Development of Aquatic Ecosystem Models Lizhu Wang, Shaw Lacy, Paul Seebach, Mike Wiley Institute for Fisheries Research MDNR and U of M

Project Objectives  Develop statewide models for predicting stream flows and summer water temperature;  Develop models describing relationships among base flow, water temperature, and trout population;  Test model sensitivity by incorporating site- specific data from Augusta Creek;  Evaluate effectiveness of catchment BMPs in offsetting ground water withdraw.

TROUT FLOW TEMPERATURE The Key Step: Describe relationships among flow, temperature, and trout

Build Statewide GIS Databases Identify stream measuring unit

Michigan 38,000 inter-confluence stream reaches 1:100,000 NHD

Build Statewide GIS Databases Delineate catchment boundaries for each unit

Reaches, Watersheds, Riparian Zones, and Upstream Catchments

Upstream Catchment Context

Build Statewide GIS Databases Synthesize landscape & instream characteristics for each stream unit

Reach of Interest

Synthesize Landscape Data  Land use/land cover  Surficial geology – texture & formation  Soil permeability  Bedrock depth & geology  Average annual growing degree days  Average annual precipitation  Air temperature  Ground water delivery potential – Darcy  Land use transformation model output

Synthesize Network & Instream Data  Arc gradient  Catchment gradient  Arc sinuosity  Arc stream order, linkage number  Arc fragmentation by dams and linkages with lakes and large rivers

Variables and Scales The database contain about 300 variables. The data are organized into 5 scales  Channel  Riparian (arc)  Riparian (entire)  Watershed (arc)  Watershed (entire) From Paul Steen, 2004

Build Sampled Databases Link sampled flow, temperature, and trout data with each stream unit

Develop Summer Water Temperature Model  Collected continuous summer water temperature from about 500 sites throughout Michigan.  Developed geo-statistical and generalized additive regression models for July mean ---- Temperature kriging + residual modeling (Mallow’s Cp, Min AIC).  Model explains 77% variance.

Michigan Stream Temp. Predictions 26.0º C 9.0º C

Flow Models  Multiple regression models for predicting annual and August 5%, 10%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 90%, 95% exceeding flows;  Models explain 78 – 97% variance. Based on 83 sites that have >20 years flow data

Annual Flow Predictions 90% Flow Yield

Stream Sites Sampled for Fish Community Based on fish data from about 1500 sites

July mean water temperature o C Link flow, Temperature, and Trout (hypothetical model) Cold Marginal Typical

ColdTypicalMarginal

July mean water temperature o C Link flow, Temperature, and Trout (hypothetical model) Cold Marginal Typical

ColdTypicalMarginal

Augusta Creek Watershed Max July Temp Difference 1)± 4°C (± 7.2°F) 2)± 7°C (± 12.6°F) 3)± 4°C (± 7.2°F) 4)± 11.5°C (± 20.7°F) 5)± 5°C (± 9°F) 6)± 10.5°C (± 18.9°F) 7)± 6.5°C (± 11.7°F) 8)± 8°C (± 14.4°F) 9)± 7.5°C (± 13.5°F) (trib) Gull Lake N

Summary  Identified stream measuring unit;  Delineated catchment boundaries of each unit;  Synthesized landscape & instream characteristics of each unit;  Linked sampled data for trout, flow, and tempertaure with each stream unit.  Developed models for prediction of flow and temperature.  Partially built models linking trout, flow, and temperatur.  Collected temperature and fish data from Augusta Creek.