Copyright 2006 – Biz/ed Business Forecasting.

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Presentation transcript:

Copyright 2006 – Biz/ed Business Forecasting

Copyright 2006 – Biz/ed Business Forecasting

Copyright 2006 – Biz/ed Business Forecasting

Copyright 2006 – Biz/ed Business Forecasting Used to try to predict the future Uses two main methods: Qualitative – seeking opinions on which to base decision making –Consumer panels, focus groups, etc Quantitative – using statistical data to help inform decision making –Identifying trends –Moving averages – seasonal, cyclical, random –Extrapolation - simple

Copyright 2006 – Biz/ed Business Forecasting Some businesses use alternative methods: Astrologers! Is such a strategy any better or worse than using quantitative or qualitative methods?

Copyright 2006 – Biz/ed Business Forecasting

Copyright 2006 – Biz/ed Business Forecasting Costs and Benefits of Forecasting: Benefits: –Aids decision making –Informs planning and resource allocation decisions –If data is of high quality, can be accurate

Copyright 2006 – Biz/ed Business Forecasting Costs: –Data not always reliable or accurate –Data may be out of date –The past is not always a guide to the future –Qualitative data may be influenced by peer pressure –Difficulty of coping with changes to external factors out of the business’s control – e.g. economic policy, political developments (9/11?), natural disasters – hurricanes, earthquakes, etc.