“OLYMPEX” Physical validation Precipitation estimation Hydrological applications November-December 2014 PMM Hydrology Telecon, 22 October 2010.

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Presentation transcript:

“OLYMPEX” Physical validation Precipitation estimation Hydrological applications November-December 2014 PMM Hydrology Telecon, 22 October 2010

Contributors W. Peterson R. Cifelli T. Schneider D. Lettenmaier N. Voison N. Schraner J. Lundquist S. Medina S. Brodzik

The Olympic Peninsula is a “natural laboratory” for precipitation studies Extremely large precipitation accumulation produced as the moist SWly flow impinges on coastal terrain Annual average precipitation (PRISM) Maximum

Detailed Climatology Verified by gauges: Minder et al yr MM5 Nov-Jan precipitation climatology (mm)

Low 0ºC level Distribution of Nov-Jan 0°C level for flow that is onshore and moist at low levels (KUIL sounding) Mean 0°C level during storms = 1.5 km See this full range in individual storms! Frequency of occurrence 0°C level (km) Plot provided by Justin Minder  rain at low elevations, snow at higher levels

Persistent southwesterly flow during the winter provides a reliable source of moisture NCEP long-term mean sea level pressure (mb) for winter (December to January) and topography

NWS WSR-88D radar to be in place ~2012

NOAA Mobile Atmospheric River Monitoring System in Westport (since 2009)  Time Height Signal-to- noise ratio Radial velocity Data from vertically-pointing S-band radar

UW fine-scale observing network across a southwestern Olympics ridge Detailed gauge network Minder et al. 2008

WRF Ensemble mode 1.33 resolution Data assimilation UW Real Time Regional Environmental Modeling (Mass & Lettenmaier)

Real time hydrological prediction driven by the UW WRF simulations Also—ESRL will be doing parallel modeling UW Real Time Regional Environmental Modeling (Mass & Lettenmaier)

Overview of OLYMPEX layout

SNOTEL RAWS S-Band profiler Atmos. River Observatory NPOL WSR-88D Quillayute Rawinsonde (Global Hawk?) +NSF Facilities!!??

Detail of Quinault Valley

(i.e. are physical assumptions in GPM algorithms robust under different conditions) a.Rain-snow transition on sloping terrain b.Melting layer effect on algorithm performance c.Different storm sectors—prefrontal, frontal, postfrontal d.Different surface conditions—ocean, land, coast, hills, mountains Physical validation of rain and snow retrievals

Rain and snow measurement (i.e. validation of its accuracy from satellite instruments mounted on aircraft) a.Do precipitation measurements transition accurately from –ocean to land –land to mountains? b.Do they handle the orographic enhancement of precipitation? c.Can satellite rain measurements be downscaled accurately relative to the topography?

Hydrologic applications (i.e. testing whether GPM data can improve streamflow forecasting in complex terrain) a.Can satellite rain estimates over hills and mountains provide useful input to real-time hydrologic forecasting? b.Does downscaling relative to topography improve hydrologic forecasting? c.Can assimilation of satellite rain estimates into regional forecasting models improve hydrological forecasts?

OLYMPEX is a fully integrated GV experiment i.Physical validation ii.Rain and snow measurement iii.Assimilation of GPM measurements into hydrologic forecasts  The climatology, terrain, and existing infrastructure have all the ingredients for hosting an integrated campaign Summary This research was supported by NASA grant NNX10AH70G