Why People vote Group factors and Issues. Clearly Stated Learning Objectives Examine the 2008 Election in the broader context of American electoral history.

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Presentation transcript:

Why People vote Group factors and Issues

Clearly Stated Learning Objectives Examine the 2008 Election in the broader context of American electoral history Analyze the theories of why people vote and apply them to the 2008 Election.

REGION It is not what it used to be

The Solid South A key component of the Roosevelt coalition – 11 states of the Confederacy Provided 52% of necessary votes for Wilson in % of the necessary votes for victory in % of Kennedy’s vote in % for Jimmy Carter in 1976 – Crucial for Opportunity Costs for Democratic Candidates

Why the South Used to be more important Shared the characteristics of an important group – Large – Reliable The GOP Southern Strategy changes this

The Shift in the South 56.6% of Bush’s necessary votes in 2008 – The GOP needs it, the Dems can win without it Only 1 Non-southern Democratic Candidate from won election Obama Mobilizes African American Voters in large states (FL, NC, VA)

Why Region is not as Important Mobility National exposure of the Media Region is an intervening variable, as primary factors really push vote

Region in 2008

Cities and Suburbs Urban areas and Rural Areas America is becoming less rural Obama dominates cities, and wins the burbs

Where We live

Gender and Marriage The Gender Gap Why?

Gender in 2008

Marriage Married People vote Republican Singles vote Democratic

Marital Status

Decline of Security Moms

Issue voting in 2008 Only 1 issue really mattered

Issue voting Can be very difficult Candidates try to avoid taking issue stands Economic issues are easy to vote upon

Most Important Issues

The Economy The events of 9/14

Economics Retrospective voting Prospective voting

Economics

Retrospective voting on Bush Bush is Unpopular

McCain Vs. Bush In the best position of any Republican to run against Bush In reality no way to distance himself from Bush

The Third Term

The War in Iraq No longer the salient Issue of the election Good news from Iraq did not change people’s minds Obama could claim opposition from day 1

Iraq

Health Care Not as important as you might think (9% most important problem) People are worried, but don’t specify policy

Energy Policy One of the reasons McCain goes with Palin Never panned out as an issue Cheap oil throughout the fall

Drilling

Terrorism The only Issue where McCain beats Obama The problem for McCain is that no one cared

Terrorism

Immigration No One cared Neither candidate had anything to gain by raising the issue