NASA Sun-Solar System Connection Roadmap 1 Targeted Outcome: Phase , Safeguarding our Outbound Journey Determine Extremes of the Variable Radiation & Space Environments at Earth, Moon, & Mars J1A: Targeted Outcome to Capabilities to Implementation Measurements of atmospheric, ionospheric, magnetospheric & interplanetary environment enhancements & conditions of occurrence Determine relationships of trapped & SEP fluxes plus atmosphere & ionosphere changes with solar-interplanetary conditions Enabling Capabilities & Measurements Assimilative & theoretical models to provide linkage between observables & near term plus future environmental enhancements Implementation Phase 1: Required Understanding Variability of Space Environments: at & between Earth, Moon & Mars CME and High Speed Stream Associated Planetary & Interplanetary Radiation Responses Processes that Lead to Extreme Environments Cosmic Ray Modulation and Interaction with Solar Wind Structures Causes of Surface, Atmosphere, Ionosphere & Magnetosphere Environment Enhancements Internal Processes of Magnetospheric Radiation Enhancements Current Missions: TIMED, Soho, ACE, Cassini, Cluster, etc.: Extend environment data bases & inform on current environment conditions in support of model development & testing SDO, RBSP, ITSP to provide new environmental measurements & provide the data for new model and theory development relevant to particle acceleration, ionosphere structure & responses plus measure variability of photonic inputs to Earth & Mars T-A. Inner Sentinels at end to start analyses of inner heliosphere SEP acceleration and propagation Model Development: To provide linkage between spatial regions plus source-response relationships Theory Program: To understand responses of planetary (Earth, Moon, Mars) & interplanetary environments to solar and internal drivers LCAS Campaigns: Provide upper atmosphere and lower ionosphere responses to energy inputs and determination of atmospheric shielding efficiencies (has some Martian applications) Measurements needed from planetary atmospheres through interplanetary medium MMS: Additional environmental measurements and data for new model and theory development plus data on SEP magnetotail access Determine dominant mechanisms of dust charging & transport on the Moon and Mars that impact human and robotic safety & productivity. Theory/modeling & lab meas. to simulate lunar surface & Mars conditions. Observations of charge, size, and velocity distribution of dust grains on Moon & at Mars in T- A (Thermosphere-Atmosphere). MSL for radiation environment on surface of Mars; In situ measurements on rovers & in Mars T-A SR&T type of dusty plasma theory, modeling, and laboratory program focusing on Moon surface and Mars T-A environment. L1 SW & SEP Monitor Enabling Contributing

NASA Sun-Solar System Connection Roadmap 2 J1B: Nowcast Solar and Space Weather and Forecast “all-clear” Periods for Space Explorers near Earth - Phase , Safeguard our Outward Journey Identification and Development of Spectral Diagnostics for NEW Precursor Identification Continuous remote-sensing observations (white light, XUV, magnetograph, radio-wave), multi-point in-situ observations (plasma, field, particles) Enabling Capabilities & Measurements Integrated Sun-Earth models using much improved solar inputs and including energetic particle generation/acceleration Implementation Phase 1: Required Understanding Origin of SEP events and relation to CMEs and other active phenomena CME buildup and initiation / triggering Coronal hole origin and relation to open flux Origin of fast and slow solar wind Propagation of SEPs and solar wind transients Propagation and evolution of ambient global solar wind Evolution of corona (non-CME) Theory & Modeling Program SubOrbital program To test and verify new, next-generation prototype instrumentation Prepare for Solar polar magnetic field observations in Phase 2 Prepare for Far side detection in Phase 2 In situ coronal observations (acceleration) Origin of ionospheric irregularies and radio scintillations Origin of thermospheric density structures 2 Conditions for Radiation Belt disturbances Conditions for Ionospheric-related communication/drag disturbances Co-located, Simultaneous Measurements of ionospheric and thermospheric density, composition and drifts Measurements of Earth’s radiation belts DOPPLER, SEPM - Enabling improved Nowcasting and Future forecasting (in Phase 2) by identifying and developing NEW Precursor signatures for solar activity, including spectral disk signatures of CME initiation and onset, flare eruption, and flare initiated SPEs LWS/STP missionsEnabling RBSP, ITSP, IT Imager – Enabling co-located, simultaneous measurements of ionospheric and thermospheric density, composition and drifts LWS missionsEnabling Current Missions - including ACE, CNOFS, SOHO, STEREO, WIND, SDO, Solar B, TIMED, Polar, IMAGE, Cluster, THEMIS Great ObservatoryEnabling

