Prof. Dr. Hans Rattinger Dipl.-Pol. Markus Steinbrecher FP6 CivicActive Voter turnout and civic participation in the EU

Prof. Dr. Hans Rattinger Dipl.-Pol. Markus Steinbrecher FP6 CivicActive Overview 1.Relevance of participation 2.Turnout in EP elections -Development since Comparison with NP elections -Types of voters -Multivariate analysis 3.Non-electoral participation in Europe -Frequencies -Dimensions of non-electoral participation -Multivariate analysis

Prof. Dr. Hans Rattinger Dipl.-Pol. Markus Steinbrecher FP6 CivicActive Relevance of participation Two important approaches in theories of democracy: –Input-oriented approaches: aim: maximum of turnout/participation low turnout/participation: declining support, symptom for a crisis –Output-oriented approaches: elections as an instrument for the allocation of power and legitimation of the political system low turnout/participation: satisfaction and consent with the political system  General evaluation of turnout/participation level is quite difficult.

Prof. Dr. Hans Rattinger Dipl.-Pol. Markus Steinbrecher FP6 CivicActive Turnout in EP election 2004 compulsory voting EU-turnout: 45.7%

Prof. Dr. Hans Rattinger Dipl.-Pol. Markus Steinbrecher FP6 CivicActive Development of EPE turnout (selected countries)

Prof. Dr. Hans Rattinger Dipl.-Pol. Markus Steinbrecher FP6 CivicActive Comparison of EPE and NPE turnout

Prof. Dr. Hans Rattinger Dipl.-Pol. Markus Steinbrecher FP6 CivicActive Database for analysis of turnout Mass survey from Intune-project Timing: March-April European countries: AT, BE, BG, DE, DK, EE, EL, ES, FR, HU, IT, PL, PT, SI, SK, SR, UK Turnout: last EPE, last NPE

Prof. Dr. Hans Rattinger Dipl.-Pol. Markus Steinbrecher FP6 CivicActive Logistic regression: Turnout EPE Nagelkerke‘s R 2 = Most important predictors: –Perceived duty to vote (EU/Nat.)+ –Strength of party identification+ –Media consumption+ –EU support+ –Internal efficacy+ –EU identity+ –Trust in EU institutions-

Prof. Dr. Hans Rattinger Dipl.-Pol. Markus Steinbrecher FP6 CivicActive Voter types

Prof. Dr. Hans Rattinger Dipl.-Pol. Markus Steinbrecher FP6 CivicActive Logistic regression: EPE-only (1) versus NPE-only (0) voters Nagelkerke‘s R 2 = Most important predictors: –Strength of party identification - –EU Identity+ –Satisfaction with democracy EU - –EU Benefit+ –Class+ –Perceived economic situation- –Urbanisation-

Prof. Dr. Hans Rattinger Dipl.-Pol. Markus Steinbrecher FP6 CivicActive Logistic regression: EPE- and NPE-voters (1) vs. NPE-only (0) voters Nagelkerke‘s R 2 = Most important predictors: –Perceived duty to vote (EU/nat.)+ –Media consumption+ –Strength of party identification+ –EU Identity+ –EU Support+ –Perceived economic situation - –Internal efficacy+

Prof. Dr. Hans Rattinger Dipl.-Pol. Markus Steinbrecher FP6 CivicActive Conclusions turnout EPE Important variables for turnout in EPE: –Perceived duty to vote –Strength of party identification –EU Identity/Support/Trust Possibilities to boost turnout in EPE: –Raise perceived importance of European level –Emphasise duty to vote

Prof. Dr. Hans Rattinger Dipl.-Pol. Markus Steinbrecher FP6 CivicActive Database for analysis of civic participation ESS, Round 1, 2002/03 17 EU member states: AT, BE, CZ, DE, DK, ES, FI, FR, GB, GR, HU, IE, IT, LU, NL, PL, PT, SE, SI 11 forms of non-electoral participation: contact politician, work in party, work in organisation, display badge, sign petition, public demonstration, boycott product, buy product, donate money, illegal protest, party member

Prof. Dr. Hans Rattinger Dipl.-Pol. Markus Steinbrecher FP6 CivicActive Rel. frequencies of non-electoral activities in the EU

Prof. Dr. Hans Rattinger Dipl.-Pol. Markus Steinbrecher FP6 CivicActive Number of non-electoral activities in EU countries

Prof. Dr. Hans Rattinger Dipl.-Pol. Markus Steinbrecher FP6 CivicActive Dimensions of non-electoral participation in the EU

Prof. Dr. Hans Rattinger Dipl.-Pol. Markus Steinbrecher FP6 CivicActive Multivariate regression: conventional participation R 2 = Most important predictors: –Strength of party identification+ –Internal efficacy+ –Social participation+ –Perceived duty to participate+ –Interest in politics+ –Woman- –Age+

Prof. Dr. Hans Rattinger Dipl.-Pol. Markus Steinbrecher FP6 CivicActive Multivariate regression: consumerism R 2 = Most important predictors: –Social participation+ –Woman+ –Interest in politics+ –Education+ –Income+ –Internal efficacy+ –Left-right-scale-

Prof. Dr. Hans Rattinger Dipl.-Pol. Markus Steinbrecher FP6 CivicActive Multivariate regression: protest activities R 2 = Most important predictors: –Social participation+ –Left-right-scale- –Age- –Strength of party identification+ –Income- –Internal efficacy+ –Religious attendance- –Perceived duty to participate+

Prof. Dr. Hans Rattinger Dipl.-Pol. Markus Steinbrecher FP6 CivicActive Multivariate regression: participation index R 2 = Most important predictors: –Social participation+ –Internal efficacy+ –Strength of party identification+ –Interest in politics+ –Left-right-scale- –Education+ –Income+

Prof. Dr. Hans Rattinger Dipl.-Pol. Markus Steinbrecher FP6 CivicActive Conclusions non-electoral participation Only minorities participate in non-electoral participation Social participation as important predictor for all non-electoral forms of participation Besides social participation: very heterogeneous explanations