Ozone in Colorado: Issues and Reduction Strategies Presentation to the Colorado Environmental Health Association October 2,

Presentation Overview NAAQS and Ozone Emission control measures Review of modeling results – Front Range and 4 Corners regions Evaluation of the Ozone Standard Moving forward 2

Overview of NAAQS and Ozone 3

NAAQS Overview EPA has established National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for 6 “criteria” pollutants Ozone Carbon monoxide Nitrogen dioxide Sulfur dioxide Particulates (PM10 and PM2.5) Lead NAAQS are health-based standards (primary) and welfare-based (secondary) NAAQS are periodically reviewed and revised 4

Stratospheric (Good!) -vs- Tropospheric (Bad!) Ozone

What is Ozone?

Ozone Overview Ozone is formed by the reactions of hydrocarbons and oxides of nitrogen in sunlight Ozone NAAQS originally established in 1971 – 1-hour level of 0.08 ppm Revised in 1979 – 1-hour level of 0.12 ppm – 3-year average of expected number of exceedances <= 1 Revised in 1997 – 8-hour standard of 0.08 ppm – Based on the 3-year average of the 4 th maximum Revised in 2008 – 8-hour standard of ppm – Based on the 3-year average of the 4 th maximum 7

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Review of the Emission Control Measures 9

Emission Reduction Measures Adopted for Ozone: RVP gasoline for the North Front Range region Condensate controls: – 48% Front Range system-wide adopted in 2004 – Gas Plants controls adopted in 2004 – 74% Front Range system-wide adopted in 2006 – 20 ton tank Statewide control adopted 2006 O&G dehydrator controls: – Front Range new and existing standards adopted in 2004 – Statewide new and existing standards adopted in 2006 Industrial engines (RICE): – Front Range new and existing engines standards adopted in 2004 – Statewide new/relocated engines standards adopted in 2006 I/M program improvements for the Denver Metro area

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New Emission Reduction Measures for Summer % control of condensate tanks – up from 75% in 2008 Auto ignitors for all new tanks and existing tanks > 50 tpy Electronic surveillance pilot program underway Pneumatic device retrofits completed Tighter VOC/NOx RACT requirements are in place for new stationary sources Additional fleet turn-over occurring Tighter I&M cut points implemented 12

Statewide Emission Control Programs in Place for Ozone Current VOC/NOx measures: – New vehicle standards and I/M in metro Denver area – New off-road vehicle/equipment standards – New gasoline/diesel fuel standards – New federal architectural/traffic/industrial and consumer products standards – Existing Colorado regulations for smaller and larger industrial and commercial facilities – Front Range and statewide O&G controls – tanks, dehydrators, new/existing engines – Gasoline station controls (Stage I vapor recovery) 13

Overview of Preliminary Front Range Region 2015/2020 Ozone Modeling 14

2010 Controlled NOx Emissions (DMA/NFR NAA) 15

2010 Controlled VOC Emissions (DMA/NFR NAA) 16

2006/2015/2020 Denver NAA 17

2015/2020 Base Case Ozone Projections 2020 RFNO = 79.1 ppb 2020 CHAT = 78.7 ppb 2020 NREL = 78.6 ppb 2020 FTCW = 76.4 ppb All other monitors achieve attainment in 2015/

Modeled Ozone Improvements from 2006 to

Modeled Ozone Improvements from 2006 to

Boundary conditions dominate – 70-95% on days analyzed For the Rocky Flats monitor, Denver metro sources are largest contributors – Non-Road, EGUs, On-Road sources most important For northern sites, these same sources contribute as well as oil and gas 21 Source Apportionment

RFNO July 29, 2006  APCA w/ BC 73.5 ppb ozone BCs (~70%) by far largest contributor DMA (~18 ppb) largest Source Region – Non-Road – EGU – On-Road  APCA w/o BC 22 Source Apportionment

“What If?” Sensitivity Tests 1.20% NOx reduction in NAA 2.20% NOx reduction in CO 3.20% NOx reduction in CO & 20% VOC in reduction NAA 4.20% NOx reduction in nation-wide & 20% VOC reduction in NAA 5.20% NOx reduction in western states 23

Ozone Reductions Sensitivity Tests For RFNO monitor: – 20% NOx Denver NAA (1)= -0.4 ppb – 20% NOx Colorado (2) = -0.2 ppb – 20% NOx CO/20% VOC NAA (3)= -0.8 ppb – 20% NOx All/20% VOC NAA (4)= -1.2 ppb – 20% NOx All (5)= -0.8 ppb – 20% VOC Denver NAA (3-2)= -0.6 ppb – 20% NOx outside Colorado (5-2)= -0.6 ppb 24

2020 Sensitivities - Conclusions Within NAA NOx and VOC about equally effective Regional and local NOx both effective FTCW brought into attainment in all sensitivity tests RFN, NREL and CHAT do not demonstrate attainment in any of the sensitivity tests (- 2 to -3 ppb needed at RFN) 25

Overview of Four Corners Region Ozone Modeling 26

27 Existing Power Plant Proposed Power Plant Oil or Gas Well Site

Ozone Monitoring Sites in the Four Corners Area 28

2005 and 2018 Base Case: Difference in 4 th Highest Daily Max 8-Hour Ozone 29

Oil and Gas Plus Power Generation Emissions Reduction Scenario - Ozone 30

EPA’s Current Evaluation of the Ozone Standard: Statewide Implications 31

Evaluation of the Ozone Standard EPA is re-considering the 75 ppb standard established in 2008 – EPA reviewing the adequacy of the 8-hour primary health standard – EPA may also comment on the need for a secondary welfare standard A proposal is to be released in December 2009 Any changes to be final in August

The Current 75 ppb Standard 33

A Possible 70 ppb Standard 34

A Possible 65 ppb Standard 35

Moving Forward: Ozone Planning Efforts 36

Moving Forward We have implemented numerous controls and performed complex technical analyses for ozone We have implemented numerous controls and performed complex technical analyses for ozone Now a new, more stringent health-based standard is taking effect Now a new, more stringent health-based standard is taking effect We are updating modeling and looking out to 2015 and 2020 We are updating modeling and looking out to 2015 and 2020 An “interim” ozone plan will be developed in 2010 An “interim” ozone plan will be developed in 2010 Another, more formal, ozone plan must be developed in 2012 and submitted to EPA in 2013 Another, more formal, ozone plan must be developed in 2012 and submitted to EPA in

Moving Forward: Ozone Planning Activities Underway  Additional scenarios that reduce emissions are under development  Large NOx sources  Fuels  VMT reductions Coordination is occurring with other ongoing initiatives - RH & RMNP 38

Questions? For further information, data and reports, please see:

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10/2/ Ozone lower in core urban areas due to scavenging.

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10/2/ Ozone higher at some sites in NW New Mexico.

Oil and Gas Plus Power Generation Emissions Reduction Scenario - Visibility Mesa Verde NP Mitigation Scenario 4 <--Best 20% Worst 20%--> <--Best 20% Haze Index 2018 baseline (dv) Change in Visibility in Deciviews 10/2/200948

Additional Sensitivity Analyses Inventory and model performance improvements Point Sources in NAA and state Fuel option in NAA VMT reduction in NAA 10/2/200949