Climate Change Initiative Beijing: Asian G-WADI meeting 17 July 2010 Dr. Sedigheh Torabi Ministry of Energy “Head of Policy Making and Water Allocation Sector” Khajou Bridge – Isfahan (Constructed 17th Century)

Table of Content General Overview Water Governance in Iran MOE Organizational Chart Climate Change in Iran Climate Change Initiative General Four Years Plan Next G-WADI Meeting

I.R. of IRAN Area: 1.648 million km2 Population: 70 million No of provinces: 30 Average Rainfall: 271 mm Neighboring Countries: Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Turkey Arab States in Persian Gulf Language: Farsi, Azerbaijani, Kurdish, …

What happened in the past? First Book: “the Excavation of Hidden Water” Karadji – about 1000 years ago 50 dams more than 200 yrs old Quanat: the famous underground water system Which backs to at least 2500 years ago

Population growth 2021 100 2001 66.0 1961 24.3 Unit: Million people

Iran Climatological Condition Very humid region 5.3% Semi-Arid area %20 Sum: 15.5% Dry desert region 29% Humid region 6.3% Over dry region 5.35 % Sum: 84.5% Mediterranean region 5% Semi- humid region 4.3% Renewable water resources of Iran are around 25% of the world mean value.

Water Resources

Water Cycle in Iran BCM Total 159 Internal Surface Water Resources 92 Transboundary Resources 13 Total Water Resources 105 Infiltration from Surface Water 13 Total of Available Surface Water 92 Direct Infiltration from Rainfall 25 Total Infiltration (including direct infiltration from rainfall) 38 Available Fresh Water Resources 130 Return Water from Consumption 29 Total 159

Annual Renewable Water availability Renewable Fresh Water Year Annual Renewable Water availability (cubic meter/capita) 1956 7000 2001 2000 2021 1300

Water Consumption at a Glance

A Glance to Water Consumption 85 BCM Surface Water 42 BCM Ground Water 50 BCM 6 BCM 1.1 BCM

Water Consumption Vision 100 million Population Consumption increase due to urbanization and improved welfare Water Demand

Water Consumption Vision We need 30 BCM more In the Normal Situation Water Supply Water Demand 123 BCM

Challenges: 1- Excess withdrawal of ground water resources. 2- Shortage of environmental water supply of aquatic bodies. 3- Not considering the effects of new water resources development projects on downstream operational and under construction projects. 4- Lack of equality between economical development of upstream and downstream regions of basins.

Excess withdrawal of ground water resources. Number of Plains = 609 Population Forbidden Plains 2007 70 246 1961 24.3 Unit: Million people Unit: Number

Groundwater Depletion 50 100 150 groundwater Level (m) 200 m 200 250 300 ? 350 Year 400 450 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Land Subsidence as a result of ground water overdraft

Restricted plains

Water Governance in IRAN Ministry Of Energy: Water Supply and Allocation; Wastewater Affairs Ministry Of Jihad-Agriculture: as most important water user (92%) Ministry Of Health: Control of drinking water Department Of Environment: Protection of water bodies

MOE Organizational Chart Ministry of Energy Regional Water authorities Central selection board Security office Bureau of operation assessment Bureau of public awareness & international objects Ministry officials Deputy of Conservation& Parliament relations Deputy of Electric energy Deputy of Water & Wastewater Deputy of Research & Human resources Deputy of Planning & Economic objects Water Allocation Sector Water & Wastewater macro planning Bureau Planning Sector Engineering & Enviormental standards Bureau Budget Sector Water &Wastewater Operation & Conservation Bureau Water Economy & Operation Optimization Bureau

Vulnerability and Adaptation (Objectives) Climate Change in IRAN Vulnerability and Adaptation (Objectives) Identification of vulnerable sectors Finding answers for questions regarding climate change impacts. Providing the necessary information for making country’s development programs … National Climate Change Office, december 2009

Vulnerability and Adaptation: Climate modeling and change study LARS-WG MGGICC- SCENGEN PRECIS This study was conducted by the National Center for Climatology of IRMO. National Climate Change Office

National Climate Change Office LARS WG Results 2010-2039 Temperature Increasing 0.5 degrees of Centigrade in mean annual temperature National Climate Change Office

Spatial Distribution of Temperature (2010-2039) National Climate Change Office

Spatial Change in Average Rainfall 2020 National Climate Change Office

Summary of LARS WG Results 9% reduction in average rainfall Average temperature will increase by 0.5 C Threshold of heavy rainfall will be increased, therefore the flood index will be increased Drought and number of dry days will be increased National Climate Change Office

National Climate Change Office MAGICC-SCENGEN Results 2000-2100 Change in Temperature National Climate Change Office

National Climate Change Office MAGICC-SCENGEN Results 2000-2100 Change in Rainfall % National Climate Change Office

National Climate Change Office Summary of Climate Change Models: 9% reduction in average rainfall Average temperature will increase by 0.5 C 36% reduction in average runoff of Karun and Karkhe Basins Reduction in average runoff in 25 basins Increase in average runoff in 5 basins (max 12%) National Climate Change Office

Understand impacts of climate change to plan for adaptation/mitigation Ultimate goal: Understand impacts of climate change to plan for adaptation/mitigation Step 1: Define a baseline for the study + appropriate criteria for CC including shift in changing climate phases Step 2: Observe carefully signs of CC impacts Step 3: Identify the root causes of changes Step 5: Devise of an adaptation plan for each of the G-WADI basins Identify immediate measures for CC adaptation Costs associated with climate change and its adaptation Step 4: Modeling , climate projection, risk assessment Climate Change initiative

General 4 years Plan: Year 1: Getting started and review of available sources Engage with partners Identify resources Review existing strategies  Collection of available data

General 4 years Plan: Year 2: Baseline Definition Collection of field data Defining a baseline for climate comparison and devising climate change criteria Developing a comprehensive report on observed changes at the basin level  

General 4 years Plan: Year 3: Modeling Phase Identifying root causes of observed changes Scenario development and future climate modeling Cost analysis to estimate costs associated with the predicted climate change

General 4 years Plan: Year 4: Devising an Adaptation Plan Devise of a CC adaptation plan for each G-WADI Basin Recommending immediate, mid-term and long-term measures for adaptation to the CC in each basin Recommendations for formulation of the national CC adaptation plan A workshop shall be held at the end of each year to discuss achieved results and for coordination among different units.

Hosting a G-WADI event in Iran in 2011 Next G-WADI Meeting: Hosting a G-WADI event in Iran in 2011

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