Political Investment: Remittances and Elections Angela O’Mahony University of British Columbia

Migrants as Economic and Political Actors Migration: 190 million migrants worldwide Migrants maintain ties with home countries Economic Engagement: Remittances ($167 bn) Political Engagement: –Persists over time –Actively courted by home country politicians Migrants’ economic influence  political influence?

How might remittances reflect a political logic? H 1 : Remittances increase in election years H 2 : Remittances increase more when the incumbent does not run H 3 : Election effect is negatively correlated with home country economic wealth H 4 : Election effect is negatively correlated with incidence of natural disasters H 5 : Election effect is positively correlated with home country economic growth

DV: Remittances as a % of GDP Sample: 109 countries, Model 1 Remittances as a % of GDP, lagged Migrant Stock, ln GDP per capita, ln GDP Growth Natural Disasters per capita High Income Country GDP Growth Migrant Stock GDP per capita Migrant Stock GDP Growth Constant R20.93 Observations1424

DV: Remittances as a % of GDP Sample: 109 countries, Model 1 Remittances as a % of GDP, lagged0.92(0.02)** Migrant Stock, ln GDP per capita, ln GDP Growth Natural Disasters per capita High Income Country GDP Growth Migrant Stock GDP per capita Migrant Stock GDP Growth Constant R20.93 Observations1424

DV: Remittances as a % of GDP Sample: 109 countries, Model 1 Remittances as a % of GDP, lagged0.92(0.02)** Migrant Stock, ln0.03(0.02)* GDP per capita, ln GDP Growth Natural Disasters per capita High Income Country GDP Growth Migrant Stock GDP per capita Migrant Stock GDP Growth Constant R20.93 Observations1424

DV: Remittances as a % of GDP Sample: 109 countries, Model 1 Remittances as a % of GDP, lagged0.92(0.02)** Migrant Stock, ln0.03(0.02)* GDP per capita, ln-0.23(0.04)** GDP Growth Natural Disasters per capita High Income Country GDP Growth Migrant Stock GDP per capita Migrant Stock GDP Growth Constant R20.93 Observations1424

DV: Remittances as a % of GDP Sample: 109 countries, Model 1 Remittances as a % of GDP, lagged0.92(0.02)** Migrant Stock, ln0.03(0.02)* GDP per capita, ln-0.23(0.04)** GDP Growth-0.03(0.01)** Natural Disasters per capita High Income Country GDP Growth Migrant Stock GDP per capita Migrant Stock GDP Growth Constant R20.93 Observations1424

DV: Remittances as a % of GDP Sample: 109 countries, Model 1 Remittances as a % of GDP, lagged0.92(0.02)** Migrant Stock, ln0.03(0.02)* GDP per capita, ln-0.23(0.04)** GDP Growth-0.03(0.01)** Natural Disasters per capita0.26(0.14)^ High Income Country GDP Growth Migrant Stock GDP per capita Migrant Stock GDP Growth Constant R20.93 Observations1424

DV: Remittances as a % of GDP Sample: 109 countries, Model 1 Remittances as a % of GDP, lagged0.92(0.02)** Migrant Stock, ln0.03(0.02)* GDP per capita, ln-0.23(0.04)** GDP Growth-0.03(0.01)** Natural Disasters per capita0.26(0.14)^ High Income Country GDP Growth-0.12(0.10) Migrant Stock GDP per capita Migrant Stock GDP Growth Constant R20.93 Observations1424

DV: Remittances as a % of GDP Sample: 109 countries, Model 1 Remittances as a % of GDP, lagged0.92(0.02)** Migrant Stock, ln0.03(0.02)* GDP per capita, ln-0.23(0.04)** GDP Growth-0.03(0.01)** Natural Disasters per capita0.26(0.14)^ High Income Country GDP Growth-0.12(0.10) Migrant Stock GDP per capita0.21(0.04)** Migrant Stock GDP Growth Constant R20.93 Observations1424

DV: Remittances as a % of GDP Sample: 109 countries, Model 1 Remittances as a % of GDP, lagged0.92(0.02)** Migrant Stock, ln0.03(0.02)* GDP per capita, ln-0.23(0.04)** GDP Growth-0.03(0.01)** Natural Disasters per capita0.26(0.14)^ High Income Country GDP Growth-0.12(0.10) Migrant Stock GDP per capita0.21(0.04)** Migrant Stock GDP Growth0.04(0.03) Constant R20.93 Observations1424

DV: Remittances as a % of GDP Sample: 109 countries, Model 1 Remittances as a % of GDP, lagged0.92(0.02)** Migrant Stock, ln0.03(0.02)* GDP per capita, ln-0.23(0.04)** GDP Growth-0.03(0.01)** Natural Disasters per capita0.26(0.14)^ High Income Country GDP Growth-0.12(0.10) Migrant Stock GDP per capita0.21(0.04)** Migrant Stock GDP Growth0.04(0.03) Constant0.11(0.30) R20.93 Observations1424

Model:23456 Election0.20* (0.11) Incumbent Runs Incumbent Does not Run Election x GDP per capita Election x Natural Disasters Election x GDP Growth

Model:23456 Election0.20* (0.11) Incumbent Runs0.09 (0.13) Incumbent0.30* Does not Run(0.15) Election x GDP per capita Election x Natural Disasters Election x GDP Growth

Model:23456 Election0.20*0.86^ (0.11)(0.60) Incumbent Runs0.09 (0.13) Incumbent0.30* Does not Run(0.15) Election x-0.09 GDP per capita(0.08) Election x Natural Disasters Election x GDP Growth

Model:23456 Election0.20*0.86^0.30** (0.11)(0.60)(0.12) Incumbent Runs0.09 (0.13) Incumbent0.30* Does not Run(0.15) Election x-0.09 GDP per capita(0.08) Election x-0.59^ Natural Disasters(0.43) Election x GDP Growth

Model:23456 Election0.20*0.86^0.30**0.05 (0.11)(0.60)(0.12)(0.16) Incumbent Runs0.09 (0.13) Incumbent0.30* Does not Run(0.15) Election x-0.09 GDP per capita(0.08) Election x-0.59^ Natural Disasters(0.43) Election x0.04 GDP Growth(0.03)

Conclusion Migrants remit more in election years But political remittances are context-specific Future Work Sub-national elections State response