International Energy Workshop June 22-24, 2004 THE INTEGRTED NATIONAL ENERGY PLANNING IN IRAN A PROPOSED ENERGY MASTER PLAN Alimorad sharifi (PhD) Department.

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Presentation transcript:

International Energy Workshop June 22-24, 2004 THE INTEGRTED NATIONAL ENERGY PLANNING IN IRAN A PROPOSED ENERGY MASTER PLAN Alimorad sharifi (PhD) Department of Economics Isfahan University Isfahan-Iran Mehdi Sadeghi (PhD) Department of Economics Imam Sadiq University Tehran-Iran International Energy Workshop June 2004, IEA, Paris, FRANCE

International Energy Workshop June 22-24, 2004

International Energy Workshop June 22-24, 2004

International Energy Workshop June 22-24, 2004

International Energy Workshop June 22-24, 2004

International Energy Workshop June 22-24, 2004 The Characteristics of Integrated National Energy Planning in Iran  Planning horizons and uncertainty  Integration of Top-Down and Bottom-Up approaches  Integration of national and regional approaches  Autonomous Energy Efficiency Improvement (AEEI)  Dual-rate discounting

International Energy Workshop June 22-24, 2004 The structure of Energy master plan model

International Energy Workshop June 22-24, 2004 Population Module Demographic data Urban population growth rate Rural population growth rate Immigration ““ Labor supply ““ Urban and rural household size

International Energy Workshop June 22-24, 2004 Macro Module Macroeconomic Variables Alternative economic growth cases GDP growth rate Capital-output ratio Social discount rate Substitution elasticities Price indices and deflators

International Energy Workshop June 22-24, 2004 Energy Demand Model Energy Demand Model Energy demand projections End-use growth rate Price elasticities Income elasticities Energy efficiencies Demand curves Macroeconomic variables Demographic data Energy use intensities Appliance stock efficiencies Unit energy consumption

International Energy Workshop June 22-24, 2004 Energy Supply Model Installed Capacities data Energy production data Capital and operation costs Conversion efficiencies Environmental taxes (and subsidies) Operation parameters Optimal capacity expansions Optimal investments Energy production projections Evaluation of energy technologies Allocative efficiencies Energy carriers pricing

International Energy Workshop June 22-24, 2004 Energy Pricing Model Energy Pricing Model Energy demand data Energy supply data LRMC prices of energy carriers Gini coefficient Taxes (and subsidies) Social costs of energy Adjusted marginal costs

International Energy Workshop June 22-24, 2004 Geographical Information System Module GIS Module Impact map analysis Regional energy resources Renewable energy resources Land-use data Emissions data Population growth rate Meteoclimatic data

International Energy Workshop June 22-24, 2004 Environment Module Environment Module Social costs of energy Adjusted energy supplies Emissions trading permit GIS information sets Emissions factors Environmental taxes

International Energy Workshop June 22-24, 2004 International Trade Module International Trade Module Energy carriers trade flow WTO impact analysis Kyoto impact analysis Domestic energy carriers production Environmental tax rates OPEC production quotas World oil price

International Energy Workshop June 22-24, 2004 Energy Restructuring Module Energy Restructuring Module Regulatory impacts on energy prices Marginal cost prices of energy carriers Institutional requirements Contracts classifications

International Energy Workshop June 22-24, 2004