

CB Richard Ellis | Page 30 CBRE Capital Markets Transaction Volume – YTD 2009 * Through July 2009 Source: Real Capital Analytics