June 22, 2004 NOAA’s NWS Volcanic Ash Program: Current Status and Plans for the Future Chris Strager NWS Alaska Region HQ

OVERVIEW BACKGROUND THE PROGRAM TODAY FUTURE CHALLENGES

“Those that fail to learn from history, are doomed to repeat it.” –Sir Winston Churchill

BACKGROUND “Roots” of NWS Volcanic Ash Program traced back to 1980 eruption of Mt. St. Helens Ash plume reached 90,000 feet in 30 minutes Circled the globe in two weeks Over 1,000 commercial flights cancelled

Other significant volcanic eruptions helped shape global volcanic ash program: –Galunggung Volcano, Indonesia (1982) Two passenger jets heavily damaged Result: ICAO’s International Airways Volcano Watch –Mt. Pinatubo, Philippines (1991) Airports covered with up to 6 inches of ash 20 commercial jets damaged

Meanwhile, in Alaska… Mt. Redoubt ( ) –KLM incident; over $80M in damages Mt. Spurr (1992) –Ashfall in Anchorage closed airport for several days –Ash cloud disrupted operations across AK, Canada, US

That was nature’s sequence of volcanic ash events…what about the NWS? 1995: NWS Alaska Aviation Weather Unit (AAWU) formed 1997: ICAO established nine worldwide Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers (VAACs) –Anchorage AK (managed by AAWU) –Washington DC (joint effort between NESDIS/NWS) 1998: Responsibility for managing NWS Volcanic Ash Program transferred to NWS Alaska Region. –Operational knowledge –Developed successful coordination with other agencies

NWS VOLCANIC ASH PROGRAM STRUCTURE - TODAY Program Management: NWS Alaska Region 2 VAACs: Anchorage and Washington (joint effort with NESDIS) 4 MWOs: AAWU, Aviation Weather Center, Honolulu and Guam WFOs –Issue Volcanic Ash SIGMETs Anchorage Center Weather Service Unit (CWSU) –Works with FAA’s Air Route Traffic Control Center

Anchorage FIR 2.4 million sq miles/5.18 sq kms A few words about the CWSU…

ZAN CWSU support to major jet routes across the Pacific

Meteorological Impact Statement (MIS) CWSU provides first information to controllers immediately following eruption detection Work closely with Anchorage VAAC and Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO)

NWS VOLCANIC ASH PROGRAM CHARTER Original goals of NWS Volcanic Ash Program listed in Nov 1995 Volcano Management Plan, drafted by the NWS’ Alaska Region HQ: –Continue to build effective “operations-based” program –Coordination with other NOAA/NWS offices –Coordination with other national agencies –Establish international volcano program agreements –Continue research and training efforts

FUTURE CHALLENGES Aggressively pursue upgrades in remote sensing capabilities for NOAA/NWS VAACs, MWOs, CWSU –Present system relies on single-channel data –Significant improvements coming in near future Multi-channel/hyper-spectral sensors “Orders of magnitude” of more data –Requires downlink system to capture (and process) these large data sets –View new data on NWS operational workstations

FUTURE CHALLENGES “5-minute requirement” –5 minutes from detection to warning –Stated by customer…must strive to meet this Modernize text products to graphics –“Weather in Cockpit” –Graphical VA SIGMETs, advisories –Work closely with international community to ensure these formats work for all

FUTURE CHALLENGES (cont) “International Consistency” –Stay current with research, operational procedures –Break down language barriers between VAACs Training (both NWS and external customers) –Volcanic ash forecasting still relatively new –Operational forecasters must stay current with new monitoring, forecasting techniques

FUTURE CHALLENGES (cont) Transform current research into operational forecasting tools/techniques Continued collaboration with Federal, private, international partners

PARTNERS (partial listing!) Within NOAA: –NESDIS (Washington VAAC, remote sensing) –Forecast Systems Laboratory (FSL) Volcanic Ash Coordination Tool (VACT) –Air Research Laboratory (Modeling) –Aviation Weather Center (Graphics) US Geological Survey/AVO –Close operational relationship with VAAC and CWSU –Partners in VACT development FAA/ICAO Other worldwide VAACs Aviation Customers 17

NOAA’s NWS Volcanic Ash Program: Current Status and Plans for the Future Questions?