Assessing the Relationship between Population Growth and Economic Growth Karen Chang Chih Hua Chen Jessica Chen Derek Shum Gabriela Alcaraz Dennis Yue

Overview Problem: High population growth in developing countries Solution: Economic growth Expanded labor force that utilizes the productive capacity of women Reduces the need for large families to perform the tasks of subsistence

Our Research Developing countries: higher marginal productivity Average annual growth rate during : 4.1% in low-income countries 4.2% in middle-income countries 3.2% in high-income countries Trend: low-income countries will one day exceed the GDP of today’s high-income countries However, population growth in developing countries > developed countries Large increase in GDP in developing countries  GDP growth is offset by faster population growth Negative correlation: economic and population growth rates

Opposing Views As income increases, both the birth and death rates decrease. Since these forces are offsetting, the rate of population growth is independent of the rate of economic growth.

Variables in the Analysis Fertility : Birth rate Economic Growth : GDP per Capita Growth Regional Dummy Variables - to control for cultural differences across regions, religion dummy variables were incorporated in order to account for regional/cultural and religious differences which may influence birth rates. Secondary school enrolment of females: incorporated based on the findings that higher female education levels contribute to lower birth rates

Variable Included in the Analysis

Descriptive Statistics for Numerical Variables

Histogram of GDP per Capita Growth

Histogram of Birth Rate (per 1000 people)

Histogram of Secondary School Enrolment of Females

Regional Distribution of the Data

Distribution of Countries by Religion

Scatter Diagrams of the Numerical Variables

Correlation Results

Results of First Regression

Heteroskedasticity

Residuals vs. GDP per capita growth

Residuals vs. Secondary school enrolment of females

Full Model Results

Regression model results excluding Europe and N.A., Education and Catholic

White Heteroskedasticity test for full model

Regression birthrate vs. regional dummies

Regression birthrate vs. regional dummies, GDP and education

Final Regression Model

Regression model considering interaction between the variables

Conclusion Negative relationship between economic growth and population birth rates Female education levels  a negative relationship with population birth rates Religions that discourage the use of birth control such as Catholicism and Muslim religions have a significant positive effect on birth rates

The End Questions?