1 Issue: Society Depends on Ecosystem Modeling to Predict Threats and Minimize Risk

2 Background: Broad Scale of Application Days Months Seasons Years Weeks Global Regional Local Larval Pathways Trajectory-Based Forecasts Beach Advisories Shellfish Closures Hypoxia Formation Habitat Migration Disease Transmission Model-Based Scenario-Based Forecasts Invasive Spread Species Abundance Resource Recovery Exposure Risk Ecosystem Change Climate Impacts Spill Response Spatial Extent of Forecast Larval Pathways Trajectory –Based Forecasts Beach Advisories Shellfish Closures Hypoxia Formation Habitat Migration Disease Transmission Model-Based Ecosystem Forecasts Scenario-Based Forecasts and Projections Invasive Spread Species Abundance Resource Recovery Exposure Risk Ecosystem Change Climate Impacts Spill Response Frequency of Forecast Building a “seamless suite” of model-based products and services over a backbone of existing infrastructure

3 Global scale: Coral bleaching Ocean carbon chemistry Pelagic habitat for protected species Migration patterns of tuna & whales Coccolithophore blooms Diverse Investments and Activities Local scale: Coral reef recovery after disturbance Spill movement & restoration Water quantity & quality Beach closures Shellfish toxicity Larval transport & survival Efficacy of MPAs Probability of Sea nettles Habitat restoration Regional scale: HABs Hypoxia Ice extent Stream flow & effects on diadromous spp Regional productivity dynamics Regional stock assessments Coastal ecosystem effects of climate change Multiple stressors of coral reefs Invasive species

4 Satellite: ocean color Analysts HAB BulletinPublic Information Forecasted Winds & Weather In situ samples Management Actions Models Early warning system for algal blooms established –Operational off Florida coast since 2004 Integrated observations, measurements, and analysis Predicts initiation, movement and landfall of harmful algal blooms on coastal areas Rapid dissemination to managers and the public Societal Benefit –95% of all bulletins used to guide management action eg., sampling, mitigation, public information Existing Capabilities Example Harmful Algal Bloom Bulletin Oceanography & Hydrology

5 Observations and Data Environmental Modeling Research Ecological Prediction & Decision Support Tools Products & Services, Education & Training for Users & Stakeholders Framework and Operations Comprehensive, coordinated, systematic, and sustained approach to develop, deliver, improve, operate, and maintain ecological forecasts, scenarios and projections

6 Discussion: EFS National Benefits and Impacts Desired EFS Outcomes: –Protected, preserved and restored biodiversity and ecosystem services, including water quality –Realized sustained economic value from ecosystem services –Increased human and ocean and ecosystem health –Weather and water hazard mitigation –Climate adaptation and stabilization

7 Future Regional Capabilities Integrated monitoring & observations Regional earth system modeling framework and research Decision support End-to-end early warning Scenario based forecasting and climate projections