North-South Migration Circulation Frequent movers between Sweden and the Global South Research project based on earlier studies of return migration in US-Mexican and Swedish-Chilean context Qualitative studies showed that return migration was not definitive In both cases tendencies towards migration circulation

Transnational citizens or circulating semi- proletarians? The emerging field of research on transnational migration Qualitative work with theoretical contributions In what contexts is transnationalism being formed? Interest in examining the larger picture of migration circulation

Research questions Is migration circulation a large and growing share of North-South migration? What are the characteristics of migration circulators (gender, country of birth/destination, age) Does Swedish citizenship lead to circulation? Are circulators more likely to be in the high- end and low-end labour market hierarchy (education and income)?

Data Longitudinal register data covering immigration and emigration between from 1968 to Sampling procedure 1.Select all individuals being registered in Sweden Select all individuals born in any of the five regions: a) America (except the USA & Canada); b) Northern Africa & the Middle East; c) Africa; d) Iran & Iraq; e) Asia, Turkey & Oceania (except Japan, Australia, and New Zeeland)  ca people

Three groups of analysis people  1.Circular migrants (three migration events): 1) immigrated to Sweden, 2) emigrated to any foreign country, 3) immigrated to Sweden ( people – 3.5%) 2.Double circular migrants (≥ 5 migration events): two or more rounds of circular migration (1 100 people – 0.3%) 3.Stayers: immigrated to Sweden before 2002 and are not observed as emigrants or re-immigrants in the registers ( people)

CharacteristicsCircular migrants Double circular migrants StayersSwedish population Men/Women (%)54/4658/4250/50 Age (Men/Women, average, years)41/3844/4034/3441/41 Married (%) University education (≥3 years, %) Income from work (average, SEK) Income from self-employment Early retirement pension Unemployment benefits Study allowances Parents’ allowance Sum social benefits* Disposable income of the household * This variable is the sum of disability pension (handikappersättning), social allowance socialbidrag), occupational injury annuity (arbetsskadelivränta), and income from occupational injury, rehabilitation and illness (inkomst föranledd av sjukdom, arbetsskada och rehabilitering).

Estimation results Circular migrants versus Stayers Men have higher probability of being circular migrants Having Swedish citizenship increases the likelihood of being a circular migrant Circular migrants are more likely to be older, non- married and having a Latin American country of birth The probability of being a circular migrant increases by higher education. Low-income earners (<150’ SEK/year) are more likely to be circular migrants. High-income earners (>300’ SEK/year) are not more likely to be circular migrants.

Conclusions Selective feminisation of circular migration (Latin America and Asia). Swedish citizenship enables circulation (Exception in the Latin American case due to Swedish return policy towards Chilean citizens)

Conclusions Low percentage of North-South migrants are circulators (3.5%) Actual mobility and transnational links may be more important than the registered migrants But the phenomenon seems to be highly limited and restricted

Migration circulation is associated with high education and low income Vicious circle of exclusion from Swedish labour market and continued migration Double circulation aggravates these problems Not individual problem of qualification Structural problem of discrimination Lose-lose-lose rather than win-win-win? Conclusions

Region of originCircular migrantsDouble circular migrants Circulation to the region of origin (%) Other most frequent destinati on (region, %) Circulation to the region of origin (%) Other most frequent destinati on (region, %) Latin America69Southern Europe (4.6%) 71Southern Europe (5.3%) Northern Africa & The Middle East 60Central Europe (8.3%) 63Denmark (6.2%) Africa43Central Europe (13.3%) 46Central Europe (14%) Iran & Iraq31USA & Canada (16.6%) 33USA & Canada (16.2%) Asia, Turkey & Oceania 49Central Europe (9.3%) 46Denmark (9.9%)

Circular migrants/StayersDouble circular migrants/Stayers Circular migrants/Double circular migrants Variable CoefficientSignCoefficientSignCoefficientSign University (≥3 y) Compulsory school High-income earner (>300’) Low-income earner (<150’) Born Latin America Born Northern Africa Born Africa Born Iran/Iraq Woman Age Marriage Swedish citizen Early retirement pension Study allowances Parents’ allowance Sum social benefits Constant LOG-L N

Region of origin Circular migrants Double circular migrants Stayers Numbers% % % Latin America Northern Africa & The Middle East Africa Iran & Iraq Asia, Turkey & Oceania Total

Estimation results Double circular migrants versus Stayers: The results of the analysis are similar to the previous analysis. Circular migrants versus Double circular migrants: Strong resemblance between circular migrants and double circular migrants – insignificant parameter estimates.