Broadband – unfinished story Les Vadasz 10/22/2003

Industry spiral Was: hardware - software spiral Now: hardware – software – communication spiral

Two worlds… Unregulated: –hardware and software industries Regulated: –Communications industries

Some gains… 1996 Telecom. Act. – not BB specific Open access – market vs. gov. mandate FCC current actions (fiber to RT) VoIP – issue re-opened Spectrum issues (unlicensed, flexible use)

The US is falling behind… S. Korea Hong Kong Japan Netherlands Singapore USA Germany Brazil China % Broadband % Other Internet Connection by Type Source: McKinsey, 2002 (%) Connected HHs

Goals… Technical: –Always-on, – Mbit with headroom, –symmetrical, –ubiquitous Business: –Consumer prices, –transport and apps. services separate

Reality check Desired future does not fit traditional carrier model –It will be resisted! Tech. industry is not good at this fight…

What is happening now? Wireless – mainly positive –More unlicensed spectrum –Some action on non-interfering use of licensed spectrum –WiFi/WiMAX Wired – a quagmire –Open access debates slow old structure deployment –Municipalities are waking up – this is good.

Quo vadis? Infrastructure drives national competitiveness US has no national policy on broadband Need vigilance!