Modeling Urban Water Management: Using Climate Change Information Margaret Hahn and Richard Palmer University of Washington Department of Civil and Environmental.

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Presentation transcript:

Modeling Urban Water Management: Using Climate Change Information Margaret Hahn and Richard Palmer University of Washington Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering

Contents Project Area and Background –Interconnection of Everett, Seattle and Tacoma Project process –Linked models Results of Reservoir Management model –Annual minimum storage Impacts on planning process –Existing plans may not be sufficient

Tacoma Seattle Intertie HAH Reservoir Pipeline 1 Pipeline 5 TSI Cedar Reservoir Lake Washington Lake Youngs TACOMA SKCRWA SEATTLE Pipeline 4 Pipeline 2 Revised from Nelligan-Doran, 1999 N

Everett Seattle Intertie ESSL TPL 1 TPL 2 Tolt Reservoir Seattle Everett Pipeline 5 Pipelines 2-4 Clearview Pipeline Snohomish County Spada Lake Reservoir Proposed ESI Alignment King County N

Planning and Management Analysis 2020 and 2040 forecasted demands 2020 and 2040 climate change based stream flows –PCM –ECHAM Status quo system configuration Tacoma Seattle Intertie Everett Seattle Intertie

Overall Analysis Process Meteorological data Hydrology model Calibration Climate Shift Impacts Evaluation Precip and temp DHSVM Historic vs Simulated Downscaled GCM CRYSTAL model

DHSVM Distributed Hydrology-Soil-Vegetation Model

CRYSTAL Cascade Regional Yield Simulation and Analysis Model Simulation model of Puget Sound water supply Considers future demands, policies, supplies and infrastructures Uses weekly time step Developed in Powersim

Picture of Crystal

Planning and Management Analysis 2020 and 2040 forecasted demands 2020 and 2040 climate change based stream flows –PCM –ECHAM Status quo system configuration Tacoma Seattle Intertie Everett Seattle Intertie

Results Compare –minimum annual storage –number of shortfalls –duration of shortfalls Reliability –43 year record –any shortfall is considered a failure –no demand modification

Chester Morse Reservoir

Status QuoTS IntertieTS & ES Intertie 76% 23%38% 83%23%40%100%95% Annual Reliability

Planning Implications Ongoing regional planning efforts are important TSI will provide only a portion of supply needed Climate change results imply regional needs for cooperation and new approaches Without new supply or dramatic changes in demand, system reliability will be unacceptable