Washington State Climate Change Impacts Assessment: HB 1303 Preliminary Findings JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group University of Washington Washington State University Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Climate science in the public interest UW Climate Impacts Group

WARMEST THANKS!! The Washington State Legislature. The Dept. of Ecology and the Dept. of Community, Trade and Economic Development. The leadership group at the expanded CIG: Co-P.I. Dennis Lettenmaier; Coordinators: Marketa McGuire Elsner, Jeremy Littell and Lara Whitely Binder. To the leaders and members of the ten sub-groups. We are honored!

WARMEST THANKS, cont’d. To the Bullitt Foundation; WA. Dept. of Ecology; King County; The NOAA Climate Program Office; (Our Conference Sponsors)

Overview What climate is and what climate change means What climate change puts at risk Why climate change is a fact Project description & team organization What is significant about the project? Overview of assessment (how assessment was conducted) Relationship with the Preparation and Adaptation Working Groups (PAWGs)

What climate is & what climate change means Climate is the pattern of weather, meaning averages, extremes, timing, spatial distribution of… hot & cold cloudy & clear humid & dry drizzles & downpours snowfall, snowpack, & snowmelt zephyrs, blizzards, tornadoes, & typhoons Climate change means altered patterns. [Changes in globally averaged temperature are one measure of GCC. Other measures will include items listed above. Small changes in the index  big changes in the patterns.] [Source: Holdren 2008]

What climate change puts at risk Climate governs (so climate change affects) availability of water productivity of farms, forests, & fisheries prevalence of oppressive heat & humidity formation & dispersion of air pollutants geography of disease damages from storms, floods, droughts, wildfires property losses from sea-level rise expenditures on engineered environments distribution & abundance of species [Source: Holdren, 2008]

Why Climate Change is a Fact The earth is getting hotter, both land and ocean. Atmospheric circulation patterns are changing. Permafrost is thawing. Arctic summer sea ice is thawing. Surface melting on Greenland is expanding. Sea level is rising. All of the above are forced by human emissions of Green House Gases (GHG) over last 250 years (IPCC, 2007). Source: Holdren

Evaluate current and proposed actions to reduce CO 2 emissions Make recommendations on improved preparedness and adaptation, including climate change impacts assessment in cooperation with UW Climate Impacts Group Background

Collaboration with State Agencies Funding Source: Clean Air/Clean Fuels House Bill 1303 Answers to FAQ regarding HB 1303 from the Washington State Legislature website:

Evaluate impacts of climate change for the 21 st century –use IPCC 2007 climate scenarios –show regional impacts and areas of high and low sensitivity to climate change –characterize barriers to adaptation to these impacts (e.g., legal, institutional) –provide tools for policy makers and user groups –collaborate with Governor’s Climate Change Challenge team Objectives of the Impacts Assessment

Project Team Forests (D. McKenzie, J. Littell) –CIG, UW, USFS, Univ. ID Coasts (D. Huppert) –CIG, UW Urban Stormwater Infrastructure (A. Steinemann, D. Booth) –UW, Stillwater Sciences, King Co. Water and Land Resources Div., Northwest Hydraulic Consultants Human Health (R. Fenske) –UW, WSU, Institute for Chemical Process and Envir. Tech. - Canada, CA Air Resources Board Adaptation (L. Whitely Binder) –CIG, UW Scenarios (E. Salathé, P. Mote) –CIG, UW, PNNL Hydrology and Water Resources (D. Lettenmaier, M. Elsner) –CIG, UW Energy – Hydropower (A. Hamlet) –CIG, UW Agriculture & Economics (Stockle, Scott) –WSU, USDA ARS, PNNL Salmon (N. Mantua) –CIG, UW

Assessment Overview: Study Region

What is Significant about This Project? Large scope & sector diversity. (Atmosphere, ocean, mountains, water, fish, trees, wheat, potatoes, apples, people and their $ all in a single package). Very high level of integration achieved. Use of ensemble of 20 climate models narrows uncertainty to considerable extent. Projected ranges of impacts at different locations and in different ecosystems quantified. First time data products of such fine resolution will be freely available on the internet in such an integrated fashion.

How, in general, the project was conducted: – downscale global climate scenarios to regional scenarios, feed those results into VIC and DHSVM, feed those results into forest, agriculture, stormwater, energy, health models)

Sectors Human Health Coasts Preliminary Adaptation Options Hydrologic Models Regional Climate Models Sectors Hydrology & Water Management Energy Preliminary Adaptation Options Sectors Urban Stormwater Infrastructure Preliminary Adaptation Options Sectors Agriculture & Economics Salmon & Ecosystems Forests Preliminary Adaptation Options Regional Climate Change Scenarios Precipitation, temperature Global Climate Models Sea Level Rise Scenarios Assessment Overview: Technical Approach

Sector Objectives (1) Scenarios –Projected changes in temperature and precipitation Hydrology and Water Resources –Projected impacts on snowpack, soil moisture, streamflow Energy –Projected impacts on hydropower production, heating and cooling demand Agriculture & Economics –Projected impacts on yields of potatoes, apples, wheat Salmon –Projected impacts on water temperature, flood and low flows Forests –Projected impacts on tree growth, regeneration, fire, and insect outbreaks

Sector Objectives (2) Coasts –Projected impacts on coastal homes, infrastructure, and commerce, through examination of several specific sites and physical threats Urban Stormwater Infrastructure –Projected impacts on the capacity of stormwater facilities, or the disabling of key assets because of more severe flooding Human Health –Projected impacts on illness and mortality related to heat and worsening air quality Adaptation –Discussion of opportunities that enhance existing PAWG recommendations or provide additional adaptation options related to these same themes

Relationship with PAWGs