Climate change and Australian Farming Systems Peter Hayman SARDI and Deirdre Lemerle CSU, Wagga

Climate Change and Farming Systems High level of interest from contributed papers & posters to CCRSPI conference Survey for Primary Industries Adaptation Research Network (PIARN) GRDC review of grains RD&E – referred to “farming systems” 94 times

The study of farming systems in Australia has benefited from… Hard systems thinking from ecology Hard systems thinking from management science and operations research Soft systems thinking from sociology

Different views of climate change and farming systems a biophysical ecosystem processing materials, a business or production system generating income, a family farm integrated into the wider rural community.

Nemani et al 2003 Science (6 June 03) Climate is central to understanding of natural and managed systems

Ryan et al 2010

Is this drought or aridity; drought or drying; variability or change; cycle or shift.

Research on farming systems Level of study (farming systems)

Passioura 1979 Meaning n+1 (Landscapes & communities) Level of study (farming systems) Explanation n-1 (crop and animal physiology, soil, weed science, plant pathology, entomology, climate science)

Minnipa Orroroo Increasing farm size changing rural communities

Passioura 1979 Meaning (Landscapes & communities) Level of study ( farming systems ) Explanation (crop and animal physiology, soil, weed science, plant pathology, entomology, climate science)

Five Questions at the farming systems level 1) What are the climate change projections for my farming region? 2) What are the impacts of these changes? 3) What can be done to adapt ? 4) What are the risks and opportunities for my farm from policies to reduce emissions 5) How can I measure and manage emissions on my farm CCRSPI 2008

1) What are the climate change projections for my farming region? Predictions are not instructions that people simply follow to make better decisions. They are pieces of an intricate puzzle that may sometimes contribute to improved decisions. Daniel Sarewitz. Nature 463: 2010 Learn from failure of predicting earthquakes (robust buildings) as well as success of predicting cyclones.

Lyndoch Nurioopta Eden Valley N

Thinking about future climates Climate change projections from GCMS Sensitivity analysis: 1,1.5, 2 degrees warming; 5%, 10%, 20% rainfall decline

April to October rainfall

Thinking about future climates Climate change projections from GCMS Sensitivity analysis: 1,1.5, 2 degrees warming; 5%, 10%, 20% rainfall decline Temporal analogues – eg drought Spatial analogues – study a warmer & drier site

Ryan et al 2010

Five Questions at the farming systems level 2) What are the impacts of these changes? The same climate state can have very different impacts. Light soils vs heavy soils, sheep vs livestock, olives vs citrus.

Garnault: costs of climate change Type 1 – Direct costs –lower crop yield Type 2 – Indirect costs (eg tourism) – impact of dropping break crops Type 3 – Risk & insurance costs – not sowing due to fear of heat event Type 4 – Non market impacts – (eg species loss), changes to rural communities, food sovereignty.

Five Questions at the farming systems level 3) What can be done to adapt ? Martin and Parry (1988) – stop just doing impact studies Beyond the damage report Recognise just how adaptive Australian agriculture – especially as measured by decades

The challenge of “additionality” in adaptation.

Howden et al 2010

Sep 2000

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Sep 2006

Five Questions at the farming systems level 1) What are the climate change projections for my farming region? 2) What are the impacts of these changes? 3) What can be done to adapt ? 4) What are the risks and opportunities for my farm from policies to reduce emissions 5) How can I measure and manage emissions on my farm

Garnaut 2010 ( Aust J Ag & Res Ec ) Agriculture will suffer from unmitigated climate change like the Australian economy as a whole, but more so, agriculture would be likely to face significant costs that were not balanced by benefits in the early stages of an Australian mitigation regime.

Different views of climate change and farming systems a biophysical ecosystem processing materials, a business or production system generating income, a family farm integrated into the wider rural community.

What destroyed the sand castle ? The wave or tide ? What can we learn from the wave about future resilience and vulnerability ?

Source: Bureau of Meteorology

Weather – Season – Climate change We cannot reliably remember climate because memory generates meaning—not statistics…. our lives lurch between expectation and event, between the idea of climate and the reality of weather. Sherratt (2005)