Pacific Northwest Climate Model Scenarios 2008 Climate Impacts Group & Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Washington Eric Salathé Philip.

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Presentation transcript:

Pacific Northwest Climate Model Scenarios 2008 Climate Impacts Group & Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Washington Eric Salathé Philip Mote Valérie Dulière Emily Jump

Are Humans Responsible?

IPCC - WGI Are Humans Responsible?

IPCC (1995): “Balance of evidence suggests discernible human influence” IPCC (2001): “Most of warming of past 50 years likely (odds 2 out of 3) due to human activities” IPCC (2007): “Most of warming of past 50 years very likely (odds 9 out of 10) due to greenhouse gases” Are Humans Responsible?

20th century seasonal cycle in PNW

Annual mean, minus NCEP

20th century trend

PNW Temperature Change 10°F 0°F

2040s s PNW

Projected Temperature temperature2020s2040s (°C)oldnewoldnew lowest average1.11.2*1.62.0* highest *weighted average

Projected Precipitation precipitation2020s2040s %oldnewoldnew lowest average21*22* highest6129 *weighted average

IPSL ECHAM5 SRES A1BSRES B1 CCSM3 Percentages of change in the annual maximum daily precipitation with a 10 years return period for each PNW grid cell between and % +18.8% +11.4% +10.8% +11.8% +10.6% changes in extreme daily precipitation

Downscaling global models for regional studies

Downscaling -- Winter

Downscaling -- Summer

Mesoscale Climate Model  Based on Regional Weather Model (MM5, WRF)  Nested grids km  Advanced land-surface model (NOAH)  Forced by Global Climate Model output (boundary conditions)

Regional questions Snow/moisture/cloud interactions Extreme precipitation Heat waves Wind storms

Summary Temp and precip: central values roughly the same as 2005 estimates, 0.5°F/decade warming and little change in annual total precip Increased likelihood of drier summers, wetter winters, heavy rains Coming soon: much more detailed scenarios

sea level pressure (NCEP, CGCM3.1)

Model Performance observed

Ranked Model Performance

Scenario Selection - T/P Scatter

Future Storm Track Changes North America Asia Europe NP Stronger N Atlantic Storm track Stronger N Pacific Storm track ULBRICH ET AL Change from to Composite of 16 Global Climate Models

Future global climate IPCC Fourth Assessment Global

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