“And see this ring right here, Jimmy?... That’s another time the old fellow miraculously survived some big forest fire.” ENFA/INSEA FORESTRY…..

Global ForAg Model FASOM Regional Farm Type Model AROPAj Farm Model EFEM-DNDC Stand level Model PICUS Regional Forest Model EURO - FOR Model for GHG Response to Management EPIC Common Database and Standards Common Database and Data Structure Harmonized System Boundaries IPCC GPG and /or FGA Accounting Consistent Baseline Assumptions Joint Catalogue of GHG Mitigation Measures Uniform Validation Criteria Agreed Sustainability Constraints Common IT Standards Standard Scenario Assumptions and Story Lines Joint Vision INTEGRATED POLICY FRAMEWORK All Partners

Basic Modeling Processing Markets Feed Mixing Other Resources Grazing Labor Pasture Land Natl. Inputs Forestland Water Livestock Production Crop Production Export Domestic Demand Import Biofuel/GHG Demand Forest Production Cropland

Global ForAg Model FASOM Regional Farm Type Model AROPAj Farm Model EFEM-DNDC Stand level Model PICUS Regional Forest Model EURO - FOR Model for GHG Response to Management EPIC Common Database and Standards Common Database and Data Structure Harmonized System Boundaries IPCC GPG and /or FGA Accounting Consistent Baseline Assumptions Joint Catalogue of GHG Mitigation Measures Uniform Validation Criteria Agreed Sustainability Constraints Common IT Standards Standard Scenario Assumptions and Story Lines Joint Vision INTEGRATED POLICY FRAMEWORK All Partners

PICUS 2.0

Global ForAg Model FASOM Regional Farm Type Model AROPAj Farm Model EFEM-DNDC Stand level Model PICUS Regional Forest Model OSCAR Model for GHG Response to Management EPIC Common Database and Standards Common Database and Data Structure Harmonized System Boundaries IPCC GPG and /or FGA Accounting Consistent Baseline Assumptions Joint Catalogue of GHG Mitigation Measures Uniform Validation Criteria Agreed Sustainability Constraints Common IT Standards Standard Scenario Assumptions and Story Lines Joint Vision INTEGRATED POLICY FRAMEWORK All Partners

OSCAR links Link to FASOM Dynamic PE of ForAg OSCAR Forest Production Tree Growth Mortality Effects of management -thinning Data Issues Region or Grid DIMA Economic Downscaling

Forestry modeling framework Supply: W4E Wood4ForInd C storage (soil, biomass) LUC Alternatives: C storage Wood Energy management: (harvest, thinning, species) potential NPP Initial state forest and soil climate FASOM model -economic optimization of land use OSKAR model -forestry scenarios NPP model management costs

OSCAR model output for a grid cell areasize (m 2 ) BiomassManagement scenario and predicted production (wood, carbon storage, energy) 1A1A1 B1B1 m1 p1m2 p3m3 p3m4 p4... 1A1A1 B2B The HRU is divided in biomass classes depending on the initial state of the forest in terms of biomass and species Each area of similar biomass and species is modeled as a single forest stand A number of management scenarios is simulated for each forest area and class

Density and stand development Thinning changes the density initially but also the development with time After thinning the density approaches full density (self-thinning limit) growth thinning self-thinning biomass soil carbon mortality decomposition CO 2 density

Forest growth Potential NPP controls growth rate and equilibrium biomass

Example: Management Scenario 20% 70% 0%

Biomass Chain – Methanol (Populus et al.)  Biomass Gasification Plants of variable size  Geographically explicit supply  Engineering cost calculations  In cooperation with LTU, BoKu

Example with 5 biofuel plants Cars Fuel (MW) Bio (ODT/yea r) E

Cost in €/GJ MEOH

Cost in € / l MEOH

OSCAR links Link to FASOM Dynamic PE of ForAg OSCAR Forest Production Tree Growth Mortality Effects of management -thinning Data Issues Region or Grid DIMA Economic Downscaling

DIMA_Global  Down-scaling Model  Exogenous Prices Outputs (B4E, Timber, Carbon) Inputs (Land, Labor, Capital/Technology)

Land Use Change until 2100 for B1 Intensity map: (affected) ha x C-uptake Existing forest Afforestation Deforestation

Spatial Distribution of GDP  Important inputs to the spatially explicit forestry and regional agricultural model  Necessary information for vulnerability, adaptation and impact assessment

Bioenergy Supply for A2 (Price < 6$/GJ)

Outlook  First Data Supplied to FASOM  Constant Check of Species Calibration  Resource data appraisal and downscaling  Go Global with FASOM4WOOD  More Chains (FT Diesel, DME, H2, CCS…)  Disturbances & Implement rules from Stochastic calculus.