Cloudy Skies: Assessing Public Understanding of Global Warming John D. Sterman

Simplified representation of the carbon cycle and global temperature 化石燃料 大氣與生物中的 碳元素 化石燃料消費 製造化石燃料 排放至大氣中 二氧化碳 大氣與海洋的熱能 隔熱 熱輻射效應 大氣與海洋溫度

More detailed representation of the carbon cycle and global temperature balance. 大氣中的碳 生物中的碳 排放至大氣的碳 化石燃料的碳 人類中的碳 混合層中的碳 海中的碳 溫度

Anthropogenic CO2 emissions ( 人類二氧化碳碳排放量 ) Figure 1 shows the worldwide emission rate of CO2 from fossil fuel combustion since 1950.

Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere 大氣中二氧化碳 Figure 2 shows the stock of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, along with a trend line generated by a global climate simulation model.

Global mean surface temperature 地球表面平均溫度 Figure 3 shows data on average global temperatures since 1950, along with a trend line

情境分析：將人類排放的二氧化碳 設為零

大氣中的二氧化碳

地球溫度的變化

The subject’s atmospheric CO2 trajectory is correct, but the global temperature is shown as following the same path, including a discontinuity in slope in the year Given the subject’s path for CO2, temperature could not peak until much later, after the CO2 concentration falls enough to bring net radiative forcing to zero.