Technological change and institutional implications Dag Standal SINTEF Fisheries and aquaculture

The ”Norwegian model” 1990-91: Rejected the introduction of a ITQ model 1991- : IVQ model - :Strong emphasis on: diverse ownership of quotas and vessels (rural policy) maintain a diverse fleet structure via the allocation policy (”the trawl ladder”) IVQ model: integrates vessels and quotas in one system (market) Input regulations (technology) and output (biology) are integrated. Main challenge in terms of capacity: balancing input and output regulations Cut down unprofitable overcapacity !

Table 1 Number of vessels above 28 meters and % change, 1988 and 2003. Length group(m) 1988 2003 % 28 - 39,9 232 93 -60 40 - 49,9 125 107 -14 50 - 59,9 74 74 0 60 - 43 88 +105 Total : 474 362 - 24 Reduction in number of vessels Structural changes

Table 2 Technical parameters for arctic trawlers built in 1988 – 2002 (cod/shrimp trawler). Building year : 1988 2002 1988-2002 Lenght (m): 61.50 64.00 1.04 Breadth (m): 12.80 16.60 1.30 Prod. cap (tons): 20 35 1.75 GRT: 1905 2574 1.35 HP: 3342 8046 2.41 Number of trawls 1 3 2.00 Catch (tons) 1000-1500 3000-4000 2-3 Trawl doors (tons): 4.5 7.0 1.56 Crew (number.): 14 14 1.00 Electronics: echo sounder echo sounder Catch sensor catch sensor trawl sensor GPS

Table 3 Development in size for different gears, 1988 - 2003 . Gear- Gear Gear dimension dimension factor (R) Gear 1988 2003 1998-2003 Shrimptrawl : 168 294 3.00 Cod trawl: 60 120 2.00 Blue whiting trawl: 1200 2400 4.00 Purse seine: 105 280 180 000 1.71 Long line: 20 000 35 000 1.75 Source: Norwegian gear producers and fishermen, 2004.

Tabell 4 Formula, estimating technical development

Tabell 5 Technical capacity development entire fleet above 28 meters, 1988 og 2003. Number vessels Capacity factor (K) Group capacity Capacity change Rel. change Length group 1988 2003 change% Net ch. Change. % Loa = 28 - 39,9m 232 93 -60 % 0.93 1.86 215 173 -43 -20 % -6 % Loa = 40 - 49,9m 125 107 -14 % 1,96 3,04 245 325 80 33 % 10 % Loa = 50 - 59,9m 74 0 % 3,80 5,11 281 378 97 34 % 12 % Loa ≥ 60 m 43 88 105 % 5.43 9.82 233 864 631 270 % 84 % Sum Ocean fleet 474 362 -24 %   1034 1865 832 82 % 100 %

Capacity calculations for the Norwegian Ocean going Fleet, 1988 and 2003

Institutional boundaries and technological adaptations, Norway. Unregulated species in Norwegian fisheries, 2004 (tons): Blue whiting : 852 000 Total Nowegian catch: 2 549 000 tons. Shrimp : 60 000 Tusk/ling : 27 000 Horse mackerel: 10 000 Other : 30 000 Total (unreg.) : 979 000= 38. 40 % of total ctach. Source, Fisheries Directorate, 2006. ”Technology does not follow the institutional boundaries” Combination of closed and restricted open access fisheries Capacity expanding adaptations !

Table 6 Norwegian catches blue whiting, 1988 and 2003.

Tabell 7 Norwegian catches shrimp, 1988 and 2003.

Capacity feedback systems Stock (border) TAC Cod, herring, mackerel, etc. Allocation policy (output) Institutional boundaries Structure policy (markets) Institutional boundaries Restricted open access / combined fisheries Restricted open access / combined fisheries Capacity (input) Capacity feedback Capacity feedback

The Unit Quota System, 1984-2006. Year : No. of quotas Duration No. of pr. vessel (years) quota-markets 1984-1997: 2 13 3 1997-2003: 3 18 3 2004 -2005: 3 eternal 1 2005- : 3 20/25 1

Developent, number of vessels and average quotafactors, cod trawlers, 1991-2006.

Distribution of quota factors, cod trawlers, 2006.

Future challenges- technological development? ”Stagnated technology” (path dependency and a predictable pattern) No paradigmatic innovations sice the 70’s (excpept for electronics, GPS etc.). Heavy fuel consumption, strong increase in fuel costs Deep sea fleet towards a critical mass in regard to innovations? No. Of vessels, 2008 2015 Cod / shrimp trawlers : 50 decline Herring/mackerel/blu whiting : 47 decline Long lining : 25 decline Loosing out of the national innovation system? The deep sea fleet as future market for todays manufacturers of equipment ? Further pressure on todays structural policy or a change towards ITQ.