The Use of Models in Emergency Management Presented By: Armond T. Mascelli Vice President, Operations Disaster Services

Mission of the American Red Cross ‘The American Red Cross, a humanitarian organization led by volunteers and guided by its Congressional Charter and the Fundamental Principles of the International Red Cross Movement, will provide relief to victims of disasters and help people prevent, prepare for, and respond to emergencies.’

International Red Cross Movement I.International Committee of the Red Cross - Geneva Conventions II. Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies - Disaster Response III.National Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies Societies

Principles of the International Red Cross Movement HumanityAssistance ImpartialityNo discrimination NeutralityNon-partisan IndependenceAutonomy Volunteer ServiceNo gain UnityOne Society per Country UniversalityEqual Status of all Societies

American Red Cross  1+ Million Volunteers & 35,000 Paid Staff  Chapters – 707  Divisions – 10  Services to the Armed Forces Units – 100  Blood Regions – 35  Partnerships – Government and Non-Governmental Organizations

Primary Lines of Service  Biomedical Services  Service to the Armed Forces  Health & Safety Services  International Services  Disaster Services

Disaster Services When Disasters Occur-  Feeding, sheltering  Distribution of emergency supplies  One-on-one casework/assistance  Health Services  Mental Health Services  Family Connectedness  Blood and blood products  Recovery and capacity building All Red Cross Disaster Assistance is Free!

Disaster Services Business Plan Goals  Goal 1: Deliver service effectively and efficiently Reduce service delivery costs while enhancing constituent satisfaction.  Goal 2: Make chapters stronger Align national, state, and local resources to strengthen chapter programs.  Goal 3: Partner effectively and lead the sector Expand our role in disaster relief as a principle convener of agencies and communities nationally and locally.  Goal 4: Make the Red Cross the best place to work or volunteer Attract and retain the highest caliber of disaster expertise.

Distributing Supplies Florida Tornadoes

Health Services New Jersey Floods

Disaster Mental Health New Jersey Floods

Sheltering Ohio Floods

Mobile Feeding Ohio Floods

Family Connectedness Registration Page

Partnerships

Disasters are Physical, Political and Emotional Events

Disasters are complex events that require focused actions

The Term Disaster is a collective noun covering a range of very different events - Emergency -Disaster -Complex Disaster -Catastrophic Event

Disasters are complex, dynamic events - The limitations of training and exercises Future repeat disasters are not the recurrence of past events - New Disaster Agents - Shifting risk profile (US Coastline) - Demographics - Major and catastrophic events Hurricane Hugo (1989) Hurricane Andrew (1992) Hurricane George (1999) Hurricane Katrina (2004) Hurricane Rita (2007) Flu vs 2009 Flu Pandemic

- Ongoing linkage between risk assessment and risk management - The Roman God Janis

Emergency Management Models -Prediction Models -Process Models

The Application of Expert Systems to Emergency Management

In Disaster Response there are a lot of variables and they tend to vary a lot

Prediction Models - Agent characteristics and behavior -Scope and magnitude -Onset -Impact/vulnerabilities -Duration Natural Disasters Hazardous Materials Industrial Accidents Acts of Terrorism

Process Models I. Simplify complex events - Critical Elements - Background noise II. Better understand how an event will evolve - Anticipate changing requirements III. Essential for quantifying disaster events - Performance IV. Establish a common base for understanding V. Useful in explaining future disasters and outcomes to non-experts

Sequence Process Models Basic - Pre-Event - Disaster - Post Disaster Phases of Stages [Prevention] Preparedness [Readiness] Response Recovery Mitigation

Internal Function Process Models Functions Initiation/mobilization Integration Production Demobilization Focus Capability Capacity Decision Points Manpower, materials, equipment, expertise, timeliness

Models & Emergency Management Tools I. Hazardous Materials Dispersion - Plant and Transportation accidents - Nuclear Power Plant incidents 10 mile EPZ II. N1H1 Pandemic Hurricane Evacuation Models - National Hurricane Center’s 5 movement models - Area evacuation Models - Behavior - Transportation & Clearance

Models & Emergency Management Tools (Con’t) III. Hazus - Earthquake - Hurricane - Flood IV. Homeland Security 15 Planning Scenarios

The Future  New/enhanced Disaster Agents  Larger events  Global urbanization  Reliance on technology  Media  Rising expectations  Just in time economy