Near-Sun in situ measurements of charged particle distribution, composition, waves & fields; neutrons, hard X- rays & gamma rays Enabling Capabilities & Measurements Implementation Phase 2: Required Understanding Particle acceleration mechanisms in CME shocks and CME/flare current sheets Recognition of precursors of large CMEs, flares and SEP events responsible for major space weather disturbances SEPM, SIRA to fully characterize coronal sources of SEPs, CME shocks and current sheets Solar Probe for in situ sampling of inner heliosphere Doppler to identify disk signatures of CME, flare, and SEP initiations SENTINELS Relationship between CME evolution and pre-existing solar wind conditions On-Disk UV/EUV Spectrographic imaging for flow velocities, energy release signatures; Disk Magnetograph for magnetic field topology and evolution UV Spectroscopic determin- ation of Pre/Post-shock density, speed, compression; ion/ electron velocity distributions, charge states, abundances; Alfven speed, magnetic field, reconnection rates in CME shocks, flares, current sheets Integrated empirical Theory/Modeling Program To guide the evolution of physics based predictive theory Visible light Coronagraph / Polarimeter for electron density evolution and flow speeds Acceleration and heating mechanisms and sources of the fast and slow solar wind Relationship between magnetic flux emergence & transport and the solar wind Magnetic field (strength & helicity) and links to solar wind at all latitudes High latitude observations of fields & particles SPI or Telemachus To characterize high latitude source regions Solar Orbiter for in situ sampling of inner heliosphere SOLAR-B, SDO, STP and LWS missions from previous phases Assumed Phase 1 Assets Enabling Flagship Mission Enabling STP Program Contributing Partnership Enabling LWS Program J2A: Characterize the Near-Sun Source Region of the Space Environment Phase , Safeguard the Outward Journey 3 Understand solar reconnection through the planetary analog Multipoint observations of magnetospheric reconnection & reconfiguration Earth and Mars missions to provide context and analogs Contributing Program ? Geospace observations to quantify effects of solar sources Link the solar disturbances to their geoeffective consequences SWB Contributing Program ? IR and radio measurements

J2B: Reliably Forecast Space Weather for the Earth-Moon System; Make First Space Weather Nowcasts at Mars – Phase , Safeguard the Outward Journey Enabling Capabilities & Measurements Implementation Phase 2: Required Understanding CME energy buildup, initiation and onset (triggering) Propagation of Ambient SW, SW transients, and SEPs Origin of SPEs and relation to CMEs, CME strength/propagation and other phenomena Ionospheric control of magnetospheric dynamics Relationship between CME evolution, SW conditions and SEP fluxes Predict particle escape from shock and transport through heliosphere Predict character of CMEs and their efficiency to accelerate particles Assimilation of Integrated Sun-Earth-Moon- Mars models using observational inputs for predictive models Both in-situ and remote observations of Mars’ ionosphere and atmosphere Ability to recognize precursors and triggers of large CMEs & incorporate them into models Sentinels, SWB, Heliostorm/L1 Monitor – Provide multi-point network of in- situ observations Enabling MagCon, IMC, GEC, GEMINI - Characterize near-Earth environment Enabling DOPPLER, SEPM, SHIELDS - Enabling improved Nowcasting and forecasting by identifying and developing NEW observational techniques & Precursor signatures for solar activity, spectral disk signatures of CME initiation and onset, flare eruption, and SEP events Enabling MTO, Mars Aeronomy – provide remote sensing and in-situ observations to enable local space weather nowcasting at Mars Enabling Next generation remote sensing precursor and multi-point in-situ measurements & models in place Causes and consequences of explosive reconfiguration of the magnetosphere 4 Theory/Model Program: Integrated predictive models for Earth- Moon and Mars System -- Dusty plasma theory, modeling, and laboratory program focusing on Lunar and Mars surface environment Mechanisms of dust charging & transport impacting human & robotic safety & productivity Mars & Lunar surface obs. of charge, size, and velocity distribution of dust grains. In-situ dust, radiation and environment measurements on planetary rovers Understand both Earth’s and Mars’ IT response to space weather Identify causes and impacts of space weather at Mars Multipoint measurements of magnetospheric reconfiguration Multipoint measurements to quantify ionospheric control of magnetospheric dynamics Radiation Belt Dynamics SPI provide polar solar magnetic field observation Contributing

