Project Management Technique By: Penny Leahy Jackie Holohan

S cope the Model –Defining the Problem, Objectives B aseline Current Process –Data Collection I nvestigate Model Concept –Inputs, Assumptions, Entity Flow C reate the model –Locations, Entities, Path Networks, Processing C ontrol & Verify Model Results –Sample Problem to Solve –Verification & Validation

Scope the Model Today projects developed in Information Technology are often Ê Over BudgetË Not Delivered on Time Project Leaders and Managers are not properly evaluating time requirements and costs for projects before making commitments to customers or upper management. Develop a tool to be used by project leaders, team members and upper management to estimate the amount of time & cost to complete a project in Information Technology.

Current Process ScopeBaselineInvestigateCreateControl Checkpoint 1Checkpoint 2Checkpoint 3Checkpoint 4Checkpoint 5 SBIC C Project Management Technique (PMT) Process Flow Project Leaders and team members complete project tasks at each phase. Checkpoint review meetings are held after each phase to ensure the project is on the right track. Checkpoint 5 represents project completion.

Current Process - Project Tasks Scope Investigate Create Control Baseline

Current Process - Data Collection Time data was collected for each of the project tasks through surveying 18 project leaders.  How long did it take to complete each project task most of the time?  What is the maximum time to complete each project task?  What is the minimum time to complete each project task? Based on your team's experience level: Sample Data MODE MAX MIN Triangular Distribution Service Times

Investigate - Model Inputs Input Factor = Numerical Value 1-9 An Input Factor is used to specify what type of project you’d like to analyze using the simulation model.

Investigate - Assumptions  There is a 15 minute break between project tasks.  There will be no "side-projects".  The work week is 40 hours per week.  The model is based on a 50 week-year, working 5 days per week.  The frequency of the projects can be adjusted as needed by the user.  The model output is in time, but can easily be converted to cost.  This service time for the checkpoint meeting is fit as a triangular distribution model {t(.5,1,1.5)}.

Investigate - Entity Flow Common Tasks: C.1 C.2 C.3 C.4 C.5 C.6 C.7 Checkpoint Reviews : 1 Scope S.3 C.1, C.2 ENTER S.4S.5 S.2 S.1 Baseline 1 C.3, C.4, C.1 2 B.1 Investigate 3 C.3, C.4 2 C.5, C.1, C.6, C.7 I.1 Create C.3 3 C.6, C.5, C.7 4 Cr.2 Cr.1 Control C.2, C.7 C.3 4 EXIT Co.2 Co.3 Co.1 Common Tasks: C.1 C.2 C.3 C.4 C.5 C.6 C.7 Checkpoint Reviews :

Investigate - Entity Flow in ProModel Locations - Project Tasks Entity - Project team member(s) Locations - Project Tasks Entity - Project team member(s)

Create the Model Locations Each project task set up with triangular service times. Entity 1 project team member or a group of team members. Path Networks Paths set up from project task to the next project task (serial processing). Arrivals Enter constant number of projects to complete per model run. Processing If…then…else statements set up to handle input factor.

A new Information Technology enhancement has been requested by one of the key customers. The project entails changing the quoting and ordering software package to include one of the new products just released. The IT project manager has several options in planning for this enhancement request. The maximum amount of time allowed to complete this project is 6 months. Control - Sample Problem

Scope down the request to be a series of 3 small projects with low experience levels on the team. New employees cost $40,000 per person year. The team only would have 2 people on the team. Deliver the request as 1 medium project using moderately experienced people on the team. The team would have 3 people on the team. Moderately experienced people cost $65,000 per person year. Combine the enhancement with the large project currently in progress with highly experienced personnel. These employees cost $90,000 per person year. This project will have 5 people on the team.

Control - Sample Problem Results  No significant difference between Scenario 1 and Scenario 2. (T-test performed; p-value =.83)  Scenario 3 costs about twice as much ($26K more) AND will take 8 months; BUT the business will gain market share and sales.  If the benefit gained exceeds $26K, Scenario 3 is recommended if the customer is willing to wait an extra 2 months.  If the customer is not willing to wait an extra 2 months for the extra benefits, either Scenario 1 or Scenario 2 are recommended. Recommendations

Control - Validate Model Verification Used to remove program bugs from the model. 2 bugs found through structured walk through exercise.  A task was not connected in path network; no output.  Output should be based on hours; it gave minutes. Validation 3 projects validated T-test completed showing 2 projects were represented well by the model. 1 project used wrong input factor; model was not represented of real world.

Based on the data gathered from a GE IT department, the output was validated. In some instances, the output may vary from actual data gathered from the population because of è Assignment of an incorrect input factor Model can be customized for other applications. Conclusion Simulation models can be used to predict the time and cost of projects as long as the data used to create the model is based on the application being studied.