Qualitative Verification of the Operational GFS and Ensemble Mean for 1200 UTC 13 March 2003 Mike Richards Metr 503.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Investigating medium-range forecast uncertainty and large error cases along the East coast using ensemble and diagnostic tools  Minghua Zheng, Brian Colle,

Advertisements

March 30, 2003 A Poorly Forecast Frontogenetically Forced Early Spring Snowstorm.

Qualitative Verification of the Operational GFS and Ensemble Mean Qualitative Verification of the Operational GFS and Ensemble Mean for 1200 UTC 13 March.

PDO/PNA The PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) is an index derived from North Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies and it has a high correlation to.

Analysis of Precipitation Distributions Associated with Two Cool-Season Cutoff Cyclones Melissa Payer, Lance F. Bosart, Daniel Keyser Department of Atmospheric.

Other Factors: Teleconnections “It’s not one teleconnection (indices etc.), it is all the players on the field that count (Joe Bastardi of Accu-Weather).”

14th ALADIN Workshop, Innsbruck 1-4 June 2004 First LAMEPS experiments at the Hungarian Meteorological Service Edit Hágel and Gabriella Szépszó Hungarian.

Using ensemble data assimilation to investigate the initial condition sensitivity of Western Pacific extratropical transitions Ryan D. Torn University.

Qualitative Verification of the Operational GFS and the Ensemble Mean 12UTC 13 March 2003 Serena Chew.

Lessons in Predictability: Part 2 The March 2009 “Megastorm” Michael J. Bodner, NCEP/HPC Camp Springs, MD Richard H. Grumm, NWS WFO State College, PA Neil.

An Investigation of Cool Season Extratropical Cyclone Forecast Errors Within Operational Models Brian A. Colle 1 and Michael Charles 1,2 1 School of Marine.

Wind stress distribution is similar to surface wind except magnitude of differences is greater. -Some differences exist between models and observations.

Climate Review for WY 2004 and Outlook for WY 2005 Philip Mote Climate Impacts Group University of Washington Annual Fall Forecast Meeting October 26,

Characteristics of an Anomalous, Long-Lived Convective Snowstorm Rebecca L. Ebert Department of Soil, Environmental, and Atmospheric Sciences University.

GFS (left), ECMWF (right) 500 mb Height, Winds, and Temp 00 hr forecast valid 12z 24 Dec 2010.

The Christmas Day Snowstorm of 2002 Meteorology 361 presentation.

GFS (green), ECMWF (blue) 500 mb height 00 hr forecasts 12z 24 Dec

CSTAR Update: New Tools for More Efficient Use of Ensembles in Operations Brian A. Colle, Minghua Zheng, and Edmund K.M. Chang, School of Marine and Atmospheric.

The Blizzard Discussion 1.Summary Discussion a. Medium Range Issues (Days 4-7) b. Short-Range Issues c. Ensemble trends d. Upstream differences.

GDAS analysis 500 mb height/absolute vorticity 00z 24 Dec 2010.

Meteorological Outlook, Lenny Pfister, NASA/ARC.

Phillip Bothwell Senior Development Meteorologist-Storm Prediction Center 3 rd Annual GOES-R GLM Science Meeting Dec. 1, 2010 Applying the Perfect Prog.

The MJO Not really….it’s The Madden Julian Oscillation.

Upper Air Charts By Tom Collow November 8, Reading Upper Air Charts Temperature (°C) Dewpoint Depression (°C) Height Wind direction and speed (knots)

Forecast Skill and Major Forecast Failures over the Northeastern Pacific and Western North America Lynn McMurdie and Cliff Mass University of Washington.

Ensemble products (at 12 hour intervals from 00 hr to 144 hrs): Africa Desk GFS Ensemble Web Page Spaghetti plots 500mb height (5500 and 5670, 5700 and.

“Nature Run” Diagnostics Thomas Jung ECMWF. Another “Nature Run” A large set of seasonal T L 511L91 integrations has been carried out for many summers.

QBO QBO 30 mb Zonal Wind Index QBO 50 mb Zonal Wind Index

Week in Review 8/28/13 to 9/4/13 John Cassano. Weather Situation – Strong upper level ridge over central US – Jet stream well north of US – Weak frontal.

