New Local Climate Outlook Products from the NWS Andrea Bair NOAA/NWS Western Region Headquarters Climate Services Program Manager

Outline  Introduce the new Local 3-Month Temperature Outlook (L3MTO)  Visit the new website  Product Benefits  Product Limitations  Future Local Climate Products

L3MTO Facts  The NWS is downscaling/transforming Climate Prediction Center’s (CPC) large scale 3-month temperature outlooks to specific station outlooks  The L3MTO is: Produced centrally at CPC Disseminated via local WFO climate websites Released simultaneously with CPC’s 3-month outlook product suite (3 rd Thursday every month) Produced for approximately 10 sites per WFO, or about 1150 sites nationwide – can potentially increase to ~4,000 sites

Requirements and Actions for Developing the Product  Scientifically Sound reliable data source the simplest forecasting procedure independent data used in forecast tests sufficiently testing the forecast process  Operationally Efficient Efficient production procedure Appropriate training Outreach support and materials  Customer Friendly Wide variety of components Helpful text and explanations for interpretation

How the Product was Developed CD data Station data Regression Analysis Trend Significance Station Forecast Solution Verification filter Annual routine: CPC CD forecast Mean and St. Dev. Monthly routine: No Significant? Bivariate statistics Regression Coefficients Intercept Adjustment Yes Sufficient Score? Forecast data Distribution and Display Yes Climatology Data No y = mx + b (where m = slope and b = y-intercept) Graph Courtesy of Nicole Kempf

Outlook Evaluation  Access to the outlook evaluation is available on every display of the L3MTO  This tool can be used for both the national and the local 3-month temperature outlooks  Evaluation statistics can be computed for any combination of 3-month periods and/or years during 1994 to present (2003)  Allows the user to select different types of skill scores

Questions and Feedback  The “Questions and Feedback” tab links users to an online form to provide comments  User feedback is important, as this product will be evolving based on this feedback.

The L3MTO is now Available on all WFO Websites

L3MTO Benefits  More spatial detail – higher resolution outlooks  The L3TMO suite provides multiple presentation formats to accommodate a wide range of users  Includes helpful resources for interpretation  Available locally, on all WFO webpages; higher visibility

L3MTO Limitations  Does not provide detail about the month-to- month or day-to-day variability  It’s a probabilistic forecast more challenging to explain The probability of an exact temperature occurring is nearly zero!  Additional local information may be needed to supplement the product.  Because this product is an extension of the national 3-month outlook to the local level, it will naturally inherit the national product’s skill

What About Precipitation?  Precipitation is a much more complicated element to downscale  The precipitation downscaling methodology is under development  The product’s webpage design will be identical to the L3MTO design  Implementation is included in the long term planning for future local climate products

ENSO Based Composites  Initially will include temperature and precipitation  Eventually other parameters will be added – WFOs will choose  ENSO based composites will be combined with CPC’s Nino 3.4 SST forecast – if the results are significant, then a forecast will accompany the L3MTO.

Thank You!! Please visit any WFO website to view these new products.