J2C: Determine Mars Atmospheric Variability Relevant to Aerocapture, Entry, Descent, Landing, Surface, Navigation and Communications – Phase , Safeguard the Outward Journey Theory & Modelling Program To develop an Assimilative Model for Mars’ whole Atmosphere Mars Dynamics Mission To collect observations of densities, temperatures and winds km over all local times at Mars Implementation Phase 2: ITM WAVES Mission To inform on wave- wave, wave-mean flow processes and parameterizations relevant to Mars Empirical models of global Mars atmosphere structure & variability Simultaneous and coordinated global measurements of neutral & plasma density, B-field, temperature, winds Enabling Capabilities & Measurements Electrical & Dust Environments Required Understanding Dust, aerosol evolution and characteristics Wave-wave interactions at all scales Wave- turbulence interactions Parameterizations of turbulence and gravity wave effects in GCMs Wave-mean flow interactions Plasma-neutral coupling with B-field Non-LTE radiative transfer Plasma irregularities at Earth & Mars & effects on radio propagation Lightning Mitigate ionosphere effects on precision landing (GPS) Neutral & plasma instabilities First principles data-assimilating models for predicting global atmosphere and ionosphere structure Critical Regimes: Entry, Descent & Landing (EDL), 0-40 km; Aerocapture, km; Aerobraking & Orbital Lifetime, km; Ionosphere km Potential Scout 5 GEC Dipper mission, Earth analog toMars dynamics and variability of the lower thermosphere Chemical and Dynamical Coupling between ITM disturbances and the lower atmosphere Mars I-T-A State Assumes ITSP, IT IMAGER, CNOFS, TIMED, MAP Enabling Contributing

Determination of the direction and strength of the local interstellar field Enabling Capabilities & Measurements Implementation Phase 3: Required Understanding “Filtration” effects of the boundary region on the velocity and temperature of interstellar neutral atoms and molecules entering the heliosphere Global topology and time dependence of the termination shock (TS) Interstellar Probe to fully characterize the boundary region and take the first sample of ISM HIGO sampling 1-4 AUof interstellar neutral gas and pickup ions as well as ENA imaging Outer heliosphere radio (2-5 kHz) direction finding Estimates of ionization state and composition of the interstellar medium In situ measurements of fields and particles in the heliosheath and beyond Imaging of the boundary region using UV and ENAs from both inside and outside the TS Integrated empirical Theory/Modeling Program To guide the interpretation of both in situ and remote imaging of the boundary region and beyond Radio probing (kHz) of the boundary region from the outer heliosphere Structure of the heliosheath region outside the termination shock (TS) Existence (?) of a heliospheric bow shock ~100 AU beyond the termination shock (TS) Effect of the local interstellar magnetic field on the boundary region Variations in the outer heliosphere of magnetic field, plasma, interstellar pickup ions, and energetic particles (drivers of variations in the TS) Telemachus To characterize high latitude heliosphere for drivers of the TS and inner helisophere Residual modulation of galactic cosmic rays in the heliosheath J3A: Analyze the First Direct Samples of the Interstellar Medium Phase beyond, Safeguard the Outward Journey 6 EnablingContributing