Forecast Pressure. Pressure Observations ASOS is the best…the gold standard Ships generally the worst.

Team 1 Meteorologists Hilary Minor & Matt Sanders.

Course Evaluation Closes June 8th.

TEAM 4 POUNDER & LI. Mesoscale Discussion Valid for 1200UTC Thursday to 0000UTC Friday for the Chicago area A low pressure system is currently forming.

Using Standardized Anomaly Data in Operational Forecasting Mike Bodner NCEP/HPC Development Training Branch September 2011.

Robert LaPlante NOAA/NWS Cleveland, OH David Schwab Jia Wang NOAA/GLERL Ann Arbor, MI 15 March 2012.

Flight Planning Smoke/Aerosol Outlook SEAC4RS 2013 Prepared: 08/17/ hours CDT (13:00Z) Forecast period: Monday (8/19) David Peterson Marine Meteorology.

The Global Wind Oscillation April-May 2007 Edward Berry NOAA/NWS Dodge City, Kansas Klaus Weickmann NOAA/ESRL/PSD, Boulder, Colorado High Plains Conference.

GROUP # 3 UPDATED 02/20/2007 Xian Lu Justin Hampton Bryce Harrop Hang Lei.

2015. equator Normally, trade winds converge at the equator and push warm water westward. In the eastern Pacific, cold water rises to the surface - upwelling.

Ensemble variability in rainfall forecasts of Hurricane Irene (2011) Molly Smith, Ryan Torn, Kristen Corbosiero, and Philip Pegion NWS Focal Points: Steve.

Predictability of High Impact Weather during the Cool Season: CSTAR Update and the Development of a New Ensemble Sensitivity Tool for the Forecaster Brian.

Meteorological Overview for SEAC4RS Character and evolution of circulation during the experiment. – How is it different from an “average year”, how significant.

- 200 hPa geopotential heights in the GDAS analysis are lower than in CDAS between 20 o N to the South Pole hPa geopotential heights are consistently.

Madden/Julian Oscillation: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Forecasts Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP April 3, 2006.

Met Brief, Lenny Pfister Nick Heath. Outline Tomorrow’s flight – Convection – Surface temperatures – Convective outflow Friday’s flight – East.

The Over Forecast Advisory Event on St. Patricks Day Weekend 2013 NOAA’s National Weather Service Ron W. Przybylinski Science and Operations Officer Fred.

1 Summary of CFS ENSO Forecast September 2010 update Mingyue Chen, Wanqiu Wang and Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 1.Latest forecast of Nino3.4 index.

Development of a 1D ensemble forecast System with variational assimilation Mathias D. Müller Institute of Meteorology, Climatology & Remote Sensing University.

Forecast Pressure. Pressure Observations ASOS is the best…the gold standard Ships generally the worst.

STMAS Aviation Weather Testbed (AWT-2011) case: 25 July 2011 Highlight: A line of storms over nw NY at 12z is moving to the southeast with potential to.

1 Summary of CFS ENSO Forecast December 2010 update Mingyue Chen, Wanqiu Wang and Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 1.Latest forecast of Nino3.4 index.

1 Summary of CFS ENSO Forecast August 2010 update Mingyue Chen, Wanqiu Wang and Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 1.Latest forecast of Nino3.4 index.

- 200 hPa geopotential heights in the GDAS analysis are lower than in CDAS over most of the planet except the North American continent, particularly from.

Weather Regimes and Forecast Errors in the Pacific Northwest Lynn McMurdie (co-author Joe Casola) University of Washington.

Hemispheric Evolution and Origin of Extra-tropical Cyclone Errors Within NCEP Operational Models Brian A. Colle 1 and Michael Charles 1,2 1 School of Marine.

Ensemble variability in rainfall forecasts of Hurricane Irene (2011)

MID-LATITUDE WEATHER SYSTEMS: PART IV: SURFACE-UPPER AIR LINKAGE

The Christmas Day Snowstorm of 2002

Samuel Roback, Emily Padvorac, Danielle Dillane, Sinead Lockhart

Forecast Pressure.

