ENSEMBLES RT4/RT5 Joint Meeting Paris, February 2005 Overview of Seasonal-to-Decadal (s2d) Activities during the Initial 18 Months Francisco J. Doblas Reyes European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

ENSEMBLES RT4/RT5 Joint Meeting Paris, February 2005 RT1 activities RT1: Development of the EPS Aim: assess best method to estimate model uncertainty. Estimates of model uncertainty using a new multi-model ensemble, a recently developed stochastic physics scheme (ECMWF and Met Office) and the perturbed parameters approach (Met Office with 2 different versions of HadCM3). Ocean initial conditions from ENACT and generation of new sets when possible. Common output archived in MARS (atm) and ECFS (ocean). Pre-production for with reduced start dates and completion for end Additional experiments to test the consistency of the predictions and the impact of the ensemble size.

ENSEMBLES RT4/RT5 Joint Meeting Paris, February 2005 Generalized ensemble approach Uncertainty initial conditions model formulation Estimation ensemble multi-model multi-model ensemble forecast system N models x M ensemble members

ENSEMBLES RT4/RT5 Joint Meeting Paris, February 2005 Generalized ensemble approach Uncertainty initial conditions model formulation Estimation ensemble perturbed parameters perturbed parameters ensemble N versions x M ensemble members

ENSEMBLES RT4/RT5 Joint Meeting Paris, February 2005 Generalized ensemble approach Uncertainty initial conditions model formulation Estimation ensemble with stochastic physics Ensemble with stochastic physics M ensemble members

ENSEMBLES RT4/RT5 Joint Meeting Paris, February 2005 Multi-model ensemble system Hindcast production period for: member ensembles ERA-40 atmosphere and soil initial conditions ENACT-based ocean initial conditions with SST and wind perturbations 2 seasonal,1 annual runs per year At least 2 multi-annual runs (1965 and 1994) Boundary forcings in forecast mode: GHGs, aerosols, solar forcing, etc. ENSEMBLES system: 7 coupled GCMs running at ECMWF

ENSEMBLES RT4/RT5 Joint Meeting Paris, February 2005 Multi-model ensemble system Feb 87 May 87 Aug 87 Nov 87 Feb models x 9 ensemble members 54 member multi-model ensemble

ENSEMBLES RT4/RT5 Joint Meeting Paris, February 2005 Multi-model ensemble system Feb 87 May 87 Aug 87 Nov 87 Feb 88...

ENSEMBLES RT4/RT5 Joint Meeting Paris, February 2005 Multi-model ensemble system Feb 87 May 87 Aug 87 Nov 87 Feb 88...

ENSEMBLES RT4/RT5 Joint Meeting Paris, February 2005 Multi-model ensemble system Feb 87 May 87 Aug 87 Nov 87 Feb member multi-model ensemble = 1 hindcast

ENSEMBLES RT4/RT5 Joint Meeting Paris, February 2005 RT2A activities RT2A: Global model engine Build on the RT1 experience. Starting in ~month 24: seasonal, annual and multi-annual integrations. New set of (ensemble) ocean initial conditions from ENACT and/or RT1. Common output (based on RT1 lists and scripts) archived in MARS and ECFS. Dissemination based on public data and OPenDAP servers. Production period times per year, multi-annual hindcasts with the perturbed- parameter approach (HadCM3 or HadGEM).

ENSEMBLES RT4/RT5 Joint Meeting Paris, February 2005 Multi-model ensemble system ENSEMBLES system: 5 coupled GCMs (4 running at ECMWF) Hindcast production period for: member ensembles ERA-40 atmosphere and soil initial conditions RT1-based ocean initial conditions 4 seasonal, 1 annual runs per year At least 1 multi-annual run every 5 years Boundary forcings in forecast mode: GHGs, aerosols, solar forcing, etc.

ENSEMBLES RT4/RT5 Joint Meeting Paris, February 2005 Data storage Archiving at ECMWF (seasonal to decadal) and M&D (decadal to centennial in CERA). Use of a common list of variables (minimum requirement) for atmosphere and ocean variables. Atmosphere (GRIB) in MARS and ocean (NetCDF) in ECFS. Need of an ENSEMBLES class for MARS. Scripts available for archiving and retrieval.

ENSEMBLES RT4/RT5 Joint Meeting Paris, February 2005 Data storage Global change integrations in CERA and PCMDI Seasonal to decadal in MARS and ECFS

ENSEMBLES RT4/RT5 Joint Meeting Paris, February 2005 Questions?