J3B: Provide Situational Awareness of Space Environment Throughout Inner Solar System - Phase beyond, Safeguard the Outward Journey Enabling Capabilities & Measurements Integrated Sun-Earth System models using observational inputs and including energetic particle generation/acceleration/transport Implementation Phase 3: 2025 and beyond Required Understanding Determine and recognize precursors and triggers of large CMEs, shocks, SEP events Relationship between solar magnetic field evolution, triggers and CME strength & propagation in inner solar system SHIELDS & SPI for full Sun remote sensing SWB, SPI, Mars GOES for multi- point in situ SIRA +an explorer To track CMEs from Sun to Earth Full-Sun remote-sensing observations (white light, XUV, EUV, radio-wave) including coronal & photospheric magnetic field measurements Relationship between CME evolution, pre-existing solar wind conditions and energetic particle fluxes Multi point in-situ observations (plasma, field, particles) including 360 coverage in ecliptic at 1 AU; and within planetary magnet-spheres and ionospheres-thermospheres especially Earth and Mars Assimilation of remote-sensing and in situ measurements into predictive models 7 Determine & recognize precursors and triggers of instabilities in planetary ionospheres & thermospheres Determine & recognize precursors and triggers of magnetic storms, substorms and particle acceleration for all planetary bodies with intrinsic magnetic fields Remote sensing of the state of magnetosphere and ionosphere- thermosphere systems ENA & hyperspectral remote sensing missions for Earth & full L1 monitors(in situ+full spectrum) for Earth, Mars and other planets of Exploration program. In situ observations of inner magnetospheres and ionosphere- thermosphere state and state changes for inputs to assimulative models Enabling

Targeted Outcome: Phase 2025+, Safeguarding our Outbound Journey Reliably predict atmospheric and radiation environment at Mars to ensure safe surface operations J3C: Reliably predict atmospheric and radiation environment at Mars to ensure safe surface operations Remote measurements of atmospheric, ionospheric, & interplanetary environment enhancements & conditions of occurrence In situ GCR & SEP fluxes plus primary & secondary surface radiation at Mars Enabling Capabilities & Measurements Assimilative & theoretical models that provide now casting plus near term & long term predictions of environment Implementation Phase 3: Required Understanding Variability of Martian Atmosphere, Ionosphere and Radiation Environments What Conditions & Processes Lead to Extreme Environments? Causes of High Speed Winds and Dust Storm Generation Causes of Surface, Atmosphere, Ionosphere & Radiation Environment Enhancements Internal Processes of the Atmosphere Assumes, results from robotic surveys of Mars (i.e.MD, MAP occurred) plus results from solar-helio and Geospace missions (SDO, DP, HIS, RBSP, ITSP, LRO, Lunar exper- ience etc) as sources of model & predictive cap- ability development. Assumes MSL characteri- zation of radiation environ- ment and its extremes Continued Model Development: Provide linkage between spatial regions plus source-response relationships via solar- interplanetary predictive tools and assimilative NRT observations Theory Program: To refine understanding of planetary (Earth, Moon, Mars) & interplanetary environment responses to solar-interplanetary and internal drivers Measurements needed from planetary surface, atmosphere, ionosphere & interplanetary medium Obs. along Sun-Mars-line (ACE/GOES Equivalent w GPS like capability) w remote solar- interplanetary & in situ plasma-particle obs. as minimum plus Mars atmospheric-ionospheric remote and in situ obs. from space and ground (I.e. MARS Orbiter and MAP equivalents) Determine/Predict Long Term Atmospheric, Ionosphere and Radiation Climatology In situ Ionosphere, Atmosphere & solar-interplanetary conditions Community & program access to system level Sun-Planet models SCOPE, Telemachus - if not yet flown Enabling Continued Virtual Observatory effort joint with Exploration to feed into model development Contribuing Enabling Partnership

Sun-Solar System Connection END