Ensemble Situational Awareness Table and Other WR UpdatesHow I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Global Ensembles NAEFS Trevor Alcott Science and Technology.

The West Coast Thermal Trough

‘Son of Juan’ Precipitation system that hit Nova Scotia 6 to 12 hours after Juan’s impact Produced more precipitation than that of Juan in Shearwater,

Integration of NCAR DART-EnKF to NCAR-ATEC multi-model, multi-physics and mutli- perturbantion ensemble-RTFDDA (E-4DWX) forecasting system Linlin Pan 1,

Latitude and Longitude Learn to understand the latitude and longitude lines running across your maps and globes.

A Comparison of In-Situ Data with Meso-Scale Forecasts

El Niño/La Niña.

EPO THE EPO (East Pacific Oscillation index) Last winter, the EPO was the factor that ended up having its greatest impact on our pattern across the US.

CIFFC Telecon: # Adobe Connect:

Presentation transcript:

Qualitative Verification of the Operational GFS and Ensemble Mean for 1200 UTC 13 March 2003 Mike Richards Metr 503

Outline GFS Initialization 144 hour forecast - control run - ensemble mean - spaghetti plot 240 hour forecast - control run - ensemble mean - spaghetti plot 372 hour forecast - control run - ensemble mean

GFS Initialization 500 mb heights Zonal Jet over the Pacific Strong trough off western coast of U.S. Large ridge over the American and Canadian Rockies

Control Run and Ensemble Spread 144 h Fcst vt 1200 UTC 3/13/03 Very strong Zonal Jet over the Pacific Ocean Much of Zonal Jet and ridge have low ensemble spread Trough off west U.S. Coast not in high ensemble agreement

Ensemble Mean and Normalized Spread 144 h Fcst vt 1200 UTC 3/13/03 Strong Zonal Jet over Pacific Ocean has low Normalized Spread Strong trough has relatively low Normalized Spread Ridge over Rockies has very low Spread

Spaghetti Plot 144 h Fcst vt 1200 UTC 3/13/03 Spaghetti Plot shows all run variations in high agreement with position of zonal jet over the Pacific and with position of trough and ridge.

Control Run and Ensemble Spread 240 h Fcst vt 1200 UTC 3/13/03 Zonal Jet collapses over the Eastern Pacific. Still existent over Western Pacific. Trough off Western U.S. Coast disappears and Ridge over Rockies is replaced by a trough and cut-off low Little agreement amongst control runs

Ensemble Mean and Normalized Spread 240 h Fcst vt 1200 UTC 3/13/03 Zonal Jet still strong over Western Pacific. Jet begins to break apart over Eastern Pacific. Original trough and ridge no longer existent, relatively high normalized spread

Spaghetti Plot 240 h Fcst vt 1200 UTC 3/13/03 Spaghetti Plot shows run variations not in much agreement on trough and ridge position and Eastern Pacific zonal jet. Stronger agreement on Western Pacific zonal jet.

Control Run and Ensemble Spread 372 h Fcst vt 1200 UTC 3/13/03 Zonal jet has all but collapsed. 372 hr. fcst shows strong trough of Western U.S. Coast; strong ridge over U.S. and Canadian Rockies. Almost no agreement amongst control runs

Ensemble Mean and Normalized Spread 372 h Fcst vt 1200 UTC 3/13/03 Original trough and ridge are nonexistent. Zonal jet breaks up over Eastern Pacific; still slightly existent over Western Pacific. Little agreement for all positioning.

In Conclusion: All 144 hr. forecasts are in strong agreement for existence of zonal jet over the Pacific Ocean. Forecasts are also in strong agreement for position of ridge over Canadian and U.S. Rockies. There is agreement for the trough position albeit with a slightly higher spread. All 240 hr. forecasts shows are collapsing of the zonal jet over the Eastern Pacific, with the Western Pacific zonal jet sustaining. These forecasts also do not verify existence of a trough off the Western U.S. Coast and a ridge over the Canadian and U.S. Rockies. Agreement for all run variations is low. 372 hr. forecasts show relative elimination of zonal jet but a return of the original trough and ridge position. Agreement for all run variations is extremely low.