How Can Policy Research Help the Department of Homeland Security? Jack Riley November 18, 2004

USC CREATE Meeting, Nov ember Homeland Security and Countering Terrorism Are Key Topics for RAND Research Hitting America’s Soft Underbelly The Potential Threat of Deliberate Biological Attacks Against the U.S. Agricultural and Food Industry PETER CHALK RAND Public Safety and Justice A Quick Guide Lynn E. Davis, Tom LaTourrette, David E. Mosher, Lois M. Davis, David R. Howell Chemical, Radiological, Nuclear, and Biological Terrorist Attacks RAND National Defense Research Institute A Component in the War on al Qaeda Paul K. Davis Brian Michael Jenkins RAND Project AIR FORCE Kim Cragin Sara A. Daly An Assessment of Group Motivations and Capabilities in a Changing World The Dynamic Terrorist Threat

USC CREATE Meeting, Nov ember Confronting Terrorism Requires a Role for Strategic Policy Planning Good analogy is the Cold War, where multiple different strategies (MAD, containment, etc) were tried Governments are generally bad at such planning –Even the creation of DHS does not fully concentrate responsibility Universities, think tanks and private sector were important to developing the Cold War strategy

USC CREATE Meeting, Nov ember Developing a Strategy Requires a Roadmap Political, Economic, Cultural Sources Strategy, Tactics, Capabilities Offensive/Foreign Military Strategy and Programs Intelligence Strategy and Programs Police and Justice International Development Political Actions Counter- and Non-Proliferation Defensive/Domestic Preventive Measures Response Measures Threat and Risk Analysis Threat Analysis Direct Action Support Denial Homeland Security

USC CREATE Meeting, Nov ember Homeland Security Each Component of the Roadmap Requires Research Political, Economic, Cultural Sources Strategy, Tactics, Capabilities Offensive/Foreign Military Strategy and Programs Intelligence Strategy and Programs Police and Justice International Development Political Actions Counter- and Non-Proliferation Defensive/Domestic Preventive Measures Response Measures Threat and Risk Analysis Threat Analysis Direct Action Support Denial

USC CREATE Meeting, Nov ember Homeland Security Each Component of the Roadmap Requires Research Political, Economic, Cultural Sources Strategy, Tactics, Capabilities Offensive/Foreign Military Strategy and Programs Intelligence Strategy and Programs Police and Justice International Development Political Actions Counter- and Non-Proliferation Defensive/Domestic Preventive Measures Response Measures Threat and Risk Analysis Why do they hate us? What makes them hate us more? Direct Action Support Denial

USC CREATE Meeting, Nov ember Each Component of the Roadmap Requires Research Political, Economic, Cultural Sources Strategy, Tactics, Capabilities Offensive/Foreign Military Strategy and Programs Intelligence Strategy and Programs Police and Justice International Development Political Actions Counter- and Non-Proliferation Defensive/Domestic Preventive Measures Response Measures Threat and Risk Analysis Why do they hate us? What makes them hate us more? Direct Action Support Denial How can we best allocate scare HS dollars? Does security deter?

USC CREATE Meeting, Nov ember Each Component of the Roadmap Requires Research Political, Economic, Cultural Sources Strategy, Tactics, Capabilities Offensive/Foreign Military Strategy and Programs Intelligence Strategy and Programs Police and Justice International Development Political Actions Counter- and Non-Proliferation Defensive/Domestic Preventive Measures Response Measures Threat and Risk Analysis Why do they hate us? What makes them hate us more? Direct Action Support Denial How can we best allocate scare HS dollars? Does security deter? How can we best reduce the supply of terrorists?

USC CREATE Meeting, Nov ember Is This Kind of Strategic Planning Occurring? The initial focus was on plugging the security gaps –Appears to be increasing focus on strategic planning issues The DHS Centers are an excellent start –The Centers do not completely address the issue of “high level policy architecture” –DHS and others should seek long-term, strategic partnerships with multiple organizations